Why are the Marlins better?

You know what I get a kick out of? I get a kick out of the notion that every time I hear about how terrible the Mets are, they point to the last two seasons performance and say how the team isn't any better, so it cannot perform better. Then I hear about how other teams who had problems they year before or so will be able to rise above those issues.

I'll be more specific for one in particular. Mainly... why are the Marlins considered a team that can contend in 2012?

I mean, I know why people will say. But I don't understand WHY.

Last year the Marlins finished behind the Mets. The last two years the Mets were not able to contend in the second half of the season. The last two years the Mets HAD Jose Reyes.

So, why are the Marlins suddenly a possible powerhouse because they added Jose Reyes?

Yeah, I know they added Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle... But while those are good players, how much better do they really make the Marlins?

2011 Closer Leo Nunez had 33 saves this past season (and 89 total since 2009). He wasn't flashy and he wasn't great, but he wasn't bad either. There has been rumblings about Bell not fairing as well pitching outside of San Diego. Bell experienced a drop in performance in 2011, and that drop, while certainly not encouraging, may not be a real cause for concern going forward for the Marlins... but even if he takes only a slight step downwards, he's still not a ton better. He's likely more consistant and dependable, but it's not like they had garbage there before. The upswing isn't dramatic.

Buehrle is basically going to replace Javy Vazquez, who may have been terrible in his first seven to eight starts of the season, but was fairly lights out the rest of the way with a 2.70 ERA in 153.1 innings. Is Buehrle really going to be much better than that? As with Bell, he's a very good player but he's not a big improvement over what they had before. He's averaged about 13 wins and an ERA about 4.05 the last few years. Yes, he should fare better in the NL than he did in the AL... but again... by much much better is he going to be than what they had in Vazquez for most of 2011?

The big thing with The Marlins is going to be the return of Josh Johnson, and the expectation (which is a fair expectation to have) that Hanley Rameriez will return to his normal self after a disasterous 2011 Season.

To me, the Marlins 2012 success relies heavily upon Johnson. If he comes back and is the same, the Marlins have an arm that can match up with the best in the MLB. Johnson is lights out and is on par with names like Halliday, Lee, Lincecum, Sabathia and Lester. If he's not the samee... say he's at like 75% of what he was, he'll still likely be better than a large chunk of other pitchers, which would still improve the Marlins from 2011. If he cannot pitch to anything close to his regular form or if he's unable to return at all or only makes like 10-12 starts for the season, it's going to hurt them. A lot.

Which brings us back to Reyes.

In 2010 the Marlins finished 80-82. At the time they had a great season from John Johnson and Hanley Rameriz and still had all-star second baseman Dan Uggla who hit .287 with 33 HRs and 105 RBI.

I know Reyes is a different player than Uggla... but the Marlins couldn't even finish at .500 that year.

In both 2010 AND 2011, the Mets were picked as a team who would not really be in contention. Yet, both years they had Reyes... and David Wright... and Jason Bay... and Johan Santana... and Carlos Beltran... and K-Rod...

See where I'm going here?

So.. I put the question again... why just by adding the three players they did, suddenly make a team that has finished below .500 the last two years suddenly a team that is expected to contend?

Cause I don't see it. In fact, I'll go one further...

The Marlins... with their question marks... and the brittle Reyes as their centerpiece (fair is fair... I had to listen ever year how the Mets couldn't fully expect Reyes to go the whole season without a DL trip or two) are NOT a team you can say is fully better than the Mets.

(And no, I have NOT forgotten about Carlos Zambrano. I don't think that was a good move for them and do not expect a lot from him.)

Summing up the last three days

So each time I thought i knew what I was going to write about here, something else popped up. It's been quite a whirlwind last few days and instead of trying to overload about one particular thing or the other, let's just tackle it all head on... shall we?

ON THE REYES DEAL: Ok, plain and simple? This is a rough blow to the Mets and their fans. Looking at what the Marlins got him for (6 years, $106 million with a 7th option year that would be worth $22 million riding with a $5 million buyout which makes it a guarentee of $111 million) it's kind of hard to imagine the Mets allowed him to go when they were fairly close in a five year $85 million range. Frankly, the fact the Mets were unable (not unwilling, which they will say they were also) to match that offer or come fairly close enough to matter to Reyes is frightening. They are a New York team with a huge fanbase in a still mostly new stadium in a tremendous market. The fact this franchise is unable to give an extra year and $20 million to their BEST player to keep him is unacceptable. Yes, I agree he is a health risk, but the fact is this: over his career, when Reyes has been healthy and scored runs, the Mets winning percentage was HIGH. And to allow him to go to a HATED division rival? Unreal. Reyes saying the Mets never made an offer is kind of untrue, since his agents knew exactly what the Mets parameters were, but yeah, they could have showed him a little love and at least tried to dine him a little to let him know how important he was to the franchise. The freakin Marlins called Reyes EVERYDAY. The Mets had little contact. You have to know your own players and anyone who didn;t realize this would be a factor to Reyes dropped the ball. From what Sandy Aldersen has sadi, the mets and Reyes' sgents actually had a good conversation ojn Friday night and was positive enough to spur the Marlins to add a year and another $22 million to their offerand after that the Mets didn't even get the chance to counter since the Marlin's gave a take-it-or-leave-it to the Reyes camp. Well, they took it. Nice job there Sandy.

ON THE RAUCH SIGNING: It's not terrible, but it's not great either. Yes Jon Rauch is a very servicible arm and maybe last year was more of a blip than the way he's heading, but he has an ERA of over 5.00 last year. It's a one year deal for $3.5 million so it's not bad, and odds are he's better than most of what they already had, but this is more of an "OK, let's wait and see" deal then a "WOW!" deal.

ON THE FRANCISCO SIGNING: I can honestly say that the only closer i wanted to see LESS than this was Cordero. Listen, I know this guy has a great arm and packs serious heat. But he lost his closers job TWICE in the last two seasons. The Blue Jays has 25 blown saves last year (which is where Francisco and Rauch both are coming from) and as good of an arm as he has, Francisco is also prone to erratic periods. If this was a one year, $4 or $5 million deal I would be more impressed and happy. It being a 2-yr, $12 million deal? Too much, in my opinion. As with Rauch, yes he improves the bullpen, but I'm going to have to wait and see how this turns out. My prediction? He starts the year as the closer and is NOT the closer when the season ends.

ON THE PAGAN FOR TORRES/RAMIREZ TRADE: I'm torn on this one. I was a big Angel Pagan fan. I know he had a rough 2011 and that there was a ton of reports his work ethic and baseball IQ was nil. I know there was a lot of unhappiness about the "dehydration" issues that took him out of a lot of games. I still liked him and thought he was a solid player. Torres and Pagan are very simular type of players. I know Torres has a much better rep as a hard worker and excellent clubhouse presence and he has much more pop. I also know Pagan is a few years younger and a much better overall hitter. Both have about 20 SB a year speed. The big cog here was getting Ramon Ramirez. Now HE is who I'm impressed with getting. In my opinion, he will be the Mets closer by mid-season and will be very solid in that role. He improves the bullpen a lot on his own, and with Rauch and francisco, yeah... the bullpen in twice as good, if not more, than last year, where the mets were pretty terrible for the most part.

ON THE POSSIBILITY OF TRADING WRIGHT: Listen, right now, the Mets have VERY little star power. They have Wright. They have Johan Santana. The have a budding possible star in Ike Davis. Aaaaaaaaaaand that's really it. The loss of Reyes changes things dramatically in people's eyes. I mean, Bay's star is so fallen I cannot see it ever rising even close to where it was five years ago. Daniel Murphy is a solid bat with a suspect glove that will be beloved by smart Mets' fans and mostly dismissed by anyone else. Lucas Duda is still no one and Dillion Gee and Jon Niese have a far way to go. So take Wright from this team, and exactly why are people going to come watch them? The attendance is bad. VERY bad. It will not get better if Wright goes. IT WILL GET WORSE.

ON REBUILDING: Yeah, at this point you have to say that is what the Mets are pretty much doing. Listen, unless they shock everyone and dive head first into the free agent market next year, the mets are likely to have a young team looking to be in contention around 2014. They have some serious arms in the minors that are likely at least a year and a half to two years away. They have some other very soild position players who could be ready in that time period as well. The problem is, the Mets have NOT said to their fanbase "We are in rebuilding mode" and without a real "direction" the fans have no idea what is going on. If the mets had kept Reyes, I do not think a rebuild tag would be placed on the team, but without him, you have to consider that the fact.

ON THE RUMORS THAT NIESE AND DAVIS ARE TRADE BAIT: I'm sure the Mets are doing due dilligance, and talking about everyone and everyone just to gauge the market and if someone offered something insane like a top five pitching prospect (a la them getting Zach Wheeler for Beltran this past summer) and a high position prospect for one of them I guess they would have to seriously make the move, but I cannot, just flat out cannot see them doing something like this. It makes no sense. Neither player makes any real money and both have shown some serious talent so far. Many people (myself included) feel Davis is a serious .290, 30/35, 105 RBI guy with a great glove. Many people (myself included) see Niese as a VERY solid, higher end #3 starter... maybe even a lower end #2 down the line. Both have showne they can handle New York. Trading either would only make the fans think the team has flat out lost it. Gain, if they get bowled over, I can justify it. Otherwise, it makes little to no sense.

It's hard to be a Mets fan right now. The immediate future is not very bright and 2014 seems far away. I DO like the Mets brain trust of Alderson and crew and i do thik it's smart to build up the minors to the point you are more like the Rays than the Mets of 2009. But I have a fear that as long as the Wilpons own this team that there are some serious dark days ahead.

I assure you... we ARE open

Yeah, so I took the 2011 Baseball season off. There were a lot of reasons, and the inability to commit the proper time to the blog was the largest. However, I'm back and making a go of this. I actually started up and writing yesterday, which was the day the Marlins signed Jose Reyes, which just shows the type of wonderful timing I have. Yay.

Who says the Mets couldn't sign Pujols?

You know, I'm getting a little tired of this.

Everyone and his brother has basically written the Mets off as a franchise at this point. The Madoff Ponzi scheme hit the Mets' principal owners hard. In that there is no doubt. There is a definite chance that it will effect the Mets organization.

A chance.

However, from everything I'm reading and hearing, pretty much the world is expecting the Mets to become the New York version of the Pittsburg Pirates. A team that will spend little and have few reasons to expect a winning future anytime soon.

This is just flat out ridiculous.

First off, even with the lack of big spending this offseason, the Mets will STILL be in the top part of payroll in the Major Leagues. The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Tigers and Cubs will have higher payrolls. That is pretty much it.

Second, the Mets may not have been SMART with money in the past, but they have not been cheap. They have often been in the mix for high profile players.

With the news that the St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols have not reached an agreement on a contact extention by this past Wednesday's deadline, many people are spectulating exactly what will happen to the best player in baseball.

I, myself, still think there is a better than decent chance he will return to the Cardinals. In my opinion, the second most likely place for him is actually the Chicago Cubs.

But I've heard time and time again how the Red Sox and Yankees, along with the Angels and Rangers are all possible landing spots. This despite both the Sox and Yankees having younger, big time, long term signed 1st basemen already (yes, I think the Adrian Gonzales signing is a for-gone conclusion). The same "experts" mention the Mets and in every case dismiss any possibility that the Mets would pursue, much less be able to sign Pojols. They use the Mets inability to spend, lack of history of spending, or lack of resources as the reasons.

I say bull$*!#.

Give me a break here. Without even much research I could come up with the bare bones of a scenerio where the Mets could look to sign Pujols and still be able to field a very competitive club for years to come.

Ok, follow me here. My number projections could likely be somewhat a little low, but in all honesty are more than in the ballpark.

The Mets have $60 million coming off the books after this season. That much is known and not under debate.

However, part of this goes away when you factor in the fact that Francisco Rodriguez can trigger a fourth year in his existing 3-year deal at $17.5 million if he finishes 55 games in 2011. I have no idea if that will happen or not. Somehow I get the idea that Sandy Alerson doesn't want to lay a closers $17.5 million. I do not know if that option remains if the Mets trade him in 2011. Last year was the first time since becoming a closer that K-Rod didn't finish 55 games. If he hadn't gotten into the altercation with his father-in-law he would have likely finished 55 games though. He pitched in 46 before messing up his thumb on August 14th.

So, ok... K-Rod could still be on the team and making $17.5 million. I will keep that in mind and paint the scenario as if he will be a Met in 2012.

The other notable free agents in 2012 for the Mets are Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, and Oliver Perez. There are other names coming off too, but I'll stick with the bigger ones for now.

Reyes is going to make $11 million in 2011. Let's say you resign Reyes and he gets a 6 year, $88 million dollar contract with a fairly easily obtainable (if healthy in years 5 and 6) 7th year option that would round out the whole contract at about $103 million. That is an average of roughly $14.7 million a year. Say it's $13.5 million in 2010 then the rest of the contract averages $14.9 a year. Would that be enough? Factoring in his health issues I think that is somewhere in the realm.

By letting Beltran ($18 million), Castillo ($6 million) and Perez ($12 million) go, you automatically have a $36 million set to play with for 2012. Yeah I know you're not looking to spend that all on one player and the Mets are supposedly looking to keep the payroll slightly on the south side of $140 million in 2012. No worry... you still can.

But wait! It's not REALLY $36 million free. Why? Reyes has a $2.5 million dollar raise in 2012. K-Rod gets a $3.5 raise (assuming he is still on the team). That is $31 million from your $60 million coming off the books. That leaves you actualy with $29 million left of that $60 coming off the books.

Still, no problem here.

Ok, we're going to look at this keeping not just 2012 in mind, but also 2013, 2014 and 2015 (if not 2016).

The Mets could offer Pujols a nine year, $247.5 million (averaging at $27.5 million a year).

The Reyes/Pujols/K-Rod contracts in 2012 would combine for $58.5 million. Then they could spin the very talented Ike Davis in a trade with another young pitching prospect (or more likley highly regarded Shortstop prospect Wilmer Flores since you now have another 6 years of Reyes at short anyway) for a front end of the rotation arm.

For 2012 (and going forward) you would look to have rookie Reese Havens as your 2nd baseman, Josh Thole as your catcher, Jon Neise and Dillion Gee in the rotation, Angel Pagan as your centerfielder and Lucas Duca, Fernando Martinez or Cory Vaughn in rightfield. Pagan, Thole, Neise and Gee all will have a few years of Major league experiance meaning your are really only looking at two rookies in the lineup. None of these players will make a lot of money (except possibly Pagan) for at least the first four to five years of Pujols' contract. Gee could actually find himself in the bullpen if Chris Young really works out or if Jenrry Mejia is able to crack the starting rotation.

Yes having two rookies in an everyday line up is a little scary, but look at the lineup:

Reyes
Pagan
Wright
Pujols
Bay
Havens
Duca, Martinez or Vaughn
Thole

You also have a possible Daniel Murphy in that mix with Havens at second.

Add in a healthy Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Niese Gee/Mejia/Young and whom ever you can spin Davis/Flores for (say a Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley type) and you have a pretty good team.

That team would be right about at the $140 million mark. Most likely a somewhat over depending on raises for other players and who leaves and who else comes on. It's viable though... add in the crackshot management team of Alderson, Riccardi and Co. and it's not something you can just dismiss as impossible.

Also if the Mets keep K-Rod's option from vesting or they manage to trade him, then there is more money on the table (with someone like Bobby Parnell as a possible replacement as closer).

And do you think for a second ticket sales wouldn't go through the roof? They would. Even if the Mets raise ticket prices as a result (which they liikely would).

Citifield would become a rockin place with buzz they haven't had since the Mets traded for Mike Piazza back in 1998.

Is it likely? I didn't say that. Are my numbers off? Most likely, but I would wager they aren't TOO far off.

But could it happen?

Yeah, it could. Never say never.

Going Overboard

I don’t think it’s a secret that I’m extremely unhappy with the Mets organization as a whole. The front office is run like it’s a Three Stooges film. The direction of the team seems to flux every other week. The man in charge, Jeff Wilpon, seems to think he’s a baseball guru when in reality his knowledge and decision making is hurting the team.

While reading MetsBlog.com yesterday, I saw a post by Michael Baron that discussed how SI.com columnist Jeff Pearlman seems to have the same thoughts as I do. In his column, Pearls of Wisdom, Jeff makes a number of points simular to ones I, and many others, have made about the state of the franchise.

However, Jeff goes on to basically destroy the team overall. He calls the Mets “the worst franchise in baseball” saying the team is so bad that calling them dreadful is “an insult to dread”. The big quote (which was highlighted by Mike on MetsBlog.com) from Jeff’s column reads:

“No, the 2010 Mets are simply worthless. They are a listless, heartless, wretched baseball team; an entertainment value sans entertainment, playing ugly within the confines of beautiful new Citi Field. When the biggest story of the year is Francisco Rodriguez, your star closer, beating up the grandfather of his kids, well, you’ve for problems.”

The other quote that jumped out at me was:

“Put simply, the Mets’ roster doesn’t work. Jose Reyes is one of the best shortstops in baseball, and David Wright can say the same at third. When healthy, Carlos Beltran is an elite center fielder. Ike Davis looks excellent at first base. Angel Pagan makes a superb fourth outfielder. Johan Santana still throws nasty stuff and, uh…. That’s about it. Save for Wright, the middle of the lineup is a wasteland. Castillo, once an All-Star with the Marlins, might be the least-motivated ballplayer in America. Maine hasn’t contributed anything good in 2 1/2 years. Perez is a head case. Jon Niese reminds one of Joe Price.”

Wow. And you guys thought *I* was harsh.

There’s a huge flaw in Jeff’s column here. He’s right about the way the Mets have played the last month and he’s right about the front office’s apparent inability to do anything about the albatross that is Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo. However, Jeff is so off-base about many other things that it’s almost like he was going over the top on purpose to spark debate and outrage.

First off, Jeff says “When the biggest story of the year is Francisco Rodriguez your star closer, beating up the grandfather of his kids, well, you’ve for problems.”

Really. THAT is the Mets biggest story of the year?

- Not Ike Davis and how well he’s performed as a rookie thrust into the limelight? Something that Jeff HIMSELF states in his column?
- Not R. A. Dickey and a long career finally met with success?
- Not Jon Niese putting together a solid season and showing he belongs? Oh wait… Jeff states he’s Joe Price.
- Not Angel Pagan’s rise from bench player to honest to goodness starter? Oh wait, that’s right… Jeff calls him a good “4th outfielder”.
Jeff ignores any of the above because ignoring those little tib-bits is needed for the sake of his article. He can’t talk about any of that, because he needs to show the train wreck only so his point is driven home.
Jeff goes on to say the Mets have no talent other than Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Santana. He says their roster “doesn’t work”.

Well, he IS right in that it’s not working right now, but a lineup starting with Reyes, Pagan, Wright, Beltran, Bay and Davis (as long as all are healthy) is a pretty good one. Betran’s still rusty after missing so much time the last year (although he’s showing serious signs of coming out of it), and Bay’s on the DL (and is having a terrible year regardless) but that lineup SHOULD work and it can.

Where Jeff really loses me in comment like Jon Niese is Joe Price. It was very nice of him to go digging into the baseball archives to find a below .500 pitcher who really no one else in Amercia would ever use as a description to Niese. I kind of fail to see the comparison. I’m sure Joe Price is glad to see his name in print… likely for the first time in a long time. I’m curious to know how he even came up with that comparison though. Admit it Jeff, you’ve been holding on to that name for a awhile… just itching to use it somewhere… right?
For those of you who do not know, Joe Price was a pitcher for the Reds, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles over a ten year career. He fluxuated between being a starter and a relief pitcher earlier in his career before become a spot starter but mostly a bullpen arm. He stared off with some sucess, going 7-3 with a 3.56 ERA for the Reds in 1980, faired well is a reliver in 1981 with a 6-1 record, 2.52 ERA and 4 saves, and then kind of settled into an average, non-descript career from that point on finishsing with a career record of 45-49 with a 3.65 ERA. He retired after the 1990 season. The only real comparison I can make between him and Niese is that they are both lefthanded.


Yes, the Mets overpaid for Jason Bay… pretty much like most teams have overpaid for larger name (and even lower name) free agents. There is no reason to think that Bay cannot bounce back from a horrible first season in Queens. Many players struggle in their first years in New York. His past makes me willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. He came onto the team with his frist real huge contract, which I’m sure he was compelled to live up to. There was no Carlos Beltran in the lineup. He’s hitting in Citifield which messes up some players (see David Wright in 2009). I think Bay will bounce back the way Wright bounced back this year.

Of course there’s been bad moves. Yeah, Castillo’s contact was two years too much and Perez was a mistake overall. I won’t argue there. They were mistakes the Mets should be willing to eat and get rid of, and they haven’t. Jeff is 100% correct there.

But Jeff would have to admit the Mets, as “dreadful” as they have been in the 2nd half, were pretty exciting and were anything but “listless” until the All-Star break. His description fits for their 2nd half play so far, but not the first. the 2010 Mets aren’t worthless. The Mets of the last month are. Maybe we should wait to see how they finish before the 2010 season is declared with that classification.

The problem with Jeff’s article is that he has some great and true points… but it’s hard to accept any of his logic when he overdoes it on such an extrame scale and says things that just aren’t really correct. It’s like he felt the need to “pad” his point with “facts” that really just don’t pan out.

To ignore some of the things I brought up above for the sake of making his column look right that the Mets are “the worst franchise in baseball” is pretty self serving and lazy. I think clubs like the Orioles, Pirates, Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, A’s, Royals and Nationals might fall into that conversation also.

Heck, the Yankees have made as many bad moves as the Mets have, but are willing to just WAY overspend to fix their mistakes. Something I agree the Mets should also be willing to do.

The Mets are run badly. I agree. Ownership needs someone to open their eyes and get little Jeffy Wilpon out of the driver’s seat. The organization needs a total change of ideology. Jeff’s column is right on the money when it comes to that, but he didn’t stop there. He had to go way too far and frankly, I feel it’s kind of embarrassing. Did Jeff even WATCH this team before July 14th?

The last month HAS been terrible from an offense standpoint, however the starting pitching has been stellar. That alone keeps them from being “worthless”. There are changes needed, and hopefully those changes will come… but this isn’t a terrible team and there is a lot of talent on it. It’s just run wrong. I think Jeff may be too biased or maybe too shortsighted to see that… I don’t know if that’s so, but it’s true.
Now Jeff might argue that his article clearly states that he compared the Mets to a big summer blockbuster movie. He used the films “Godzilla” and “A.I.” as his examples. He said:
“Nine years after A.I. rotted the brains of millions of Americans, the film has finally found its baseball brethren. Throughout the majors, there will always be Godzillas — teams like the Royals and Pirates and Nationals that offer customers low expectations and a product to match.”

Ok, the problem with that is that almost EVERYONE gave the Mets no chance to contend this year. No one did. Heck, the average position the team was picked to finish in was 4th. The fact the team was totally in the thick of it until basically August (and still technically are) was a total surprise to the baseball world. If Jeff claims otherwise, I’d like to see the column where he said in the preseason or in the first few weeks of the season where he thought they would contend. I can. I predicted the Mets would contend and the main reason *I’m* mad about the last month so much is because the Mets are basically a MUCH better team then how they’ve played the last month and I expect more from them.
So in the end, don’t insult my intelligence for the sake of looking like some heavy handed master mind of baseball. The entire column’s message is undermined by the fact that Jeff talks down to us like we can’t tell the difference between what is reality and what is just going way over the line. The problem with it is, that Jeff is guilty of the same thing he accuses the Mets off… not acknowledging the issue on their front doorstep. It’s one thing to point of the shortcomings of an organization. It’s quite another thing to ignore ANY positives so you can paint the picture of total bleakness just so you look justified in being 100% negative. I expect better from an SL.com columnist. Hopefully next time I’ll get it.

To read Jeff’s column in full, go to: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jeff_pearlman/08/16/pearlman.mets/index.html?eref=sihp

What Now?

Ok, so the Mets are techically still in the playoff hunt. They’re on the fringe, but still in it.

But not really.

The Mets are 8 1/2 games behind the Braves for the NL East lead and 7 1/2 games back in the wild card from the Giants (maybe soon to be 7 games back since the Giants are training the Cubs inthe 5th). There are four teams betwen them and the Giants for the Wild Card . It’s not going to be an easy task and it’s one the Mets look ill equiped to handle they way they’ve played since the all-star break.

They’ve made a few moves including releasing Alex Cora and bringing up youngsters Fernando Martienez and Ruben Tejada. What does that mean? Likely they want to see if these guys can play at this level because I get the feeling they both are auditioning for roles with the club in 2011.

Fred Wilpon seemingly gave GM Omar Minaya a vote of confidence for 2011 which shows once again the orgainzation doesn’t have it’s thumb on the pulse of reality.

Everyone and his brother is saying the Mets have no money to spend and will not be players in this offseason’s free agent market. If this is true, you are going to see a very young team next year.

Let’s assume that the Mets part ways with Jeff Francour, John Maine and Sean Green. Let’s also say they finally wake up and let go of Oliver Perez since there is no way he’ll ever be able to throw a meaningful pitch for the Mets ever again.

So right off the bat, seeing who are pretty much no doubts… the roster looks like this:

INFIELDERS
Jose Reyes
Luis Castillo
Ike Davis
David Wright
Josh Thole

OUTFIELDERS
Angel Pagan
Carlos Beltran
Jason Bay

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Jon Neise
R. A. Dickey

BULLPEN
Francisco Rodriguez
Hisanori Takahashi
Bobby Parnell

That’s 15 players.

Pedro Feliciano is a free agent. I think the Mets resign him since he’s been pretty much invaluble. So add him. Now, with only one year left on Castillo’s contract… can the Mets move him? Owed $6 million, if the Mets eat say… $4 million I’m sure a team might chance $2 million on a veteran 2nd baseman, but who knows. For now he stays on the roster. I can see the Mets keeping Tejada on the roster either in a platoon or as the starting second baseman if he performs well enough the rest of 2010.

With Feliciano and Tejada, that makes 17 on the roster now.

You need another catcher to likely platoon with Thole. Either Henry Blanco or Rob Barajas will likely be back. Let’s say it’s the better hitting and younger Barajas. Rounding out the bench you will likely see Chris Carter and Daniel Murphy playing utility/pinch hitter roles.

That’s 20 players.

You still need another starter, and three more bullpen arms or two more arms and one more hitter.

Odds are, Manny Acosta or Jenrry Mejia will be on the team in the bullpen. Let’s say it’s Acosta.

Three more spots now.

You may have names like Raul Valdes and Ryota Igarashi in the mix. Let’s say Valdes makes it.

Two spots.

Here is where the Mets will likely spend free agent money on.

Now if you told me those two spots would be Cliff Lee and say… Jason Werth… well… Then I would say the Mets are contenders next year.

They won’t be.

Hell, Cliff Lee alone would be a solid move and at least give he fans some hope.

I doubt we’ll see him even rumored.

I think there might be a chance for a Bronson Arroyo, a Ted Lilly or a Javy Vazquez. Let’s say it’s Arroyo for argument’s sake.

You’d have a club of:

INFIELDERS
Jose Reyes
Luis Castillo
Ike Davis
David Wright
Josh Thole
Rob Barajas
Ruben Tejada
Daniel Murphy

OUTFIELDERS
Angel Pagan
Carlos Beltran
Jason Bay
Chris Carter

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Jon Neise
R. A. Dickey
Bronson Arroyo

BULLPEN
Francisco Rodriguez
Pedro Feliciano
Hisanori Takahashi
Bobby Parnell
Raul Valdes
Manny Acosta

You’d have one spot left for either another outfielder or another bullpen arm. Fernando Martienez perhaps? A Vetern like an Austin Kerns?

Could that team compete?

If you knew you could count on Bay returning to form and Beltran having a great season in his walk year maybe it could.

I don’t know right now.

All I know is the Mets better pick a plan and stick with it. The management once again looks like a pack of unorganized fools.

What do you think? Could that team I listed above be contenders?

Reyes is the Straw that Sturs the Mets’ Drink

During a rough patch in which the Mets lost nine out of eleven and fell from second place into last, Jose Reyes went 10 for 47 for a .212 batting average and scoring 6 runs.

In the last five games (in which the Mets have won four of) he is 9 for 24 for a .375 batting average and 5 runs.

During that fantastic streak in which the Mets won 10 out of 11 games, Reyes was 13 for 41 for a .317 batting average and 10 runs.

See a pattern yet? I did… so, after digesting that info I took a quick look at Reyes’ production in the Mets wins and losses for the entire season.

The Mets are an amazing 15 -4 in games that Reyes scores at least 1 run. They are an astoundingly bad 6 – 16 in games in which he plays and does NOT score a run. They were 2-2 in the four games at the beginning of the season in which he did not play.

So what does that tell you?

Well you certainly don’t need a calculator to figure it out. Without production from Reyes, the Mets don’t win. Simple as that.

There’s no secret formula here people. Reyes had excellent seasons in 2006, 2007 and 2008. The Mets were contenders each of those years. In 2007, when the Mets dropped six of their last seven to lose the division on the last day of the season, Reyes was 5 for 32 for a .156 batting average and 3 runs (scoring in the one game they won in that last seven).

This is a team that has a lot of talent. David Wright, Jason Bay, Ike Davis and (eventually) Carlos Beltran are all excellent hitters who can (and at times will) carry a team on their backs…. however, the Mets are built to win around the guy who energizes his ballclub more than almost any player in baseball. If he hits and runs and scores, the teams wins.

So for all of your screaming to trade Jose Reyes… take a look at those numbers and realize the guy is freaking 26. He has a LOT of baseball still in him and in reality most ballplayers hit their peak at age 28-30. In other words… HE’S ONLY GOING TO GET BETTER.

Is Reyes a frustrating player? Absolutely. He drives me as nuts as the next guy… but the Mets need him and when he’s on… well… damn he’s one of the best.

You See… The Phillies are Just Jerks

So what do you call a team that cheats, and when called out about it, tries to deflect things to bitch about a division rival… one that your team has basically ridiculed for three years?

You call that team the Two Time Defending National League Champions apparently.

So a number of news outlets (including Yahoo Sports, MetsBlog.com, ESPN and CBS Sports) have reported that The Colorado Rockies accused the Phillies bullpen coach, Mick Billmeyer, of using binoculars to steal signs from their catcher during monday’s game (a 9 – 5 win for Philadelphia). This follows other complaints about the Phillies including both the LA Dodgers and NY Yankees making the same claims during the playoffs last year.

After viewing some videotape, the Commisioner’s Office informed the Phillies that they would not be allowed to use binoculars during games. No one from the Commisioner’s office actually used the word “cheating” or “stealing signs” or “stealing sequences”, but the general concensus seems to be the Phillies have a reputation for this sort of thing.

So, of course, what does Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel do when asked about it?

Why… he attacks the Mets of course. Manuel was quoted saying: “Somebody maybe ought to check the Mets if they did that. Their [bleeping] home record is out of this world and they’re losing on the road. Sometimes that’s a good indicator of getting signs and [crap]. I see somebody sitting there at 17-2 at home and 4-12 on the road, I’d get concerned about that. That kind of crosses my mind… I’m not accusing them, but you look at that and – damn. We’re about the same home and road. I’m just saying their record is much better at home and they hit better… (The Rockies complained) because we beat them… Keep crying. I’m sure if they can steal signs, they’ll steal them. And believe we will, too, if we can get them. Yeah, we will. Legally. If you’re dumb enough to let us get them, then that’s your fault. That’s been in the game for a long time.”

Manuel went on to say that his coach was only using binoculars to check out the positioning of his own catcher during Colorado at-bats. Right… despite the fact that the cameras showed Billmeyer using the binoculars during Phillies at-bats… NOT during the time his catcher would have been on the field playing defense.

Even if you ignore that bit of info and try and forget the fact that television cameras captured outfielder Shane Victorino chatting to someone on the bullpen phone in the Phillies dugout… it doesn’t change the fact that the Phillies manager totally used a baseless accusation towards a division rival to deflect the glare from his own team’s wrongdoing. A runner at 2nd basebase trying to see a catcher’s sign and relay it to the batter is one thing… that happens. A coach using some sort of equipment, be it binoculars or a camera of sorts is plain cheating.

Amazingly yet, there Metsblog.com reported that there were whispers of the Phillies doing the same thing against the Mets in the early season series this year when facing Mets’ ace Johan Santana who strangely enough had his worst outing of the year by far that night. “Some people were talking, amongst us, the bullpen coach would come out and hang over the fence when they were hitting,” Rod Barajas said yesterday, according to The Associated Press, regarding Santana’s start. “And then when we were hitting they were sitting back.”

There were complaints about the Phillies using a camera in centerfield and trying to catch signs back in 2007 by the Mets and The Boston Red Sox also.

Ok… so am I the only one who sees a pattern here? Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Victorino… they all seem to be obsessed with the Mets… which makes no sense seeing that the Phillies have won the damn division the last three years. Two of those years the Mets handed them the division on a platter… so maybe they realize they WOULDN’T have won them without the Mets collapse and that bothers them… but in any case… to constantly bring up the Mets in a negative light every time there’s something to be talked about is just plain being a team of jerks.

Hamels has called the Mets “choke artists” and said “we think they always will until they prove us wrong”.

Victorino threw an elbow into Jose Reyes’ chest during a rundown while on the basepaths during a game early last season that should have resulted in Victorino being out at the end of the play. Somehow the ump blew it and called Reyes for obstruction. He was called safe (when he was actually out). Victorino would then score when the inning continued (when it should have been over) and the next hitter hit a homerun. Not only was the bush play bad enough, but after the game Victorino snickered about it and called the Mets whiners.

This from a team that complained non-stop about Jose Reyes “over-celebrating” in 2006 and 2007.

Fact is, the Phillies are a bunch of unlikeable schmucks. They brag, they insult, they seemingly cheat, and when things don’t go their way they whine. Yet, people are supposed to believe the Mets are the “bad guys” and the Phillies are the blue-collar heroes.

Please. Enough is enough. The Mets need to make a stand against this team of idiots. In my opinion, their leadoff hitter needs a plunking in the first inning of the first game the two teams next play. Hopefully Victorino will be leading off.

Rivalry is one thing. Being a fricking ass is quite another. Time to shut the damn Phillies up.

Reyes’ Batting Dilemma

Well, we’re a few weeks into the great Jose Reyes Batting Third experiment, and overall, while he has had some success there, I think the move is not the best of ideas.

One of the biggest complaints about Reyes over the years has been his lack of patience at the plate. It seems he swings at everything sometimes, especially bad pitches in the dirt.

In the number three hole, it seems to me that Reyes is looking more for the big hit… swinging for the fences, as if he needs to up his power numbers to justify batting in a position that is considered one that drives in runs.

Whether this is Reyes’ mindset or not, it at least LOOKS like that’s what he’s doing, and that is just a big mistake.

Reyes should be looking to make contact… drive the ball and make things happen. His apporch to hitting shouldn’t be any different than if he was still batting leadoff. Hit the ball, use his speed… cause havoc out there on the basepaths… that should be his main concern.

He’s not even stealing bases at his point… which is a total mystery to me.

This has been one of my biggest problems with Jerry Manual. He’s got all of this speed on his team, but he doesn;t ever seem to run wild. Say what you will about Willie Randolph as a manager… but he understood how important the running game was with his team and he used it perfectly.

Reyes has 4 stolen bases on the season. He should have had that last week alone.

At this point I would much rather Reyes return to his leadoff spot in the order. Leave Luis Castillo (who isn’t doing too bad so far this season) in the 2-hole for now and bat either Wright or Bay 3rd (I would make it Wright who seems to have had more solid at bats this season overall than Bay so far). Once Beltran is back you can bat him 3rd (IF he comes back that is).

But Reyes? But him back in leadoff and just set the light for green on him. Please Jerry… let the kid run. Enough of this experiment… it’s had it’s moments, but let’s get back to the basics here, ok?

Yes he does… no he doesn’t…

After a number of tests in NYC Jose Reyes says that his condition is basically a “mild and perhaps temporary case of hyperthyroidism,” which may not even require any treatment at all and he could be creared to play baseball within the next 24 to 48 hours.

He was also quoted as saying he’s been all but cleared by the doctors checking him out in NYC. He told ESPN “The specialists who took care of me in New York have told me that I’m fine and that there’s nothing wrong with my thyroid… We just have to wait for the results of the additional test. The [doctors] found inflammation in my throat and no medicine to treat the thyroid or any other condition has been prescribed.”

All good news right?

So, of course, the Mets have totally different information.

Mets GM Omar Minaya was quoted as saying that Reyes DOES have “elevated thyroid levels,” and while Reyes supposedly told ESPN different, the team is still waiting on addtional test results, and THOSE results will pretty much dictate when Reyes returns to baseball action.

Minaya went on to say that we has spoken to Reyes Agent (Peter Greenberg), and team doctors but not to Reyes himself. He also said that “everyone is on the same page.”

Well, obviously not there Omar.

So, once again we seem to have a gap in communication between the Mets, medical staff and the player. What a shock.

What else does Mets management need to do to show there is a necessary change required? Wear t-shirts that say “I’m with stupid?”

This is getting out of hand guys. It seems this sort of this is just commenplace. It’s embarrasing. It really is.

Spring Ahead: Most important players

We are a few days away from four wonderful words: Pitchers and catchers report.

As we look forward to spring training getting into full bloom, there are a lot of questions for a lot of teams. However, for some teams to succeed, there are certain players that really need to step up. Let’s take a look at some players that are integral to the success of their teams.

RAFAEL SORIANO, TAMPA BAY RAYS: This is a young and talented team, with a line up that many MLB clubs will envy. However, more than anything else the Rays pitching needs to be good to be able to keep pace with the Yankees and Red Sox in the powerhouse AL East. Starters David Price and James Shields are extremely important pieces and the Rays MUST have a big time year from at least one of these guys, but for the Rays I feel that new Closer Rafael Soriano is the key. The Rays won the AL East in 2008 and competed last year without a real closer. This year they have a guy who has the stuff and the experiance… if he can just stay healthy. Soriano was fairly healthy last year playing just about the full season so there is reason to be optimistic. He has the talent to save 40 games… but does he have the stamina? If he does, the Rays will be that much more likely to be able to outlast the big guns in their division.

RICH HARDEN, TEXAS RANGERS: There is no doubt the Rangers are a hitting team. To play in their ballpark they have to be. I considered the idea that slugger Josh Hamilton, the feel-good-story of 2008, might be the guy the Rangers really need to return to prominace after an injury riddled 2009, but looking at the Rangers I see what they REALLy lack is a true Ace… a guy at the top of the rotation that can step it up every five days and make you say, “We’re winning today”. Scott Feldman’s excellent 2009 not-withstanding… the Rangers don’t have that. Or do they? They took a chance that Rich Harden can stay healthy for a full (or at least most of) season. They really isn’t too much doubt about Harden’s ability. If he can make 30/31 starts for the Rangers the teams chances to truly contend take a nice upswing.

JOSE REYES & JOHN MAINE, NEW YORK METS: Ok, yeah I’m cheating a little here. This is one of the few teams that I just couldn’t pick one guy. There is going to be a lot of debate about the Mets in this upcoming weeks. This is the exact same team (swapping out Carlos Delgado for Jason Bay) that was picked by many to win the World Series last year… so why does everyone seem to think they will be terrible in 2010? Mainly because of the large amount of players coming back from injury. However none are more important than Jose Reyes and John Maine. Reyes is the key to the Mets’ offense. When he gets on base and runs, the Mets score. A lot. Look it up, but a productive Reyes means a productive lineup. As for the pitching, the last time Maine had a fully healthy season was in 2007, when he won 15 games with a 3.91 ERA. The Mets would sign up this second for those numbers. Without a real #2, Maine seems the most likely to be able to fill that spot. I considered Mike Pelfrey instead, as he has the stuff (if not quite the fortitude) to be a top of the rotation starter, but Maine has already done it. The problem is, that he HASN’T been healthy the last two years and it’s a bit of a stretch to imagine he’ll be 100% all year. But if he is, and Reyes is healthy, the Mets are going to surprise a lot of people expecting them to come in fourth this year.

BILLY WAGNER & TROY GLAUS, ATLANTA BRAVES: The other “tie” in my list here. The Braves are a hard team to figure. Their rotation is a strength, but the strange trade of Javier Vasquez for 4th outfielder (Melkey Cabrara) weakened what could have been a killer rotation and made them into just a solid one. They have enough arms to start, but lost two excellent arms in the bullpen. One of the new arms is NL East leapfrogger Billy Wagner, with his 3rd NL East team (the Mets and Phillies being the other ones) in the last six years . Wagner looked pretty good in a limited role with the Mets and Red Sox late in the 2009 season after have Tommy John surgery in 2008, but is he ready and able to handle a full season workload as a closer again? He needs to be for the Braves to keep pace with the Phillies with that reworked bullpen they have. Also, offense isn’t quite the name of the game in Atlanta. All-Stars Chipper Jones and Brian McCann are the big bats for this team with Nate McLouth adding some firepower, but considering Jones’ age and injury history the Braves need someone else to step it up. Bringing in Veteran slugger Troy Glaus is a risk because of his injury history. Glaus barely played in 2009 hitting .179 with no home runs and 2 RBI. However in 2008, Glaus hit .270 with 27 hrs and 90 rbi for the Cardinals. If the Braves can get 515 st bats from him, a .265/24/85 season is not out of the question and would go a long way towards balancing out that lineup.

YOVANI GALLARDO, MILWAUKEE BREWERS: The Brewers are a team that are on the edge between contender and also-ran. They have a good club but with some holes and no more so than in their starting rotation. Like the Rangers, the Brewers need someone to step up and claim the Ace’s job and no one is in a better position to do it than Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo had a good 2009 winning 13 games with a 3.73 ERA and 204 strike outs. This year he needs to step it up more and strive for a 17/18 win season and extend the flashes of brillance he’s shown from time to time. Having a stopper in the rotation keeps teams from going into long losing streaks and Gallardo needs to be that stopper.

BRANDON WEBB, ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS: The NL West is going to be a divsion that is totally up for grabs and to me, the key for Arizona to be in that mnd erase memories of a lousy 2009 is the rreturn of Brandon Webb. Arizona is one of those rare teams that has basically two #1 pitchers. Dan Haren is an Ace himself, and having a 1/2 punch with Webb gives the Diamondbacks a serious pitching advantage over anyone in that division. If Webb is healthy, he is fantastic… a guy on par with Johan Santana and Roy Holliday. With him, Arizona goes from a decent team to a strong team. They need 35 starts from him to storm to the top of a strange, strange division.

Biggest question marks: Mets

Yeah I know, the Mets have a LOT of question marks. However instead of this being a sixteen page post, let’s keep it to the largest ones, shall we?

I’m going to limit this to five (with a bonus one!). I’ll do the Yankees next.

1. Can this team win with this starting rotation?
Well… yeah. It can. Is it likely? I guess that is a harder question. Listen, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine and Oliver Perez have ALL had good seasons in the last few years. If the Mets get the 2008 Pelfrey and the 2007 Perez and Maine then the Mets starting rotation suddenly looks pretty strong. However the odds of all three doing that aren’t the best. The one I have the most faith in is Pelfrey. I think he is a very legit starting pitcher and can rise to the top and be a solid #2… but the defense needs to improve behind him and he needs to have his head on a little straighter. Perez is an enigma. He’s been almost lights out against teams like the Braves, Phillies and Yankees for most of his Mets career and fairly terrible against the Pirates, Marlins, Nationals of the world. The guy makes no sense. Odds are, without an addition to the rotation via trade at some point in the season, the team’s starting pitching will be a weakness.

2. Will the offense be ok without Beltran for the first month of the season?
If we’re only talking a month into the season then I think the offense is ok, that is if everyone else is healthy. If we’re talking longer (like two to three months or more) then, no… the offense will need a more solid link in the chain than an Angel Pagan/Gary Matthews Jr. platoon. Listen, Pagan can hit. He’s not going to give you power, but the guy CAN get on base and create some extra base opportunities out there. A month of him would be ok (with the occasional Matthews afront I suppose) as long as the other players are pulling their weight. However, Pagan is a very solid and useful #4 outfielder overall at this point in his career. From what we have seen of him, he’s not going to be able to be a full time centerfielder for a full season. Too much time out there will expose him. In other words, Mets fans need to pray that Beltran is back in May.

3. Is Reyes healthy enough to become the force he needs to be?
Everything I have seen and read leads to to belive that YES, Reys will return and be REYES. This offense is dependant on Reyes being the MAN. He needs to get on base and cause total havoc on the basepaths. He can only do this if he is 100% healthy. I know many naysayers point to his early career injury history as a reason to feel he won’t get through the season healthy, but before last year’s debacle, Reyes had a number of healthy seasons in a row. He should be fine and with him the offense will greatly improve.

4. Who’s going to catch?
Well, from what it looks like it’s going to be a platoon of Omir Santos and Henry Blanco. Neither one will strike fear into opposing pitchers, with Santos being the better hitter of the two. Both are decent defensively, with Blanco being the better of the two. I myself would like to see them offer free agent Rod Barajas a one year $2 million dollar deal. The guy plays decent defense and has some real pop. However, suddenly it seems the Mets are done spending. Count on the Santos/Blanco platoon being it for the year making the position neither a plus or minus… just being about average.

5. Will Omar and Jerry make it through the season?
My first thought is to say no to both… but then upon reflection it really comes down to this: Will the Mets contend? If this teams starts off 13-25 then yeah I think both are gone and rather quickly. However, if the team fights to a record around 17-17, 18-16 or even a 16-18 start with Beltran on the way back and positive signs like close games and no little mistakes that drove us all crazy last year (not stepping on third base anyone?) then they’ll get to the all-star break. If the team is within five games of a playoff spot, then they’re likely ok for the year unless they fall completely apart in late July (like losing 13 out of 15). All in all, if the team contends it will be hard to dismiss the GM and manager. I do believe that short of a playoff spot they’re both likely gone at the end of the season however. The fear here is that the NL has a shaky year and the Mets manage to blunder their way into a wild card spot and both Omar and Jerry get three year extentions.

BONUS QUESTION: So, will they contend or what?
Questionable starting rotation spots #2-5, your best player on the DL for at least a month to start the season, a lot of important players returning from injury, your GM and manager on the hot seat before the season even starts, an organization seemingly in chaos… how in God’s name CAN this team contend? Well… believe it or not. They can. Consider this: They have one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, a top five player at three positions (that would be Wright, Reyes and Beltran… with a top ten player at a 4th positon in Bay), a pretty decent offense and a top notch closer. Plus, the Mets often seem to traditionally do better when they are NOT favorites. This team is NOT as good as the Phillies. They don’t pitch as well as the Braves. They don’t seem as brash or confident as the Marlins. But you know… who in the NL outside of the Phillies is really a powerhouse? The Cardinals? The Dodgers? Nope. There is going to be a lot of scrambling for that wildcard spot, mark my words. A playoff spot is not out of the question for the Mets, abeit it’s not likely either… but this is a team that should be able to fight to about 83 wins and a few bounces their way that 83 could be 86 or 87. With a trade for someone like Broson Arroyo that number might be close enough to put the wild card in their sights. Hey, you never know.