April 8th - Mets 4 Braves 0 - The Good, The Bad & The Ugly

After taking two out of three from The Reds, the Mets traveled to the den of horror that is Turner Field, a place the Mets usually do not fare well in. The Braves have gotten off to a good start, despite some serious blows to their starting rotation in spiring training. The Mets sent Bartolo Colon up against Arron Harang.

THE GOOD
BARTOLO COLON: An excellent start where he was borderline dominating, Colon kept the Mets' streak of quality starting pitching going. He threw 7 innings of shutout, no walk/5 strikeout ball and looked good doing it, keeping the Braves lineup off balance the whole night.

TRAVIS D'ARNAUD: FINALLY. d'Arnaud broke his hitless streak to start the season with TWO hits (including a double). He did look better overall at the plate, but I wouldn't say he's turned the corner just yet.

THE BULLPEN: Farnsworth to Valverde. Two innings, no runs. Valverde made it a little too interesting in the end by throwing a potential game ending double play ball into centerfield, but with the basesloaded and only one out, he got the job done and preserved the shutout.

RUBIN TEJADA: Two hits, two runs, two RBI (and even a walk). He played a part in all four runs tonight and looked very good at the plate. I have no real faith this is a trend that will continue though. I still want Stephen Drew. ah well.

THE BAD
THE BATS: Looking at the batting average of some of the regulars (Young Jr: .174, Murphy: .250, Wright: .192, Granderson: .154, Duda: .167, d'Arnaud: .105) it's very evident the Mets are not hitting well. Wright and Murphy will both come around, but some of the other need to step things up.

THE UGLY
Since I already put the Bats in the "Bad" column, I think for one night, there's really no true "ugly". Hey, a shutout win of the Braves IN Turner Field? Hard to find something ugly with that.

Playoff Predictions: The NLDS

Yesterday I looked at the ALDS and made some obversations and predictions. Today, let’s take a look at the National League Division Series.

NLDS: ATLANTA BRAVES VS. SAN FRANCISCO
For a while there there was some doubt that either of these teams would make the playoffs. The Braves, who once had a pretty decent lead (at one point it was 7 games) over the Phillies in the NL East, gave it all up and finished 6 games in back of them. They also then coughed up the Wild Card lead a few times in late Sept and on the 2nd to last day of the season before winning it on the last day. The Giants also flirted with both 1st place in the NL West and the Wild Card lead a few times in September before manging to take control in the last week and then almost coughing it up and the Padres (needing a sweep in the last series of the regular season against SF) won the first two games and held their destiny in their own hands before the Giants prevailed with a 3-0 win on the last day of the season.
Both teams have very simular characteristics. Both pitch very well. Both have strong bullpens. Both struggle at times to hit and score runs. Both have highly touted rookies (Buster Posey and Jason Heyward) that are big parts to their offenses.
The Braves have had two huge injuries that create some stress on their lineup. First they lost the face of their franchise in 3rd Baseman Chipper Jones to a season ending injury over the summer, then they lost All-Star Martin Prado in September. Without either one of them, the Braves really have some serious offensive holes. Basically they have to mostly rely on Heyward, thrust into his first postseason in his rookie year as basically “the man” and All-Star catcher Brian McCann. The Braves added a few bats at the trade deadline (and after) in outfielder Rick Ankiel and 1st Baseman Derrek Lee but besides a few nice hits here and there, neither has really gotten hot. It’s not hard to pitch around the Braves lineup.
The Giants aren’t too much better off at first glance. 2009 phenom Pablo Sandoval couldn’t seem to hit anything but buffet tables, Aaron Rowand continued his downward spiral since he signed as a free agent, and Freddy Sanchez has no power and seems to be able to only hit fastballs. However, Posey was brought up and hit almost immediately, Aubrey Huff found he liked the NL much better than the AL and refound his power stroke, Pat Burrell suddenly remembered how to hit again and Andres Torres’ bat control and power helped the Giants hit 39 more home runs in 2010 than they did in 2009.
Both teams have solid starting pitching. The Braves won’t be able to pitch team ace Tim Hudson until game three (as they needed him to get them INTO the playoffs) but Derek Lowe has been spectacular in September and Tommy Hanson has improved his control enough this year to be a solid top of the rotation guy, even if baserunners are able to steal at will off of him. The Giants had a scare from ace Tim Lincecum who struggled early in the season and then had a horrific August (0-5 with a 7.82 ERA, with NL hitter getting a .415 batting average off him) but he recovered to have a strong Sept (5-1 with a 1.94 ERA and a .242 average against) . Matt Cain has #1 stuff as well and youngster Jonathan Sanchez is solid. Both closers have put in good years, with Brian Wilson leading the NL in saves and Billy Wagner returning to an overall strong season despite some mid-season struggles.
Like the Rangers and Rays in the ALDS, these two teams are very evenly matched. Unlike those two teams they have the same weaknesses and strengths so it will be interesting to see how they counter each other. The Braves biggest concern is their offense and unless McCann and Heyward are lights out they will seriously striuggle to put runs across the plate. They need Omar Infante, Matt Diaz and/or Lee to step up. The one-two punch from Lincecum and Cain is almost as good as the one-two punch of the two Roys over in Philly. That and a stronger offense in the end will really be the difference here.
KEY PLAYERS: TIM LINCECUM, JONATHAN SANCHEZ, DERRICK LEE, OMAR INFANTE
WINNER: GIANTS IN FIVE

NLDS: CINCINNATI REDS VS. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
At first glance this seems to be the most lopsided of the four Division Series. The Phillies recovered from injuries to Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard to have a great second half and finish with the best record in the MLB. They have been to the World Series twice in the last two years (winning it once) and added an ace (Roy Oswalt) when they already had one (Roy Halladay).
However, while the odds are certainly in the Phillies favor, the Reds are no pushovers.
The Reds have a formidable rotation themselves. Edinson Volquez has electric stuff, had a great September (a 1.95 ERA) and is very rough on lefthanded hitters like the Phillies Utley and Howard. Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto both had solid seasons. The Phillies, however, have three guys who are just pitching lights out right now. The two Roys and #3 Cole Hamels were a combined 13-1 in the last month of the season. The Phillies don’t have a #4 they can rely on, but in a short series they don’t need one. Their 1-2-3 punch is the best in all of MLB and should throw a serious scare into any opponent.
Both teams can certainly hit. The Reds are led by likely NL MVP Joey Votto who not only tore up the NL, but also was murder on the Phillies this season going 11-for-28 with three home runs and six RBIs in seven games. Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce round out an offense that lead the NL in runs this season so while the Phils may look to pitch around Votto they don’t exactly have a creampuff lineup behind him. The Phillies had an off season from Utley and Jimmy Rollins’ health is in doubt which is a factor for a team that boasts an almost AL worthy lineup, but they have enough weapons to have a possible different hitting hero each night.
While neither team’s bullpen is lights out, the Reds closer is a major weakness. Philly closer Brad Lidge seems to have found his way again and looked much stronger in the second half than he looked earlier or all of last year. Francisco Cordero blew eight saves and had an ERA bordering 4.00 for a chunk of the season. The Reds’ not-so- secret weapon in Aroldis Chapman, who hit as high as 105 MPH on radar guns might be just what the Reds need if Cordero falters, which I think he will.
The Reds can hold their own, and are a strong team and would likely have been a favorite against the other two NL playoff teams, but the Phillies 1-2-3 rotation punch and their offense and playoff experiance will be too much to overcome.
KEY PLAYERS: EDINSON VOLQUEZ, FRANCISCO CORDARO, JIMMY ROLLINS, BRAD LIDGE
WINNER: PHILLIES IN FOUR

Time to Drop Your Socks and Grab Your… Bats

Ok, the horrible 2-9 road trip is over. The trip where the Mets showed an insane inability to score runs is done.

The question is… are the Mets done as well?

Well here is where we’ll find out. The next three weeks will basically give us a fairly well indication of what to expect with this team for the rest of the season.

They will wrap up a three game set with St. Louis and look to avenge a pathetic sweep by the Arizona Diamondbacks this upcoming weekend. Then it’s gut check time. Six in a row on the road with the Braves and Phillies where the Mets can either pick up some needed ground or basically allow themselves to be pushed back out of reach of the NL East (and maybe even the Wildcard) contention.

After that it’s a three game set against the Rockies and then three games at home against the Phils.

After that the schedule gets much easier with ten out of the next thirteen against the Astros and Pirates… who are just about the two worst teams in the NL. By then, however, it may be too late.

While this six game series at home is quite important (anything less than a 4-2 homestand is going to be seen as a disaster) it’s those six games on the road in atlanta and Philadelphia that are going to loom large in everyone’s eyes.

A 3-3 trip will be considered a success. A 2-4 trip is what is going to be expected by the media and the fans. a 1-5 or 0-6 trip will likely kill this teams’ chances of playing meaningful games in September.

The question comes down to… can this team hit? The Pitching is NOT the question right now. R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana and Jon Neise all pitched great on the road trip. Mike Pelfrey’s last start was very good as well. The starting pitching hasn’t been an issue in this losing streak. It’s been the hitting. The Mets were shut out five times in a thirteen game span, scored only one run in another two games and two runs in another two games during that span. That means they scored two runs or less in nine out of thirteen games. That’s not a power outage… that’s a blackout of near fatal extremes.

Last night’s explosion against one of the best pitchers in the Majors was a nice sight, but what use is an 8-2 win last night if they lose 2-1 tonight? This team needs to stop swinging at everything and have a smart approach to the plate. More than anything else, Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay need to start living up to their contracts and superstar expectations.

It’s now or never. If they go 10 – 3 in the thirteen games they have in August against the Astros, Pirates and Marlins it won’t mean much if they go 4 – 8 against the Braves, Phillies and Rockies at the beginning of the month. It’s time to stand up and be counted gentlemen.