Life is Just a Fantasy: The Draft – Rounds 17 through 24

And without further adu, the last installment of my draft analysis.

Once you start getting to the late rounds, people figure things are more of a crap shoot. It’s easy to almost dismiss the last few rounds and figure “I can always just do a drop/add from the waiver wire.” I look at the late rounds as a place to experiment a little and take some risks.

ROUND SEVENTEEN

1. Gordon Beckham
2. Jeff Francoeur
3. Mark Buehrle
4. Elvis Andrus
5. Billy Butler
6. Barry Zito
7. Todd Helton
8. Scott Kazmir
9. Julio Borbón
10. Carlos Peña

With my main positions filled at this point, I’m looking for an everyday bat for the INF and UTL positions as welll as another outfield bat since I have some uncertainty there. Rounds 17-20 are pretty important rounds because most guys you get early are going to give you numbers… but it’s the smart drafting in the late rounds (as well as the risk takers who’s risks pan out) that help win fantasy championships. Francoeur looks very happy in New York and looks primed for a decent season, but the lack of walks and higher strikeouts keep me away. Carlos Pena is somehow still on the board and I’m so tempted… his HR and RBI numbers are fantastic and I start wondering if I should make Pena the new Adam Dunn. Upon second thought I really don’t like the idea of the .227 average and 163 strike outs shreding my draft stategy and figure Billy Butler’s more level numbers fit my team better. He had 18 less home runs than Pena but only 7 less RBI, hit 74 points higher in average (.301 to .227) and struck out 60 less times. I’ll give up the extra 18 to 20 HRs for that type on consistancy across the board. Pena goes in the round anyway and is a good pick for the 17th round, as is Mark Buehrle, who had a nice season last year.

ROUND EIGHTEEN

1. Matt Capps
2. Paul Konerko
3. Nyjer Morgan
4. Edwin Jackson
5. Magglio Ordóñez
6. Chris Coghlan
7. John Danks
8. Frank Francisco
9. Cody Ross
10. Ben Sheets

Looking to grab a sleeper in this round, I grabbed 2009 Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan, who led the major leagues in average (.373) and hits (113) after the all-star break last year. While I do worry about a sophomore slump, I think he’s worth the risk in this round. He doesn’t seem to have a lot of power (only 9 HRs in 504 at bats) but his high average and low strike out total (only 77 in that same 504 at bats) fits right in with my strategy. As soon as I make the pick I realize I had forgotten about Ben Sheets. After the risk I took with Brandon Webb in the 16th round, it weas better for me to have waited on another high risk/high reward pitcher but I promise myself that I will grab Sheets if he’s there in the next round as I wanted him VERY badly. However he goes with the last pick of the round.

ROUND NINETEEN

1. Vladimir Guerrero
2. Gavin Floyd
3. Tim Hudson
4. Juan Pierre
5. Billy Wagner
6. Álex Ríos
7. Brad Hawpe
8. Carlos González
9. Scott Feldman
10. David Price

With Sheets gone, I look to round out my bullpen and I’m pleased to see Billy Wagner still there. Wagner looked very good last year with the Mets and Red Sox and if he’s going to be healthy I see 30-35 saves in his future this year as the Braves, with a very good pitching staff, should contend. In fact, I would say I got a better value with Wagner in round 19 then the manager who drafted Valverde in the 12th round. It was curious to see Juan Pierre go in this round as he’s not assurred to be a starter for the White Sox.

ROUND TWENTY

1. Jay Bruce
2. Casey McGehee
3. Plácido Polanco
4. Leo Núñez
5. Felipe López
6. Brett Anderson
7. Neftali Feliz
8. James Loney
9. Kevin Correia
10. Corey Hart

This looks like a nicely done round by a lot of the managers. Some light risks and sleeper potential go in this round. I’m very happy to grab one of my sleeper hopefuls in Brett Anderson. Anderson has been a very highly touted prospect and had a decent 2009 for a not so great A’s team. He was very solid in the 2nd half and I think a 13-9, 175 K, 3.85 ERA, 1.22 WHIP season is not out of the question and he will be a nice lower end starter for me. Some very good picks go in this round like Polanco, who will be hitting in a great Phillies lineup; McGehee, who looks like he’s developing into a solid player and Hart, who I expect to bounce back from a lousy 2009.

ROUND TWENTY-ONE

1. J.J. Putz
2. Rickie Weeks
3. Orlando Hudson
4. Hiroki Kuroda
5. Carlos Quentin
6. A.J. Pierzynski
7. Carlos Ruiz
8. Ted Lilly
9. Joel Piñeiro
10. Derek Lowe

Another round where managers get some good value. Putz goes with the first pick of the round which makes little sense to me as he’s not a closer and we do not have holds in this league as a stat. I grab Quentin because of his potential and I hope he’ll be injury free and be able to return closer to his 2008 number where he was an MVP candidate. Joel Pinerio goes in this round showing that despite a solid 2009, no one has much faith he’ll repeat that success.

ROUND TWENTY-TWO

1. Juan Rivera
2. Troy Glaus
3. Geovany Soto
4. Joe Blanton
5. Scott Rolen
6. Ryan Doumit
7. Mike Lowell
8. Yunel Escobar
9. Ian Stewart
10. Yadier Molina

We’re in the home stretch and I set my sights on a back-up catcher in this round and since Geovany Soto is still available I want him thinking his horrible 2009 will be much improved upon. He goes before I can get him so I grab Ryan Doumit instead. Nice value as he really is a top ten catcher and he’s actually my back up. I’m in good shape for the position even with an injury. I like the Mike Lowell pick here because I think Lowell will be traded and get a starting role somewhere and put up decent numbers for a 22nd round pick. I also like the Escobar pick as he should have enough good numbers to have been worth a pick back in the 17th to 18th round.

ROUND TWENTY-THREE

1. Kevin Slowey
2. Nolan Reimold
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Rod Barajas
5. Rajai Davis
6. Randy Wolf
7. Kazuo Matsui
8. Ricky Romero
9. Erik Bedard
10. Johnny Cueto

I’m pretty happy to get A’s young outfielder Rajai Davis here as he’s got excellent speed (41 SBS on only 390 at bats) and a good average (.305). He projects as a starter and had a solid 2nd half. He becomes my other speed demon with Bourn. Over a 575 at bat season he should be able to steal 55 bases or so. I like the Arroyo, Matsui and Bedard picks here. All are worth a flyer this late and could bring about some nice numbers for such a low end pick.

ROUND TWENTY-FOUR

1. Adrián Béltre
2. J.A. Happ
3. Clint Barmes
4. Francisco Liriano
5. Brad Penny
6. Hideki Matsui
7. Orlando Cabrera
8. Jason Marquis
9. Randy Wells
10. Mark Teahen

Some VERY good picks in this round. I like the Beltre, Liriano, Penny and Marquis picks here. In fact, getting Marquis in this round is outstanding. He should have gone back by the 18th round. I grab Matsui for one main reason. His numbers last year were very good and he’s projected to play some outfield. In this league I only need 5 games started in the OF and he becomes eligable to list as an outfielder. His 28 HRs and 90 RBI with a decent average and decent strike out totals make him a nice last round pick.

So my team looks like this (We start a full infield, four outfielders, a infield spot and a utility spot for hitter, then 3 SP, 2 RP and 3 P open slots for pitchers at one given time):

Catcher: Brian McCann
1st Base: Miguel Cabrara
2nd Base: Chase Utley
Shortstop: Jason Bartlett
3rd Base: Aramis Ramirez
Infield: Billy Butler
Outfield: Torii Hunter
Outfield: Michael Bourn
Outfield: Johnny Damon
Outfield: Chris Coghan
Utility: Carlos Quentin
Bench: Carlos Beltran
Bench: Hideki Matsui
Bench: Rajai Davis
Bench: Ryan Doumit

Starting Pitcher: Dan Haren
Starting Pitcher: Chris Carpenter
Starting Pitcher: Jon Lester
Relief Pitcher: Carlos Marmol
Relief Pitcher: Chad Qualls
Pitcher: James Sheilds
Pitcher: Brett Anderson
Pitcher: Billy Wagner
Bench: Brandon Webb

Basically it comes to this… I have a solid and well balanced team. My two big risks in Beltran and Webb could either hold back my team as wasted picks or could thrust me towards the top if both do what i think they will both do, and that is be healthy and produce by mid-May throught the rest of the season. I do lament blowing it with some of the guys I really wanted (ie: Lackey) but overall I’m happy with the team. Keeping a close eye on the waiver wire and grabbing those “out of nowhere” players that always crop up every season will be key to stay as competitive as possible.

Life is Just a Fantasy: Draft Anxiety

As I stated last month, I’m going to be documenting (pretty much step by step) an entire draft for one of my fantasy baseball teams. The team I’ll be cronicaling will be The New York Geckos in one of the Yahoo Baseball leagues I’m in (the one I’m Commissioner of actually).

Tonight is the draft for this league. We have ten teams and everyone involved is fairly well versed in baseball knowledge. I’m not quite as well prepared for this draft as I have been in past years. Usually by draft day I have read about six or seven draft strategy guides, done a few mock drafts and complied a draft bible. My preperations have served me well in the past… I have finished within the top three of the majority of leagues I have participated in over the last ten years, including at least seven championships. I usually play in anywhere from two to four leagues every year (and did as many as six one year and will NEVER do that again). This year I have settled on three.

So not being quite as prepared has me a little nervous. Things have been a little too busy to have gone through my normal routine and I’m way behind schedule. I will be going into tonight partly blind… armed with only a basic prep, s few sleepers and the injury history of some key players who I will look to steal on the cheap and gamble they will recover early enough to be worth the risk.

My regular draft strategy is simple. I go after a five tool player first. A Hanley Ramierez or a David Wright type that will give me average, some power, some speed and good on base percentage. I go after the weaker positions early, but not TOO early as to over-rate the value of a mid rounder just because he’s in a weak position. For example, if I don’t get one of the top catchers early… I’ll wait until the later rounds since the position is fairly even after the top three or four guys are off the board.

I tend to value starting pitching very high and will often have two starting pitchers drafted by the 4th round and usually three pitchers by the 7th. On the other hand I do not draft closers early and I have a very strict rule about drafting closers. I refuse to draft one before the 12th round and usually wait until the 14th or so before picking my first. Too many closers get hurt or lose their job every year to waste higher end picks on them . In fact, After Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Paplebon, I won’t touch a closer in the draft before the 15th round most likely. Even if there is a huge run on closers (in this leagues draft last year six closers were gone by the 7th round) I stick to my guns. I will not overpay for saves.

So going into tonight brings a few nervous ticks to the surface. One of my friends, Chris, posted on the league boards that he was getting a little “Draft Anxiety” (a term which I think is brilliant). You have to beware of this feeling since it will often cause you to panic when you see an early run on short stops and you wind up drafting a Jason Bartlett in the 5th round because you are concerned about getting a good SS, While you will get a good player, he would NOT be worth a 5th rounder and you will wind up overpaying for him. Better to wait another few rounds and wind up with a Yunel Escobar who would be a decent value in the 10th or 11th round.

In any case, the best thingto do is come up with your draft strategy and stick to it. Don’t let the bizarre drafting styles of your fellow managers change your plans. You need to look to draft a balanced team with a slant towards a particular stat. For me, I look to do well in the pitching catagories and I tend to draft low ERA, good WHIP high STRIKEOUT pitchers. I tend to try and lean towards hitters with good batting averages and lower strikeout totals which will help their on base percentage and runs scored totals.

One thing I can almost predict… odds are I will wind up with Adam Dunn. His HUGE strike out totals and (usually) low batting average goes against my normal draft plan, but people ALWAYS seem to let him drop to the lower rounds and If I get him in the 10th round, that is a STEAL. you know he’s good for 40 HRs and 100RBI. I’ll handle the lousy other areas to get those numbers to help those particular stat catagories. I wouldn’t draft him too high, but if he’s there in the 9th round? I’m grabbing him. I’ve had him on almost every team over the last five years and he rarely hurts me.

I’ll be back on tonight to let you know how the draft went. I’ll be keeping a live journal that I’ll post later as each round goes and my thoughts on how it’s going.

Life is Just a Fantasy: The Early Rankings

So it’s February which is, for most hardcore baseball fans, the worst month of the year. Most or all of the free agents that can make even a small impact on a team is signed, Pitchers and catchers are still a few weeks away and no real baseball activity is going on. However that does make it the perfect time to start thinking about your Fantasy Baseball draft. It’s never too early!

Anyway, since we all have to start thinking about who should be at the top of our fantasy wish lists, I thought I’d list my early top tweleve players per position. These ranks are subject to change once spring training comes around and performance, health and other issues come to light.

Let’s get to it.

STARTING PITCHER
1. Tim Lincecum – SF Giants
2. Roy Halladay - PHI Phillies
3. Felix Hernandez – SEA Mariners
4. Dan Haren – ARI Diamondbacks
5. Justin Verlander – DET Tigers
6. C. C. Sabathia – NY Yankees
7. Cliff Lee – SEA Mariners
8. Johan Santana – NY Mets
9. Zach Greinke – KC Royals
10. Chris Carpenter – STL Cardinals
11. Jon Lester – BOS Red Sox
12. Brandon Webb – ARI Diamondbacks

Ok, I know right off the bat these are gonna blow some people’s minds. I doubt anyone would argue the top four that much. Lincecum has proven himself to be flat out amazing and Halladay, who already was one of the best will only benefit from pitching in the NL and with that offense backing him up. In fact, if Halladay wasn’t a slight injury concern, I would have listed him as #1. I listed Verlander as high as I did because I just saw some serious domination from him in 2009 that I think will increase in 2010. I have Greinke listed as low as I do because the Royals are still terrible and I’d like to see him be as dominate two years in a row before I consider him to be a no brainer. Santana would have ranked higher if there wasn’t a little concern about him coming back from injury. Webb made the cut over names like Adam Wainwright and Josh Johnson mainly because if he is healthy (and Arizona is reporting he’ll be ready for spring training) he’s one of the best in baseball. In fact he would be six or seven spots higher if there was no injury he was returning from.

FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals
2. Miguel Cabrara – DET Tigers
3. Mark Teixeria – NY Yankees
4. Adrian Gonzales – SD Padres
5. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers
6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies
7. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins
8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds
9. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox
10. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants
11. Victor Martinez – BOS Red Sox
12. Mark Reynolds – ARI Diamondbacks

Anyone who would argue #1 shouldn’t be allowed to talk so I’ll skip that. I picked Cabrara over Teixeria mainly because I view him as a mini-Pujols and expect a hell of a year from him. Gonzales is a rising super-star who I think will not only rise above his 2009 production but will also be traded by the trade deadline to a contender and that will increase his value. I think Morneau isn’t given enough credit for being such a great hitter and his injury from 2009 will not linger. Sandoval and Martinez will also be avaialbale at the catcher position and will rank higher there but are still good choices at 1st. Reynolds strikes out a ton but it’s hard to argue with his HR, RBI and Run totals.

SECOND BASE
1. Chase Utley – PHI Phillies
2. Ian Kinsler – TEX Rangers
3. Brandon Phillips – CIN Reds
4. Dustin Pedroia – BOS Red Sox
5. Brian Roberts – BAL Orioles
6. Robinson Cano – NY Yankees
7. Ben Zorbist – TAM Rays
8. Aaron Hill – TOR Blue Jays
9. Jose Lopez – SEA Mariners
10. Dan Uggla – FLA Marlins
11. Ian Stewert – COL Rockies
12. Howie Kendrick – LA Angels

As with 1st base no one will argue with Chase at #1. Phillips is a very balanced player and Roberts’ average, OBP, speed and runs lift him over the at-times inconsistant Cano. Uggla’s stikeouts and poor fielding hurts but 30 HR and 95 RBI at the 2nd base positions is hard to pass up. This is either the year that Kendrick stays healthy and shows how important that sweet swing of his can be or the year the Angels give up on him altogether.

SHORTSTOP
1. Hanley Ramirez – FLA Marlins
2. Jose Reyes – NY Mets
3. Troy Tulowitski – COL Rockies
4. Derek Jeter – NY Yankees
5. Jimmy Rollins – Phi Phillies
6. Jason Bartlett – TAM Rays
7. Yunel Escobar – ATL Braves
8. Elvis Andrus – TEX Rangers
9. Stephen Drew – ARI Diamondbacks
10. Alexi Ramirez – CHI White Sox
11. Asdrubal Cabrera – CLE Indians
12. Erick Aybar – LA Angels

Despite a year that was below expectations, Ramirez continues to be the cream of the crop. Reyes seems 100% healthy as seems determined to earn back the statis he held when being picked in the first round for a few years and I think he will return to that level. Tulowitski benefits from his home stadium but his overall numbers were prtty solid in 2009, showing that he was back to normal after prior struggles in 2008. Jeter is aging very well, and a high average and runs scored plus hitting in that Yankee lineup is wonderful. Rollins’ production has decreased every year for the last three years but he still puts up solid enough numbers in a weak position. Bartlett is the last of the better choices and the position gets thin from there.

THIRD BASE
1. Alex Rodriguez – NY Yankees
2. Evan Longoria – TAM Rays
3. David Wright – NY Mets
4. Ryan Zimmerman – WAS Nationals
5. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants
6. Kevin Youkillis – BOS Red Sox
7. Aramis Ramierz – CHI Cubs
8. Mark Reynolds – ARI Diamondbacks
9. Chone Figgins – SEA Mariners
10. Michael Young – TEX Rangers
11. Chipper Jones – ATL Braves
12. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins

A-Rod’s 2009 was nothing short of incredible. Not his numbers, which were good, if unspectacular, but because of the way the year started with his steriod scandal but ended with him having a great postseason performance and a world series championship. Longoria had a fantastic start to 2009 but had a little bit of a rough 2nd half and is still one of the brightest players in all of MLB. Wright’s 2009 was an abberation and while I don’t expect 30+ home runs a .315, 24, 105, 25 SB season is more than within reason. Sandoval, Youkillis and Reynolds are eligable at multiple positions so that makes them even more valuable. Jones would have ranked higher if he could just stay healthy. His bat is still ultra dangerous.

OUTFIELD
1. Ryan Braun – MIL Brewers
2. Matt Kemp – LA Dodgers
3. Matt Holliday – STL Cardinals
4. Jacoby Ellsbury – BOS Red Sox
5. Carl Crawford – TAM Rays
6. Justin Upton – ARI Diamondbacks
7. Jason Werth – PHI Phillies
8. Grady Sizemore – CLE Indians
9. Jason Bay – NY Mets
10. Ichiro Suzuki – SEA Mariners
11. Adam Lind – TOR Blue Jays
12. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals

This position was much harder than I would have thought. Braun was the no doubt #1. He’s a seriously scary hitter And his 1/2 punch with Fielder reminds me of the Manny/Big Papi duo of 2003/2004. Kemp’s star is rising and the SBs keep him just above Holliday, who will enjoy a full season in St. Louis with Pujlos. Carlos Beltran would have actually placed at either #2 or #3 before he went down for surgery, but I cannot put him in the top 15 until we see how fast he comes back and how well he recovers. Ellsbury ranks ahead of Crawford here because I think his power will increase and his SB output is higher, but they really are interchangeable. However NEITHER ONE is a first round pick so don’t waste it there. The next few spots are also interchangable to a point depending on your desire for speed or power. Suzuki’s high average isn’t enough to offset the decrease in SBs for him and Lind and Dunn’s high power numbers let them top off the rankings. Lind might break 40 HRs this year and Dunn’s numbers are so consistant you know what they will be. 40 home runs and 100 RBI with the occasional SB to help take the sting away from the likely .250 BA and high strike outs.

CATCHER
1. Joe Mauer – MIN Twins
2. Victor Martinez – BOS Red Sox
3. Brian McCann – ATL Braves
4. Matt Wieters – BAL Orioles
5. Miguel Montero – ARI Diamondbacks
6. Jorge Posada – NY Yankees
7. Ryan Doumit – PIT Pirates
8. Geovany Soto – CHI Cubs
9. Kurt Suzuki – OAK A’s
10. Mike Napoli – LA Angels
11. Bengie Molina – SF Giants
12. Russell Martin – LA Dodgers

Joe Mauer is the best pure hitter in baseball. Yes there is always a little injury risk with him but the guy can flat out HIT. Martinez will play a little 1st and DH on occasion to keep him fresh as possible and he is back to his normal production. McCann is still a solid plus at the plate. After him though, it gets a little more hazy. Wieters should improve and a .280, 22 HR season is not out of the question at all. Montero is decent but Posada, despite very good numbers will get less chances to DH then I would have expected since the Yanks have Nick Johnson logjamming that position. A DL stint is likely for Posada but his numbers should by similar enough to 2009 that he’s worth more than the rest of the position ranked after him. In fact, after Doumit and maybe Soto the rest are a total crapshoot. Soto needs to regain that power stroke that helped him so much in 2008 and Doumit needs a full season without injury. If you do not get one of the top five or six guys here, do not panic and draft someone too early for the sake or grabbing a catcher. After Posada the numbers will all be just about the same most likely. Wait until the much later rounds.

RELIEF PITCHER
1. Marino Rivera – NY Yankees
2. Joe Nathan – MIN Twins
3. Jonathan Papelbon – BOS Red Sox
4. Francisco Rodriquez – NY Mets
5. Jonathan Broxton – LA Dodgers
6. Joakim Soria – KC Royals
7. Heath Bell – SD Padres
8. Huston Street – COL Rockies
9. Jose Valverde – DET Tigers
10. Francisco Cordero – CIN Reds
11. Andrew Bailey – OAK A’s
12. Trevor Hoffman – MIL Brewers

Rivera is a machine. Don’t bother doubting him and he’ll have a lot of save oppertunities. Nathan and Papelbon are still as solid as they come despite their postseason struggles. K-Rod will have more leads to protect this year with 65% of the team back from injury and I expect a bounce back from his sub-par 2nd half. Broxton and Street also had postseason struggles but are a good source of saves. If Soria was on a better team he would be ranked higher, but still expect 30 from him anyway. Bell is way under valued and the Giants will be decent enough this year. Valverde will be good for the Tigers and I expect him to do fine in the AL. The best advice I can give for RPs is this: DO NOT DRAFT A CLOSER BEFORE THE 12th ROUND. Every year a few closers go down to injury or lose their jobs and cheap saves can ALWAYS be found. Do NOT overpay for saves people. There is always decent value in the late rounds.