Playoff Predictions: ALCS

Well, I was close.

So I got three out of four right with my first round predictions, and the one that I got wrong was the series I said would go five games and either team really could come out and find itself in the World Series (the Rangers/Rays series) so I feel pretty good about my selections.

It doesn’t get any easier in the American League though, because the two teams left standing (New York Yankees and Texas Rangers) both make a compelling arguement for why they should be considered the favorite.

So let’s take a look at some interesting bits that could be considered a reason to give either team an edge.

THE YANKEES
1. C. C. Sabathia: He looked shakey in Game 1 of the ALDS, but you know he’s more than trustworthy on the big stage. Able to go on short rest and pitch well. A true Ace.

2. Mariano Rivera: No matter what his age of his recent struggles at the end of the year, he is shutdown city in the playoffs as usual. Can get you a four or five out save in a close game and be trusted to still dominate. Unflappable. Turns games shorter… if you’re going to get to the Yanks bullpen do it before he comes in.

3. Experiance: Most of the roster has playoff and World Series experiance. They’ve done it before and know what to expect.

4. The Offense: If Derek Jeter really ready to be able to pull the ball with power (something he hasn’t done pretty much all year) then the lineup is hard to beat. Robinson Cano continues to hit like he has for most of the season and Jorge Posada usually finds a way to hit in the postseason. With Mark Teixeria more recovered from his ailments and Curtis Granderson suddenly swinging a hot bat the potential to score a ton of runs is there.

5. The Rangers Rotation matchups to start the series: Since Cliff Lee had to pitch last night’s Game 5, he won’t be available until Game 3. With C.J. Wilson starting Game 1 of the ALCS against Sabathia, if the Yanks can jump to a quick 2-0 series lead, Lee’s presence can be neutralized. That is not to say the Ranger starters aren’t good (they are), but having Sabathia, a true ace, against anyone but Cliff Lee give the Yanks a nice advantage.

THE RANGERS
1. Cliff Lee: Seemingly unbeatable. Lee was lights out against the Yanks this year (and in last year’s World Series) and he’s been amazing in the playoffs. If the Yanks split in Texas, they are looking at Lee in Game 3. Lose that and suddenly you are looking at a 2-1 Series Yankee deficit against Lee in Game 3 and an unreliable A.J. Burnett as your Game 4 starter. Not something most Yankee fans want to see.

2. The Offense: Talk about being dialed in. The Rangers have two players with 3 Home Runs in the post season already (Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz) and the whole lineup just flat out hit in the first round (except, surprisingly, expected AL MVP Josh Hamilton) . There is a lot of power and some speed in this lineup and they hit big time in Arlington, where the Rangers have the home field advantage. They are aggressive at the plate and on the basepaths and are a lot like the upstart Angels of 2002, but actually have more superstar power.

3. The Starting Pitching: The Rangers’ pitching is not just Cliff Lee. C. J. Wilson is a solid #2 and is actually quite under-rated. The Rangers went 24-9 games he started, which is the second-best winning percentage by any team for any pitcher in baseball this year. Colby Lewis is a serviceable starter who has an average fastball but pounds the strike zone with it. Hitters do not pick up his slider well at all. The Yankees know how good Wilson is and even Tommy Hunter will likely more than hold his own against Burnett in Game 4.

4. The September 10-12 Series Sweep: Don’t discount the importance of that three game series in which the Rangers found every way to beat the Yanks. The Twins haven’t been able to beat the Yankees in the regular season or the postseason, and that had to have played its part in their minds. The Rangers, on the other hand, walked away from this season with the sense they can beat the Bombers. Two come from behind wins (beating Mariano Rivera in one of them) and a convincing gem of a game from Lee gives the Rangers faith they CAN win, and faith is important to a franchise who finally won their first ever playoff series just this week.

Overall this should be a heck of a series in the way that the Rangers/Rays series turned out to be. Both teams have a number of reasons why they could win and neither team should be considered a clear favorite. What it comes down to is this: much like the 1986 Mets, who desperately wanted to avoid facing off against Mike Scott in a Game Seven of the NLCS, the Yankees want to avoid facing Lee in the same scenario. Most teams who start out a series without home field advantage look to split the first two games to get themselves the homefield advantage. The Yankees are hoping to actually win BOTH of the first two games in Texas. Why? Because you have the spectre of Cliff Lee looming in Game 3. While it’s no lock that the Rangers would win that game just because Lee is starting, the odds favor it. If the Yankees split the first two games and face Lee in Game 3, they could find themselves in a 2-1 hole with A.J. Burnett as their Game 4 starter which could be a disaster. Yes, they could send C.C. Sabathia (and what the heck is it with all the intitials in this series? C.C., A.J., C.J. … jeez!) on three days rest into Game 4, but then you would have to pitch Burnett in Game 5 or you’d be sending Phil Hughes into it with only three days rest. You do not want that. Any way you look at it, odds are Burnett is starting a game in this series. That doesn’t make anyone feel good, although there is no lock that Burnett would pitch badly. You just don’t know what you will get. The Yankees have Phil Hughes going in Game 2 and Andy Pettitte going in Game 3 and a potential Game 7 against Lee. That is smart. Pettitte will not be daunted by that pressure.

To me, the Yankees need to win this in six or less games, because if it goes to a Game 7 with Lee on the mound in Texas… well, let’s just say the Yankees will NOT have the advantage. If they can win the first two games of the Series, I think the Yanks can win fairly handily. If not, this is going to be a hell of a fight for them.

KEY PLAYERS: YANKEES

For the Yanks, three really stand out.
Phil Hughes: who struggled in the 2nd half after a fantastic first half, but looked excellent in his Game 3 start in the ALDS. Hughes will be expected to either help even the series if the Rangers find a way to beat or outlast Sabathia in Game 1, or help give the Yanks a 2-0 advantage going into a Game 3 against Lee. His performance could be huge.

Andy Pettitte: The crafty veteran really is the best one you can pick to face off against Lee in Game 3 (and perhaps Game 7) if it can’t be Sabathia. He’s unflappable, cool and calm in the face of pressure. He’s got more postseason wins than anyone. He looked very good in Game 2 of the ALDS, but there are still some questions about his health. It’ll be up to him to shoulder a heavy load if the Yanks are down going into Game 3 or if there is a Game 7. If he’s on, he’s the one *I* would want in that position.

Boone Logan: You know who might have been the REAL 2009 World Series MVP? It could have actually been Damaso Marte. Ok, that’s an exaggeration… but Marte was key in the postseason last year including retiring twelve in a row at one point after a little bit of a shakey start to the postseason. The Phillies two biggest bats are both lefties (Chase Utley and Ryan Howard) and neither one could touch Marte. What does that have to do with Logan? One name: Josh Hamilton. Imagine this: 1 run lead for Yanks. Bottom of the 7th inning. Two on, two out and Josh Hamilton at the plate. Who is pitching there? Joba Chamberlain? Kerry Wood? No. It’s going to be Logan, every single time. Joe Giradi will play the matchups and he should. Logan could wind up being the difference makers when it comes to neutralizing Hamilton’s incredible bat. Hamilton is 0-3 with one strike out lifetime against Logan, who was murder on lefties this year. He’s a specialist and can’t be counted on for a full inning for the most part, but his contribution could be huge.

KEY PLAYERS: RANGERS

For the Rangers, it’s quite simple:
C.J. Wilson: Lefties hit only .141 aginst him this year, something that could play a huge part with Cano, Granderson and Brett Gardner. The Yankees overall seem to struggle at times with lefthanded pitching. Wilson cannot be expected to outpitch Sabathia, but he can keep the game close and leave his team within striking distance. The Rangers pitching needs other starters to step it up besides Lee, and Wilson is one that can and should that.

Jorge Cantu: The Rangers, like the Yankees, have a strong offense. What they don’t have though, is a solid 1st baseman. Cantu has power but little else. He’s shown flashes of excellent bat control but often falls back into his normal free-swinging self. You expect big offense out of Hamilton, Kinsler, Cruz and Young (and Molinia to a lesser extent) and excellent table setting from Elvis Andus… but a hot bat in Cantu’s hands would make this team very difficult, if not impossible to shut down.

Neftali Feliz: The hotshot rookie closer had a fantastic season but was a little shakey in the ALDS against the Rays. He’s got the stuff but can he handle the pressure? Could he close out a one run lead in the ninth inning of a game in Yankee Stadium facing A-Rod, Teixeria and Cano? The Yankees know that if they go into the 9th with a lead, there is pretty much a 99.5% chance of a win. The Rangers have to wonder. Feliz needs to be a rock. There aren’t many things more demoralizing then eight great innings from a starting pitcher and then a loss when your closer gives it away in the 9th. Feliz’s performance in close games will go a long way to determining how far the Rangers go.

PREDICTION: Yankees in six, however… if it goes to a seventh game, all bets are off and I give the Rangers the nod.

The Future Aces of New York Baseball

The Yankees and Mets both have a big time ace. Two fantastic talented pitchers that should be on most people’s top five list when talking about the best pitchers in MLB. Of course I’m talking about C.C. Sabathia and Johan Santana… but the two aces have competition for the top spot on their respective teams, from two young hot shot pitchers who are making bids to show just how fantastic they can be. Of course I’m now talking about Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey. Two youngsters who are showing their teams that they can hold their own with the big budget pitchers they follow in the rotation.

Hughes is 7-1 with a 2.54 ERA. Pelfrey is 8-1 with a 2.23 ERA. Both have pitched extremely well this season. Both are in the top ten in wins and ERA for their leagues. Pelfrey even stepped in and got a save in the Mets crazy 20 inning game against the Cardinals back in April.

Hughes is following up a great 2009 in which he was 8-3 with a 3.03 ERA (and 3 saves) pitching mostly in the bullpen and eventually settling into the set up role… one he excelled at. He did make seven starts at the beginning of the season going 3-2 with a 5.45 ERA in those starts but had a terrifc year once he established his role in the bullpen. While he did have a shakey playoff role, the Yankees saw Hughes as a starter and he was given a chance to win the 5th starter job in spring training… something he did rather easily. Hughes has gone 7 innings in six of his 11 starts and has struck out 68 batters in 69.2 inning this year, avergaing almost a strikeout per inning.

Pelfrey didn’t have a great 2009, but had an excellent 2008 in which he went 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA in which he started the season 2-6 but went 11-5 down the stretch (include three hard luck losses in which he went at least 7 innings and gave up 2 or less runs). Pelfrey has been almost unstoppable lately, going 4-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last five starts in which he has faced the Braves, Yankees, Phillies and Padres (the team with the best record in the NL) twice. He’s also struck out 27 while walking only 11 in the 37.2 innings of those five starts. In other words, it’s not like he’s only putting up numbers against the dregs of Major League Baseball. He’s also gone 7, 8 and 9 innings in his last three starts, saving the bullpen.

Ironically, Hughes one loss this year was to the Mets in a game he faced off against Pelfrey.

Hughes is just 23 years old (he’ll be 24 in just under two weeks) and Pelfrey turned 26 just before the season started. Both should be around for quite some time, so feel safe in buying those Hughes and Pelfrey jerseys now, because something makes me think they both will be at the top of their rotations for years to come.

The Hughes Rules?

The Yankees have made it official, naming RHP Phil Hughes the 5th starter for the defending World Champs.

I don’t think it’s a bad move at all… if I were the Yankees I would basically be looking to keep Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen as the set up man and the eventual successor to Mariano Rivera as the team’s closer.

I have to admit I though that keeping BOTH in the bullpen would be a great idea, as anyone with a pulse should be able to be halfway decent for the Yanks and in the playoffs the 5th starter is redundant. Having both Hughes AND Joba in the bullpen could harken back to the 1998 days of Stanton, Nelson and Rivera when the Yankees bullpen was a tremendous strength.

In any case, I do think that Hughes is more likely to succeed as a starter. I don’t think Joba has the make up of a high end starter. He’s more of a “let it all hang out right now” type pitcher who seems to thrive more in short appearances. I do think he could be a very solid closer once Rivera finally hangs up his cleats. Not as good as Rivera… but then again no one the Yanks get will be.

The main concern for Hughes will be how many innings the Yanks will allow him to pitch. He only pitched 86 innings in 2009 (after throwing only 34 innings in 2008), so there is no way you ‘ll see 200 innings out of him this year. I’m guessing you’ll see a set of strict rules from the Yanks on Hughes. I don’t see him throwing more than 155 innings and even then it’s a bit of a risk and a hell of a jump. You might see Hughes in the bullpen by August no matter how well he’s pitching as a starter.

Biggest question marks: Yankees

Unlike the Mets, the Yankees don’t enter 2010 with a busload of question marks. However, that is not to say that there aren’t a decent number of questions to ask.

1. Who’s the number 5 starter… Joba or Hughes?
With the 1 – 4 spots in the rotation already fixed with Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Vazquez, the only spot up for grabs is the fifth spot. I fail to see why this is even a debate. To tell you the truth, if it was up to me, the one who would be in the rotation? Neither. Oh, calm down… hear me out beore you Yankee fans freak out. Hughes was a disaster in a starting role in 2008. Yes, I know there were some injuries but the kid hasn’t been the same in a starting role since coming out of that near no-hitter with a pulled hamstring. Joba hasn’t shown half the swagger or confidence in any of his starts that he shows when coming out of the bullpen. Hell, after last year there were question marks if he’d even be on the postseason roster. However Joba was quite decent in the bullpen in the playoffs and despite Hughes postseason struggles, he was lights out in the regular season. The idea of a hughes/joba/rivera 7th/8th/9th should give the Yankee fans a reason to drool and bring back the thoughts of Nelson/Stanton/Rivera. I’ve ALWAYS felt the key to success in baseball is a strong bullpen. The Yankees will score enough runs that the 5th starter could be my 12 year old (who actually has decent control… they should give him a shot) and he would have a chance to win 11 games. However odds are it will be Hughes as the 5th starter with Joba back in the bullpen as the setup man and heir apparent to Rivera as the eventual closer.

2. Is the starting pitching as strong as it looks?
Well… if everyone stays healthy then… well, yeah. Of course, your number 2 and 3 pitchers are both injury risks (Pettitte because of his age and Burnett because of… well… he’s Burnett) and you have no idea if you are getting the Vazquez of last year or the one that pitched for the Yanks in 2004. Yeah, I heard all about Vazquez saying he was hurt the second half of the year when he was terrible, but doesn’t EVERYONE say that when they have a rough season? However Vazquez doesn’t have to be a number 1 or 2 or even 3 as long as no one gets hurt. Listen, Sabathia is amazing and he’s not an injury risk so there’s no issue there. The number five guy only becomes important if one of the other guys goes down with injury, so for the 2010 Yanks to have any real issues with their starting rotation it’ll likely come from a health issue from Burnett and/or Pettitte. If those two guys get though the season making about 64 starts between them then there’s no issue at all. If it gets down to about 58 or less then there could be an issue. If either one makes less than 25 starts I might worry a little. It’s all about those two.

3. Will they miss Damon and Matsui?
You know, I actually think they will. The thing about these two players is, not only did they both have a swing that was tailor made for Yankee Stadium, but both were positive presences in the clubhouse. Damon was much more than just what you saw on the field and Matsui was an ultimate professional. Of course, one of the guys replacing these two is Curtis Grandserson who is widely regarded as a good guy and positive clubhouse presence in his own right. Are the Yanks going to struggle for runs? No, I don’t think so. That doesn’t mean that the absence of these two won’t be felt in some ways.

4. Can Posada make it through a full season?
Here’s a legit issue I think the Yanks should be thinking about. Here’s where the signing of Nick Johnson become a puzzler. One of the biggest reasons to part ways with Matsui was because the Yanks felt he could not play the field and they wanted to clear up the DH position to make sure Posada could have a few games a week at DH to rest those knees. However, with Johnson on the roster, the only place he can play is 1st and you’re not sitting Teixeria much so he’s going to get a majority of his at-bats at DH. Johnson is a way-below average runner and Tex is way too good a glove to be swapped out for late inning defense, so it’s obvious Johnson is only on this team to DH. This means more catching time for Posada. This means the likely-hood for a few DL stints for Jorge is fairly high.

5. Is this the year Rivera finally shows his age?
I think I’ve heard at least four times in the last five years that Mariano Rivera is at the end of the road. At this point, I think everyone needs to accept that the man is a freak of nature that we really haven’t seen before and likely will never see again. I feel bad for Rivera because once he dies and the devil collects on the “I sold my soul to be the best relief pitcher ever” deal that he obviously made back in 1995 then the poor S.O.B. will spend eternity in Hell (or as a Mets fan… it’s really the same thing). Listen, Riveria is 40 years old and will be a free agent after the 2010 season and unless he decides the retire the Yankees would be crazy not to offer him another contract… maybe even a two year deal. As far as I’m concerned the guy could pitch until he’s 50 and still be effective. No, I cannot imagine this is the year he bottoms out.

BONUS QUESTION: So, will the Yankees contend?
Ok, yeah I know it’s a stupid question. There is no doubt that the team could lose any single one of their everyday position players and still be a hell of a team. I would actually go as far as to say there are only three players on the roster that the Yankees cannot afford to lose.
1. C. C. Sabathia
2. Mariano Rivera
3. Alex Rodriguez
I’m sure everyone would agree with the first two, but why A-Rod and number 3? You saw how an unprotected Mark Teixeria struggled last year until A-Rod came back? You could expect a simular situation. Tex is a great hitter but he needs pitchers to be forced to throw fastballs at him and challenge him to be as effective as he was once A-Rod was in the lineup.
The real issue the Yanks will have is age/injury to guys like Burnett, Pettitte, Posada, Jeter, etc. Not to say they are all going down, but to lose a few of those guys, plus the fact that both Tampa Bay and Boston are as strong as the Yankees for the most part it could be a cause for some concern. Barring major injury there is no reason the Yanks won’t be in the thick of the Division Race right up to the end and into the playoffs.