Well, That was Easy

Sometimes things just never change.

So the New York Yankees swept the Minnesota Twins in the first step towards a possible repeat as World Series Champs, and is anyone REALLY that suprised?

The only game the Twins really had a shot in winning was the first game, where C.C. Sabathia was not very effective and the Twins had held a 3-0 lead until the Yankee bats woke up and stormed forward with four runs in the 6th. Games two and three had fairly little drama, and once again the team that could, just didn’t.

Next up is either the Rangers or the Rays. Tampa Bay looked fairly listless and overmatched in the first two games of the series, but has looked like the team everyone expected in games three and four. Now game five will reveal foe the Yanks who they are facing, but whomever team it is, the Yanks will certainly have an advantage since team aces Cliff Lee and David Price will face off in a “win or die” elmination game, thus leaving another pitcher to face off against Sabathia in Game One of the American League Championship Series.

That also means that odds are you’d see Sabathia in games 1, 4 and 7 but the Rangers or Rays would only have a chance to use their best pitchers twice.

Of course, there is always the chance the situation could wind up helping those teams if one of the two aces got to face off with regular rest against a twice short rested and perhaps overused Sabathia in a deciding game seven.

In any case, what seemed to be a bit of a climb for the Bronx Bombers seems a little bit easier this morning. That is not to say the ALCS will be a cake-walk no matter which team they face, but a well rested rotation can do nothing but benefit the Yanks.

As for the Twins, it’s time to go home again and wonder just why in the Baseball God’s Name does every playoff series vs. New York end the same. For a team that looked so strong going into the playoffs, the Twins looked fairly overmatched, being outscored 17-7 in the three games. The offense struggled mightly and the absence of their all-star/MVP first baseman (Justin Morneau) was glaring. In the end, the terrible play of the last three weeks of the season didn;t seem to affect the Yanks at all, and the road to another Championship became a little less cluttered.

Playoff Predictions: The ALDS

Well, the 2010 MLB regular season is over. It was a wild year where a number of teams in playoff positions at the halfway point of the season (the Red Sox, Padres, Mets, Tigers) fell out of contention and failed to make the playoffs. Where a team blew a sizeable lead in their division and then in the wild card, only to resecure the wild card on the last day of the season (the Braves). Where two teams regarded as the two best teams in the AL seemed to not want to win their division (The Yankees with an 8-12 record in the last three weeks and Rays with a 10-11 record in those same 3 weeks) and a team that was in third place at the halfway point of the season (The Phillies) and suffered injuries to three of its biggest players at points during the season (Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard) finished with the best record in baseball.

So despite the fact we were VERY close to having a three way tie that would have resulted in a double-playoff elimination set of games (Giants vs. Padres for the NL West crown on Monday, with the loser playing the Braves for the NL Wild Card on tuesday) the team and matchups are set. Let’s take a look at the first round of each playoff series and I’ll give you my thoughts on each. We’ll start with the American League and do the National League tomorrow.

ALDS: TEXAS RANGERS vs. TAMPA BAY RAYS
This is most likely going to be the best of the first round matchups. You have two powerful teams here that actually have different strengths to a point. The Rays have excellent pitching and defense, yet struggle to hit the ball. The Rangers have a killer ace in Cliff Lee but the drop off from there is kind of significant but they score runs by the busload. This is going to be a heck of a series. The Rays finished towards the bottom of the AL in batting average, yet finished third overall in runs scored in the Majors. This is basically attributed to their ability to get on base via the walk (1st in the AL) and then steal bases once they are on (again, 1st in the AL). This, plus their strong showing against left handed pitchers (they were 3-0 against Cliff Lee this season) gives them an advantage, if a slight one. Evan Longoria is really the most dangerous bat in the Rays’ lineup but there isn’t a lot of power other than him and 1st baseman Carlos Pena, who is almost as likely to strike out as he is to hit one out. The Rays will need someone else to step up and swing a hot bat. The Rangers have a lot of power, from likely AL MVP Josh Hamilton (recently back from broken ribs which may play a factor here), Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler. While Vald Guerrero’s resurgence has suffered in the last six weeks of the season, he’s still a bat to reckon with.
With David Price and Lee, both teams have a Cy Young caliber starter but the Rays starters are more solid overall. The Rangers will rely on C.J. Wilson to continue a promising year, but overall the Texas starters have some issues.
Both teams have excellent bullpens. The Rays have a near devistating one-two punch in Rafael Soriano and Joaquin Benoit as their closer and set up man. The two have been near unbeatable and have been complimented by solid work from Grant Balfour and Randy Choate, but the Rangers’ bullpen won a whopping 32 games (best in the AL). Neftali Feliz has had an amazing rookie season and could very well be the 2010 Rookie of the Year. Darren O’Day and Darren Oliver have had incredible seasons.
This is likely to be an epic series and it’s doubtful either team will come out and dominate the other. Either one of these teams could find themselves in the World Series. The winner of this one will be the team that keeps its mistakes to a minimum. Out of all the first rounds series, this is the hardest to pick.
KEY PLAYERS: C.J. WILSON, VLAD GUERRERO, JAMES SHIELDS, B.J. UPTON
WINNER: RAYS IN FIVE

ALDS: NEW YORK YANKEES vs. MINNESOTA TWINS
Well this looks familar doesn’t it? Another first round matchup and another where the Twins will not have their slugging firstbaseman in Justin Morneau. They don’t have a prayer, do they?
Well, let’s not be that fast. The Twins are a stronger team this year than last year. Francisco Liriano was one of the best pitchers in the AL this year, Jim Thome found the fountian of youth and murdered the ball this season over the second half and Joe Mauer is still one of the best hitters on the planet. Does that mean they have a chance against the mighty Yankees? Well, seeing on how the Yankees have some serious questions themselves, there is a chance here, even if it’s not a huge one.
The Yankees had a rough finish to the year, losing 18 of their last 26 games. Andy Pettite looked very shakey in his last few starts and AJ Burnett pretty much pitched his way out of a start in the first round (and maybe the 2nd round as well). The health of Mark Teixeria is still in doubt and Derek Jeter has certainly taken a decent sized step backwards in production this year. The bullpen is still in unrest, despite Kerry Wood becoming a very viable 8th inning guy.
Despite all of this, it’s pretty hard to pick against the Bombers. They finished first in the AL in runs scored and still have a lineup to be wary of. Despite some struggles in the last month of the season, Mariano Rivera is still near impossible to defeat. C. C. Sabathia has proved he can pitch with the best of them on short rest and the Yanks will go with a three-man rotation for this first round series.
For the Yanks, the starting pitching is likely the biggest thing that could unhinge them, but in the end, missing Morneau and having a closer with no playoff experiance (Matt Capps) will hurt.
KEY PLAYERS: CARL PAVANO, MATT CAPS, ANDY PETTITE, PHIL HUGHES
WINNER: YANKEES IN FOUR

Down to the Wire for Yankees/Rays

So the big four game series between the two AL East powerhouses turned into a wash as the split the series right down the middle and gave everyone absolutely no idea which team really is in the better position.

Unless someone totally collapses, both the Yankees and the Rays are making the playoffs… that much is fairly certain. Of course the question is at this point, which team would you rather face in the first round? The Twins, who have quietly surmassed the best record in the American League from August 1st on (and without their slugging 1st baseman Juston Mourneu) or the slugging Rangers (who will throw the nasty duo of Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson in a short 5 game series)? Of course, the winner of the AL East will have home field advantage for at least the first round, while the wild card winner will not have any and that fact alone maybe play a part in where you might want to see a team finish.

In any case, the Yankees looked really good in the first two games of this series… and then the Rays looked really good in the 2nd two games. Neither got an advantage over the other and neither really looked like they were about to burst ahead.

The Rays have the advantage now for two reasons:
1 – The two teams are tied in the loss column. Having the extra game in hand gives the Rays an advantage because the won the season series.
2 – The Yankees have nine games left. Six games against Boston (3 in NY this week and 3 in Boston to end the season) and three games against Toronto. The Rays have ten games left. Six at home against Seattle and Baltimore and four on the road in Kansas City. You KNOW that Boston will be looking to mess up the Yankees as much as possible and as much improved the Orioles are with Buck Showalter at the helm, the Mariners and Royals aren’t likely to put up much of a fight against Tampa Bay.

That doesn’t the Rays are a shoo-in to win the Division, but it does look good for them.

Likely, the Yankees will start to rest players (Mark Teixeria is hurting big time and needs some down time) and set up the rotation for the first round, so likely, those last four or five games will see a lot of youngsters and bench players getting time.

Should Yanks be Concerned about Late Season Stumbles?

The 2010 season has seen a number of ups and downs (much more ups than downs) for the Yankees, but coming into this four game series with the Tampa Bay Rays (which will likely determine who wins the AL East unless it’s an even 2-2 split) the Yanks have stumbled a bit. Before winning 2 of 3 from Baltimore the Yankees had hit a rough patch going 4-9 in their previous 13 games against teams like the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers and Rays. Add to this the obvious struggles of Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeria (due to injury), Nick Swisher, Lance Berkman and Javy Vasquez and the curiously unknown incident that left A.J. Burnett with a black eye and bruised cheek (maybe he ran into K-Rod and was mistaken for his Father-In-Law?) and there should be cause for some concern.

The Yanks righted things to a point with a winning series in Baltimore this past weekend and winning the first game of the 4-game series with the Rays (extending their lead in the AL East to 1.5 games) but overall, between health (Teixeria’s thumb and toe, Posada’s head, Swisher’s knee, Gardner’s wrist, Pettitte’s groin) and some slumps, the Yankees have to be a little worried headed into the last stretch before the playoffs.

To hear them talk, they are not. Brian Cashman is “not concerned at all” and Jeter said “we are right where we want to be, controlling our own destiny”. I wouldn;t expect anything but these sort of comments from this team, but I do think there is something to the fact that this is not a good time to suddenly hit the skids. You want to go into the playoffs on at least a fairly smooth run. Cashman has said that the Yankees focus is much more on winning a World Series than on winning their Division and I have to agree to a point that it would make more sense in the last week of the season if the division is still in doubt it would be better to set up for the playoffs more than worry about finishing in first, but do not discount the Yankees advantage at home, something they would basically not have at all if they won the Wildcard instead of the AL East.

It also seems that A.J. Burnett is going to have a spot in the rotation in the playoffs no matter what, according to Cashman. This makes sense, seeing as the alternate would be rookie Ivan Nova or the banished to the bullpen Vasquez. It seems that manager Joe Girardi is wary of Burnett, but there really isn’t too much of a choice.

The Yankees have had late season slumps before and flipped the switch once the playoffs started (at the horrible finish in 2000 for a perfect example) but this is a weird team. They really should be considered the overall favorites as the team is strong and sound, but there is that nagging little voice that seems to worry just enough about things to keep the expections from being a slam dunk.

It’s hard for me to say the Yanks are in trouble. They still have an excellent record and they still feel like that team that will always find a way to win in the end. However, the Twins have the best record in baseball since the beginning of August (without their MVP 1st baseman), The Rangers have a big time offense and a Cy Young caliber ace and the Rays pitch and catch the ball a little better than the Yanks do (although they do not hit and score as well). The Phillies, with two legit #1 aces in ‘The Roys” (Halladay and Oswalt) and a solid #2 in Cole Hamels are a team to watch out for and are streaking at the right moment and the Braves pitch just about as well as anyone. This isn’t going to be a cake walk by any stretch.