I may be alone in this... but not only do I think the Marlins will likely NOT contend... I don't think they are a better team than the Mets are.
This isn't to say the Mets are better than the Marlins. This is to say that they are fairly even teams with some things that could push either team above the other. And to count ONE as a playoff contender and not the other is pretty unfair.
So I'll be breaking down the two teams and looking at some of what we could expect. Let's take a little look at some of the comparisons.
FIRST BASE:
NY METS: Ike Davis
MIAMI MARLINS: Gabby Sanchez
So we have two young players who have both shown some promise here. Davis has a VERY solid rookie season and if he can hit like he did in the 36 games he played last year (.302/.383/.543) then he's an All-Star candidate. He's also an excellent glove at first. Sanchez is a decent
EDGE: METS
SECOND BASE:
NY METS: Daniel Murphy
MIAMI MARLINS: Omar Infante
Murphy won't hit for much power and he does need to up his walk total,but as he's shown over the last three seasons, when he's healthy... he hits. He's more than capable of batting .325 rather easily. His defense isn't too good... he fields fine but turning double plays and making the pivit is an adventure every time. It couyld be worse. He could field like Dan Uggla. He needs to improve on this. Infante
EDGE: METS
SHORTSTOP:
NY METS: Ruben Tejada
MIAMI MARLINS: Jose Reyes
Wow it was weird typing that. Yeah, I'm not going to do anything stupid like comparing these two. Reyes is one of the best shortstops in baseball and when he's fully healthy is one of the most dynamic players period. If he's healthy this season (and you do have to say "if". Let's face it, there HAS to be some concern considering his history the last few years) then he should put up solid numbers and create his usual havoc on the basepaths. Tejada posted a .360 OBP in 2011 and isn't likely to hit much, but should be capable of getting on base at a fairly decent clip. Remember, he's only 21 years old. He doesn't have any power, but his glove is fantastic and he could very well turn out to be one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. Reyes is no slouch with the glove himself and is better than average as a defender. I think the Mets could do worse at shortstop and should be in fairly decent hands... but he's not even half of what Reyes is.
EDGE: MARLINS
THIRD BASE:
NY METS: David Wright
MIAMI MARLINS: Hanley Ramirez
David Wright had a lousy 2011. Amazingly, Hanley Ramirez might have had a worse one. The major difference? Ramirez is playing a position he doesn't want to play and is also a fairly large malcontent on his team. His attitude stinks. He's a whiner and a dogger. He's going to be over shadowed bt Jose Reyes and he knows it and it bothers him. He's also a defensive liability. Wright, is a stand up guy and a hard worker. His attitude is tremendous. He's pretty much the unquestioned leader of his team. He's got a good glove, but a lousy arm. I expect both to have seasons much closer to what we'd expect. There's also a chance both could find themselves on other teams before the season is out. I give Wright the edge here for two reasons... he won't be a blight on his own team and he won't be a guy who slips into dog-it mode when he's not interested.
EDGE: METS
CATCHER:
NY METS: Josh Thole
MIAMI MARLINS: John Buck
Neither catcher is anything special. Both has shown small samples of some power, but not consistantly. Both have decent gloves and call decent games. The only reason I give Thole the nod here is because his
EDGE: METS
CENTERFIELD:
NY METS: Andres Torres
MIAMI MARLINS: Emilio Bonifacio
EDGE: MARLINS
RIGHTFIELD:
NY METS: Lucas Duda
MIAMI MARLINS: Mike Stanton
I think Duda is going to be a soild bat for the Mets in 2012. He has power enough to project for 28/30 home ruins over the course of an entire season. His defense isn't great though. He's not a disaster, but he's not going to impress much with his glove either. Mike Stanton is... well... he's likely to be a legit MVP candidate. If he can continue on the trend he's been on he last two years, then he's going to be a feared bat. His batting average is going to be a little low (think .262 or so) and his strike outs are a bit of a concern. With 166 of them last year and 123 in only 396 at-bats the year before, you'd like to see him try and lower that total. Overall though, he's liely the new Adam Dunn. I can see him hitting 40 home runs. Duda is going to be good. Stanton already is and might be great.
EDGE: MARLINS
LEFTFIELD:
NY METS: Jason Bay
MIAMI MARLINS: Logan Morrison
Not that Morrison is anything major to write home about, but Bay needs to show he remembers how to play baseball before we can trust him at all. No real way to defend him right now.
EDGE: MARLINS
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