Phricking Phillies

Ok, so I've pretty much kept away from the whole Cliff Lee stuff, since there is nothing I'm going to say that wasn;t said in the first hour or so after the announcement.

It certainly was the worst place he could have gone. If he had gone to the Braves it would have been just about as bad I suppose, but basically anywhere else would have been preferred.

Ok, lets get this out of the way... I cannot IMAGINE the Philies (barring major injury to one or more of their now seemingly insurmountable starting rotation) do not win the NL East. They are basically as assured of a playoff spot as one can be assured of one.

Does it mean they will win the whole shebang? I would say the odds favor them but nothing is a sure thing.

As a Mets fan, it does suck. It's just another thing the inane Philadelphia fans get to crow about... and oh GOD do they crow.

I REALLY have to say that the majority of Philadelphia fans (baseball, football and hockey at least) come across as very crass and arrogant and plain... well... mean spirited. It makes this sort of thing even harder to take.

The Phillies ARE an older team though, and I have the feeling that the "win now" mentality will hurt them in the long run. However, that long run will not be 2011 or 2012.

So for the next two years (at least) we have the spectre over our heads. I will say though, 2014 and beyond may be quite rough on that team, but for now... they shouldn't care. They have (once again) made a move that made their team better and if nothing else you have to respect that.

Just remember, this doesn't keep the Mets from being able to compete though. I expect this organization to rise from the ashes here. I expect them to be competitive in 2011 (I see no reason this team cannot win 85 games and at least be in it in September even if I don't expect a playoff spot) and I expect them to make some serious moves and make the team better for 2012 and be ready to go into battle with the playoffs a possibility.

Having said that though?

Oh GOD I HATE THE PHILLIES.

Say what you want about how good they are (or expect to be) but this team is full of arrogant jerks. If nothing else the Mets had better be ready to stand up to these idiots and give as good as they get.

Enough Already

Just what the heck is wrong with New York baseball fans?

I'm sitting here listening about how terrible the 2011 season is going to be for the Yankees if they don't get Cliff Lee because of how improved the Red Sox are and I have to wonder... with the possible exception of Andy Pettite, isn't this the same team that the Yankee fans expected to storm through the AL into the World Series before a hot Texas team cooled those plans?

I mean, let's see... They have a $25 Million dollar 1st baseman who is pretty much considered a top 5 first baseman (both in hitting and fielding). You have an MVP candidate at 2nd base who took a fairly strong career and made it even beter with a monster season. You have a guy playing shortstop that, despite his age, is still one of the smartest guys on the field and is more likely to raise his game back up then allow it to stay to the depths it was stuck in during the 2010 season. You have a $30 million 3rd baseman who really is likely to give you a 30 homerun, 110 RBI season and that's considered a DROP in production. You have an ace starting pitcher who has been a mixture of solid and dominating in the two years he's been here. You have a young, talented and soild #2 pitcher who will likely improve upon his impressive 2010. You have an, admittedly old, closer who defies all logic and shuts down other team's bats 99.9% of the time. I haven't even started on your very talented, if slightly uneven, outfield who's regular season stats have been pretty damn good.

In other words, why do the Yankees have to worry so much for? I'm not saying they are a lock to make the playoffs in 2011, but the team, just as presently constituted is as strong as most of the league and you know... you just KNOW they will find a way to add a pitcher. I think Pettite will be back and I could see the Yanks winding up with someone like Matt Garza, James Shields or a Wandy Rodriguez.

My gut is that Lee will remain in Texas. I think he's just trying to use the Yankees to get as much as he can there. In fact, I'll go as far as to say I don't think he ever wanted to go to New York. That doesn't matter though. The Yankees are a solid team who, frankly, still have a leg up on most of the AL. A.J. Burnett is not as bad as Yankee fans seem to think he is, and can easily be a #4 guy and contibutor. The offense is more than fine as long as Swisher continues to perform as he has (and there is no reason to think he won't) and A-Rod, Cano and Teixeria do what is expected of them (and there is not reason to think they won't).

As for the Mets... I'm SO SICK of the whining going on here. Everyone... and I mean EVERYONE wanted Omar and Jerry gone. Well they ARE gone and so is the way they did things. The new mangement group is looking to steamline the entire organization and with the lack of real talent on the free agent market this year, I'm GLAD to see them playing it smart and not grabbing someone for the sake of making a splash.

This organization needed a change and we're getting it. As fans, we have to be patient and let this season play out to get some money off the books and be able to make some moves to contruct this team with some real solid pitching and a view for longer term success as well as short term.

Listen. I know I'm in the minority, but I expect the Mets to be competitive next season. Yes, the loss of Johan Santana until June will hurt, but I have faith in the tandum of Pelfrey, Dickey and Neise to be decent. I'm also looking at an offesne that will have a full season of Carlos Beltran in a contract year, a bounce back season from Jason Bay (who I expect to come back to his normal numbers in a big way) and the solid performances of David Wright, Jose Reyes (also in a contract year), Ike Davis and Angel Pagan. If they can keep themselves at .500 until Santana comes back I can see this team being in the wild card mix. Do I thnk they could win the division? No, not at all unless one of the Roys misses a chunk of the season for the Phillies, but to automatically think the Mets are a 4th or 5th place team is ridiculous.

I expect the Mets to sign someone like Brandon Webb or Chris Young to an incentive laden contract and who knows... maybe they'll catch lightning in a bottle. The thing is, look at the big picture here folks. The Mets STILL will be in the top 5 or 6 in payroll in 2011 and odds are will spend a little more for the 2012 season. This is NOT going to be the Oakland A's East. The Mets aren't going to be a Moneyball team. Just shut up and let the new front office crew have some time to reshape this franchise like we've all been begging for the last three years.

Please. Enough.

Giant Surprise

If nothing else can be said about the 2010 MLB Playoffs, I think the word "unpredictable" is the best description.

After the way the Texas Rangers cut through the New York Yankees in the ALDS, I honestly thought there was little chance the San Francisco Giants had in the World Series. Even with a fairly solid dismatling of the reigning NL Champion Phillies, I just didn't see the Giants doing much. I picked the Rangers in five games and kin of thought I was being generous to SF.

Boy was I wrong.

The Rangers just never seemed to get itself going. The Giants pitching was beyond incredible and shut the Rangers down like they were a minor league team facing a big league club. On the other side, the Giants bats hit way beyond anything you could have expected. Even Cliff Lee looked human facing them. They took advantage of every oppertunity and just flat out outplayed the Rangers.

Just goes to show you that it's impossible to predict these things. Congrats to the 2010 World Champion SF Giants.

Playoff Predictions: ALCS

Well, I was close.

So I got three out of four right with my first round predictions, and the one that I got wrong was the series I said would go five games and either team really could come out and find itself in the World Series (the Rangers/Rays series) so I feel pretty good about my selections.

It doesn’t get any easier in the American League though, because the two teams left standing (New York Yankees and Texas Rangers) both make a compelling arguement for why they should be considered the favorite.

So let’s take a look at some interesting bits that could be considered a reason to give either team an edge.

THE YANKEES
1. C. C. Sabathia: He looked shakey in Game 1 of the ALDS, but you know he’s more than trustworthy on the big stage. Able to go on short rest and pitch well. A true Ace.

2. Mariano Rivera: No matter what his age of his recent struggles at the end of the year, he is shutdown city in the playoffs as usual. Can get you a four or five out save in a close game and be trusted to still dominate. Unflappable. Turns games shorter… if you’re going to get to the Yanks bullpen do it before he comes in.

3. Experiance: Most of the roster has playoff and World Series experiance. They’ve done it before and know what to expect.

4. The Offense: If Derek Jeter really ready to be able to pull the ball with power (something he hasn’t done pretty much all year) then the lineup is hard to beat. Robinson Cano continues to hit like he has for most of the season and Jorge Posada usually finds a way to hit in the postseason. With Mark Teixeria more recovered from his ailments and Curtis Granderson suddenly swinging a hot bat the potential to score a ton of runs is there.

5. The Rangers Rotation matchups to start the series: Since Cliff Lee had to pitch last night’s Game 5, he won’t be available until Game 3. With C.J. Wilson starting Game 1 of the ALCS against Sabathia, if the Yanks can jump to a quick 2-0 series lead, Lee’s presence can be neutralized. That is not to say the Ranger starters aren’t good (they are), but having Sabathia, a true ace, against anyone but Cliff Lee give the Yanks a nice advantage.

THE RANGERS
1. Cliff Lee: Seemingly unbeatable. Lee was lights out against the Yanks this year (and in last year’s World Series) and he’s been amazing in the playoffs. If the Yanks split in Texas, they are looking at Lee in Game 3. Lose that and suddenly you are looking at a 2-1 Series Yankee deficit against Lee in Game 3 and an unreliable A.J. Burnett as your Game 4 starter. Not something most Yankee fans want to see.

2. The Offense: Talk about being dialed in. The Rangers have two players with 3 Home Runs in the post season already (Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz) and the whole lineup just flat out hit in the first round (except, surprisingly, expected AL MVP Josh Hamilton) . There is a lot of power and some speed in this lineup and they hit big time in Arlington, where the Rangers have the home field advantage. They are aggressive at the plate and on the basepaths and are a lot like the upstart Angels of 2002, but actually have more superstar power.

3. The Starting Pitching: The Rangers’ pitching is not just Cliff Lee. C. J. Wilson is a solid #2 and is actually quite under-rated. The Rangers went 24-9 games he started, which is the second-best winning percentage by any team for any pitcher in baseball this year. Colby Lewis is a serviceable starter who has an average fastball but pounds the strike zone with it. Hitters do not pick up his slider well at all. The Yankees know how good Wilson is and even Tommy Hunter will likely more than hold his own against Burnett in Game 4.

4. The September 10-12 Series Sweep: Don’t discount the importance of that three game series in which the Rangers found every way to beat the Yanks. The Twins haven’t been able to beat the Yankees in the regular season or the postseason, and that had to have played its part in their minds. The Rangers, on the other hand, walked away from this season with the sense they can beat the Bombers. Two come from behind wins (beating Mariano Rivera in one of them) and a convincing gem of a game from Lee gives the Rangers faith they CAN win, and faith is important to a franchise who finally won their first ever playoff series just this week.

Overall this should be a heck of a series in the way that the Rangers/Rays series turned out to be. Both teams have a number of reasons why they could win and neither team should be considered a clear favorite. What it comes down to is this: much like the 1986 Mets, who desperately wanted to avoid facing off against Mike Scott in a Game Seven of the NLCS, the Yankees want to avoid facing Lee in the same scenario. Most teams who start out a series without home field advantage look to split the first two games to get themselves the homefield advantage. The Yankees are hoping to actually win BOTH of the first two games in Texas. Why? Because you have the spectre of Cliff Lee looming in Game 3. While it’s no lock that the Rangers would win that game just because Lee is starting, the odds favor it. If the Yankees split the first two games and face Lee in Game 3, they could find themselves in a 2-1 hole with A.J. Burnett as their Game 4 starter which could be a disaster. Yes, they could send C.C. Sabathia (and what the heck is it with all the intitials in this series? C.C., A.J., C.J. … jeez!) on three days rest into Game 4, but then you would have to pitch Burnett in Game 5 or you’d be sending Phil Hughes into it with only three days rest. You do not want that. Any way you look at it, odds are Burnett is starting a game in this series. That doesn’t make anyone feel good, although there is no lock that Burnett would pitch badly. You just don’t know what you will get. The Yankees have Phil Hughes going in Game 2 and Andy Pettitte going in Game 3 and a potential Game 7 against Lee. That is smart. Pettitte will not be daunted by that pressure.

To me, the Yankees need to win this in six or less games, because if it goes to a Game 7 with Lee on the mound in Texas… well, let’s just say the Yankees will NOT have the advantage. If they can win the first two games of the Series, I think the Yanks can win fairly handily. If not, this is going to be a hell of a fight for them.

KEY PLAYERS: YANKEES

For the Yanks, three really stand out.
Phil Hughes: who struggled in the 2nd half after a fantastic first half, but looked excellent in his Game 3 start in the ALDS. Hughes will be expected to either help even the series if the Rangers find a way to beat or outlast Sabathia in Game 1, or help give the Yanks a 2-0 advantage going into a Game 3 against Lee. His performance could be huge.

Andy Pettitte: The crafty veteran really is the best one you can pick to face off against Lee in Game 3 (and perhaps Game 7) if it can’t be Sabathia. He’s unflappable, cool and calm in the face of pressure. He’s got more postseason wins than anyone. He looked very good in Game 2 of the ALDS, but there are still some questions about his health. It’ll be up to him to shoulder a heavy load if the Yanks are down going into Game 3 or if there is a Game 7. If he’s on, he’s the one *I* would want in that position.

Boone Logan: You know who might have been the REAL 2009 World Series MVP? It could have actually been Damaso Marte. Ok, that’s an exaggeration… but Marte was key in the postseason last year including retiring twelve in a row at one point after a little bit of a shakey start to the postseason. The Phillies two biggest bats are both lefties (Chase Utley and Ryan Howard) and neither one could touch Marte. What does that have to do with Logan? One name: Josh Hamilton. Imagine this: 1 run lead for Yanks. Bottom of the 7th inning. Two on, two out and Josh Hamilton at the plate. Who is pitching there? Joba Chamberlain? Kerry Wood? No. It’s going to be Logan, every single time. Joe Giradi will play the matchups and he should. Logan could wind up being the difference makers when it comes to neutralizing Hamilton’s incredible bat. Hamilton is 0-3 with one strike out lifetime against Logan, who was murder on lefties this year. He’s a specialist and can’t be counted on for a full inning for the most part, but his contribution could be huge.

KEY PLAYERS: RANGERS

For the Rangers, it’s quite simple:
C.J. Wilson: Lefties hit only .141 aginst him this year, something that could play a huge part with Cano, Granderson and Brett Gardner. The Yankees overall seem to struggle at times with lefthanded pitching. Wilson cannot be expected to outpitch Sabathia, but he can keep the game close and leave his team within striking distance. The Rangers pitching needs other starters to step it up besides Lee, and Wilson is one that can and should that.

Jorge Cantu: The Rangers, like the Yankees, have a strong offense. What they don’t have though, is a solid 1st baseman. Cantu has power but little else. He’s shown flashes of excellent bat control but often falls back into his normal free-swinging self. You expect big offense out of Hamilton, Kinsler, Cruz and Young (and Molinia to a lesser extent) and excellent table setting from Elvis Andus… but a hot bat in Cantu’s hands would make this team very difficult, if not impossible to shut down.

Neftali Feliz: The hotshot rookie closer had a fantastic season but was a little shakey in the ALDS against the Rays. He’s got the stuff but can he handle the pressure? Could he close out a one run lead in the ninth inning of a game in Yankee Stadium facing A-Rod, Teixeria and Cano? The Yankees know that if they go into the 9th with a lead, there is pretty much a 99.5% chance of a win. The Rangers have to wonder. Feliz needs to be a rock. There aren’t many things more demoralizing then eight great innings from a starting pitcher and then a loss when your closer gives it away in the 9th. Feliz’s performance in close games will go a long way to determining how far the Rangers go.

PREDICTION: Yankees in six, however… if it goes to a seventh game, all bets are off and I give the Rangers the nod.

You Have to Admire Phillies, Yankees

When the Philadelphia Phillies traded Cliff Lee in this offseason, I thought the team was crazy. They had a chance to have a killer 1-2 punch of Roy Halladay and Lee with a solid Cole Hamels (a legit #2 pitcher) as their #3. Facing those three in a playoff series would be a seemingly insurmountable feat… especially when you factor in the Phils strong line-up with Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jason Werth anchoring an American League like offense.

The Phils were worried about their farm system though and traded Lee to restock it somewhat after making a serious dent in it to acquire Halladay (and Lee himself the year before). It was a big mistake.

Well, the Phillies realized that mistake when they struggled to win any games this year not started by Halladay or Hamels. With a number of injuries to their position players and a team that had gone to the World Series in each of the last two years I don’t think anyone would have blamed the Phillies if they stood pat and let the season played out and perhaps prepared for the 2011 season. Stuck in third place for most of the season, it didn’t look like the playoffs were very likely anyway.

So what do they do? They fight like hell to get Roy Oswalt, who, while not as much of a no-doubt pitcher as Cliff Lee is, still is a major upgrade to anything they had and creates a very strong 1-2-3 top of the rotation with Halladay and Hamels. The trade looks likely, just awaiting the approve of Oswalt himself, but even if it doesn’t happen, it’s still a sign the Phillies will do as much as they can to build a winner.

A few weeks ago, the Yankees were on the edge of acquiring Lee from the Mariners and in fact seemed to have a deal in place that the Mariners backed down from in ordere to get what they felt was a better offer from the Texas Rangers. When that fell through, they tried to get Dan Haren from the Arizona Diamondbacks. That also didn’t come to pass.

The Yankees though, unlike the Phillies, have the best record in baseball and already have a quite formidable starting rotation of C.C. Sabathia, Andy Pettitte (who is on the DL right now, granted), Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez. Even with Pettitte on the DL, the team is winning and winning effortlessly. Their line-up is stacked, yet their are runors they have been looking to improve it by looking at Adam Dunn or Jose Batista.

Some people were angry when the Yankees tried to get Lee. They were a powerhouse team already… wasn’t enough, enough?

Not to the Yankees… and seemingly the Phillies. You see, both teams have been making the right moves the last few years… they are top teams who never seem to be satisfied and strive to make themselves better.

For the Yankees, this is status quo. They’ve always looked to field a team of all-stars to the point that it’s really not major news when they win… it’s actually bigger news when they DON’T. You expect the Yankees to win because they put the best talent on the field. They give their fans expectations that no only sports franchise can match. That is beyond admirable. A team that puts winning on such a pedistal that they want to give themselves the biggest advantage the rules will allow… no matter how lopsided it may seem is one to praise and emulate, not bash.

The Yankees do what EVERY team should strive to do. Field the best possible team and never be satisfied… but always look to improve. THAT is how a winning organization builds Dynasties.

The Phillies don’t have the same winning tradition that the Yankees do. In fact they were the first ever continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in all of sports to lose 10,000 games. However, they were a team energized by an unexpected playoff run in 2007 when the Mets let a 7 game lead in the NL East to get away and the Phillies have strived to improve themselves ever since. They also were an organization that was smart enough to admit its own mistakes and weaknesses after the horrible decision to trade away Lee and have been trying everything to correct that mistake. Most organizations aren’t smart enough to do that.

For all of the people screaming about how unfair the Yankees “rich get richer” ways are… you need to realize that they are only doing what they SHOULD be doing. Other teams could do the same thing. The Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Orioles and Cubs all have major markets and the money to make simular moves, but except for the Red Sox and occasionally the Braves and Cards, most of them don’t on a regular basis. The Phillies seem to have entered that realm where they do what they have to do each year to make themselves better and put themselves in a great postion to just win.

That is what this should all be about people… these teams should be looking to do whatever they can to WIN. I don’t want to hear about money… any team should know… if you WIN, then the team will make money. You’ll sell out games because fans ALWAYS flock to a winner. Those sellouts will make a lot of money also on food, parking and merchandise. The more you win, the longer the fans will throw money at the teams to come to games.

I look at a franchise like the Mets… who HAVE spent money… they HAVE been willing to make moves… only the moves haven’t always been the right ones, and the last two years the team has NOT made a move that could push them over the top. Acquiring Roy Oswalt or Cliff Lee would have been a MAJOR boost for the Mets. This is a team that has given it’s fans two major collapses and a 92 loss season in the last three years. This year is quickly slipping away. The Mets need to make up its mind where they are going as a franchise because at this rate, it’s looking like a team not willing to do what it takes to step it up with the Yankees and Phillies, two teams its going to always have to square off against… and that’s just wrong. The Mets ownership and management need to take a long look at itself and make some serious decisions.

UPDATE: According to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com, Roy Oswalt plans to OK the deal that will send him to the Phillies. The Astros will receive J.A. Happ and two prospects in return. In addition Stark says, “The Astros will pay $11 million of the approximately $23 million Oswalt has guaranteed through 2011.” In other words, the Phillies are a much stronger team now people. I think the Mets are likely going to need to shift their thinking and look towards 2011 and how to improve the team to step it up and compete with solid looking Brave and Phillie teams.

Yankees on Verge of Winning The World Series in July

Despite the amazing disapointment of New York basketball fans last night when LeBron James chose to head to Miami and join the Heat, a move came closer to happening about the same time that would pretty much send a ripple of glee through a large amount of New York baseball fans.

There are indications that the Yankees have stepped up their efforts to acquire LHP Cliff Lee from the Mariners in exchange for catching prospect Jesus Montero and at least two other prospects (possibly including 2nd baseman David Adams) and that the Mariners, who wanted to wait until after the All-Star break, suddenly want to move fast and were fairly close to making the deal.

This is a little bit of a surprise seeing that all we’ve heard is that it’ll take a few prospects and at least one major league ready player which seems to not be part of the discussed deal.

If the Yankees acquire Lee, it would give them a pitching rotation that pretty much eclipses anything any other team could dream of throwing. Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes and A.J Burnett/Javy Vazquez suddenly becomes a team that has a rotation no worse than a #3 starters. It has two legit #1 pitchers in Lee and Sabathia, three legit #2 pitchers in Pettitte, Burnett (if he is himself) and Hughes, and with his resurgance into solid play the last month, a solid #3 in Vazquez .

It also makes the Yankees look unbeatable.

Of course there are obvious signs that Vazquez will be traded if Lee comes on board… but the strong rumor is him going to the Phillies for OF Jason Werth.

In other words, the Yankees could be literally adding the two best players available on the trade market.

For Yankee fans, this is amazing news. For the rest of baseball it mostly becomes time to start looking towards 2011 and hope that the two players don’t resign with the Yankees in the offseason.

As a Mets fan, it’s quite hard to look at this objectively, but it would be a windfall for the Yankees, who never seem to let this sort of oppertunity pass them by. The move is smart and, barring unforseen issues such as injury, pretty much ensures a world series appearance (and likely victory). For them, it’s almost a no-brainer.

But is it good for baseball in itself? Of course you’ll have many people screaming about the rich getting richer… and the Yankees ARE the perfect picture of that for sure… but it’s hard to kill a team for doing what they SHOULD be doing… and that is putting the best team, on the field to win.

I cannot imagine a team overcoming a rotation like that. Lee and Sabathia ALONE would be daunting… but add in how fantastic Pettitte and Hughes have been this year and it’s just unreal.

So if this happens, congratulations to the Yankees for bowling over Major League baseball and grabbing for the trophy three months before any actual games are played for it.

But just wait till 2011.

Oh wait… that’s right… both Lee and Werth could sign with the Yanks then.

Um… just wait till 2015!!!!