Mets rotation might be a little better than people think

Looking at the (expected) starting rotation for the Mets might bring a wince or sad head-shake. The concensis is that the Mets have the worst rotation in the NL East. I'm not here to try and convince you otherwise. However I do want to try and show how the rotation isn't exactly a disaster, like I'm constantly reading this offseason, either.

At first glance, here is your likely starting five:
1. Johan Santana
2. R. A. Dickey
3. Jon Niese
4. Mike Pelfry
5. Dillon Gee

Considering Santana missed the entire 2011 Season and is not expected to be the pitcher he was before his shoulder surgery then this rotation won't make anyone sweat too much. You have no-one that would be considered a "stopper", but the idea that the Mets rotation is BAD is incorrect.

You don't know what you will get from Santana, but you might be looking at the type of pitcher David Cone became after he was unable to blow fastballs past hitters in the latter part of his career. Many have said that 70% of Johan Santana is still going to be be better than a large chunk of other pitchers.

R. A. Dickey has had two straight solid seasons. His breakout 2010 was followed up with a nice 2011 where he had career bests in starts, ininngs and strike outs. His 3.28 ERA was 12th best in the NL. He keeps the Mets in games he pitches and his ERA over the last two seasons is 3.08.

Jonathan Niese has been solid the last two years when healthy and has a lot of upside that could see him in this rotation for a long time, even when the young promising arms of Harvey and Wheeler get to town. He's a craft lefty who throws in the 90s, strikes out hitters and doesn't walk many, while getting a nice amount of groundballs. With a good defense behind him it's not out of the question for Niese to have a breakout 2012.

Mike Pelfry is an enigma. His last four seasons he has teetered back and forth between strong and infurating. In 2008 he went 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA. He had a great second half that year and 2009 looked promising, however he stumbled with a 10-12 record and a rough 5.03 ERA. Then in 2010 he bounced right back and had a great season in which he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA and at one point in June and July was without doubt the Mets best pitcher. Then in 2011 he dropped back again going 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA. At times he's dominating and other times he's maddening. This really is the "now or never" year for him I think. Which Pelfrey will the Mets get? If it's the 2008 or 2010 model He's a potenial #2. If it's the 2009 or 2011 model he's at best a #4 and likely more a #5.

Dillon Gee had a solid start to his rookie season, but faded in the last third of the season. He went 13-6 with a 4.43 ERA but at the end of June was 8-1 with a 3.32 ERA and at the end of July was 10-3 with a 3.69 ERA. He had a rough Sept but showed a lot of promise and poise. He had 114 strike-outs in 160.2 innings but did walk 71. If he can cut those walks down his upside can be high.

The entire NL East has a lot of quality pitching in it. The Mets may not be at the top, but this notion their rotation is terrible makes no sense.

Summing up the last three days

So each time I thought i knew what I was going to write about here, something else popped up. It's been quite a whirlwind last few days and instead of trying to overload about one particular thing or the other, let's just tackle it all head on... shall we?

ON THE REYES DEAL: Ok, plain and simple? This is a rough blow to the Mets and their fans. Looking at what the Marlins got him for (6 years, $106 million with a 7th option year that would be worth $22 million riding with a $5 million buyout which makes it a guarentee of $111 million) it's kind of hard to imagine the Mets allowed him to go when they were fairly close in a five year $85 million range. Frankly, the fact the Mets were unable (not unwilling, which they will say they were also) to match that offer or come fairly close enough to matter to Reyes is frightening. They are a New York team with a huge fanbase in a still mostly new stadium in a tremendous market. The fact this franchise is unable to give an extra year and $20 million to their BEST player to keep him is unacceptable. Yes, I agree he is a health risk, but the fact is this: over his career, when Reyes has been healthy and scored runs, the Mets winning percentage was HIGH. And to allow him to go to a HATED division rival? Unreal. Reyes saying the Mets never made an offer is kind of untrue, since his agents knew exactly what the Mets parameters were, but yeah, they could have showed him a little love and at least tried to dine him a little to let him know how important he was to the franchise. The freakin Marlins called Reyes EVERYDAY. The Mets had little contact. You have to know your own players and anyone who didn;t realize this would be a factor to Reyes dropped the ball. From what Sandy Aldersen has sadi, the mets and Reyes' sgents actually had a good conversation ojn Friday night and was positive enough to spur the Marlins to add a year and another $22 million to their offerand after that the Mets didn't even get the chance to counter since the Marlin's gave a take-it-or-leave-it to the Reyes camp. Well, they took it. Nice job there Sandy.

ON THE RAUCH SIGNING: It's not terrible, but it's not great either. Yes Jon Rauch is a very servicible arm and maybe last year was more of a blip than the way he's heading, but he has an ERA of over 5.00 last year. It's a one year deal for $3.5 million so it's not bad, and odds are he's better than most of what they already had, but this is more of an "OK, let's wait and see" deal then a "WOW!" deal.

ON THE FRANCISCO SIGNING: I can honestly say that the only closer i wanted to see LESS than this was Cordero. Listen, I know this guy has a great arm and packs serious heat. But he lost his closers job TWICE in the last two seasons. The Blue Jays has 25 blown saves last year (which is where Francisco and Rauch both are coming from) and as good of an arm as he has, Francisco is also prone to erratic periods. If this was a one year, $4 or $5 million deal I would be more impressed and happy. It being a 2-yr, $12 million deal? Too much, in my opinion. As with Rauch, yes he improves the bullpen, but I'm going to have to wait and see how this turns out. My prediction? He starts the year as the closer and is NOT the closer when the season ends.

ON THE PAGAN FOR TORRES/RAMIREZ TRADE: I'm torn on this one. I was a big Angel Pagan fan. I know he had a rough 2011 and that there was a ton of reports his work ethic and baseball IQ was nil. I know there was a lot of unhappiness about the "dehydration" issues that took him out of a lot of games. I still liked him and thought he was a solid player. Torres and Pagan are very simular type of players. I know Torres has a much better rep as a hard worker and excellent clubhouse presence and he has much more pop. I also know Pagan is a few years younger and a much better overall hitter. Both have about 20 SB a year speed. The big cog here was getting Ramon Ramirez. Now HE is who I'm impressed with getting. In my opinion, he will be the Mets closer by mid-season and will be very solid in that role. He improves the bullpen a lot on his own, and with Rauch and francisco, yeah... the bullpen in twice as good, if not more, than last year, where the mets were pretty terrible for the most part.

ON THE POSSIBILITY OF TRADING WRIGHT: Listen, right now, the Mets have VERY little star power. They have Wright. They have Johan Santana. The have a budding possible star in Ike Davis. Aaaaaaaaaaand that's really it. The loss of Reyes changes things dramatically in people's eyes. I mean, Bay's star is so fallen I cannot see it ever rising even close to where it was five years ago. Daniel Murphy is a solid bat with a suspect glove that will be beloved by smart Mets' fans and mostly dismissed by anyone else. Lucas Duda is still no one and Dillion Gee and Jon Niese have a far way to go. So take Wright from this team, and exactly why are people going to come watch them? The attendance is bad. VERY bad. It will not get better if Wright goes. IT WILL GET WORSE.

ON REBUILDING: Yeah, at this point you have to say that is what the Mets are pretty much doing. Listen, unless they shock everyone and dive head first into the free agent market next year, the mets are likely to have a young team looking to be in contention around 2014. They have some serious arms in the minors that are likely at least a year and a half to two years away. They have some other very soild position players who could be ready in that time period as well. The problem is, the Mets have NOT said to their fanbase "We are in rebuilding mode" and without a real "direction" the fans have no idea what is going on. If the mets had kept Reyes, I do not think a rebuild tag would be placed on the team, but without him, you have to consider that the fact.

ON THE RUMORS THAT NIESE AND DAVIS ARE TRADE BAIT: I'm sure the Mets are doing due dilligance, and talking about everyone and everyone just to gauge the market and if someone offered something insane like a top five pitching prospect (a la them getting Zach Wheeler for Beltran this past summer) and a high position prospect for one of them I guess they would have to seriously make the move, but I cannot, just flat out cannot see them doing something like this. It makes no sense. Neither player makes any real money and both have shown some serious talent so far. Many people (myself included) feel Davis is a serious .290, 30/35, 105 RBI guy with a great glove. Many people (myself included) see Niese as a VERY solid, higher end #3 starter... maybe even a lower end #2 down the line. Both have showne they can handle New York. Trading either would only make the fans think the team has flat out lost it. Gain, if they get bowled over, I can justify it. Otherwise, it makes little to no sense.

It's hard to be a Mets fan right now. The immediate future is not very bright and 2014 seems far away. I DO like the Mets brain trust of Alderson and crew and i do thik it's smart to build up the minors to the point you are more like the Rays than the Mets of 2009. But I have a fear that as long as the Wilpons own this team that there are some serious dark days ahead.

Who says the Mets couldn't sign Pujols?

You know, I'm getting a little tired of this.

Everyone and his brother has basically written the Mets off as a franchise at this point. The Madoff Ponzi scheme hit the Mets' principal owners hard. In that there is no doubt. There is a definite chance that it will effect the Mets organization.

A chance.

However, from everything I'm reading and hearing, pretty much the world is expecting the Mets to become the New York version of the Pittsburg Pirates. A team that will spend little and have few reasons to expect a winning future anytime soon.

This is just flat out ridiculous.

First off, even with the lack of big spending this offseason, the Mets will STILL be in the top part of payroll in the Major Leagues. The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Tigers and Cubs will have higher payrolls. That is pretty much it.

Second, the Mets may not have been SMART with money in the past, but they have not been cheap. They have often been in the mix for high profile players.

With the news that the St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols have not reached an agreement on a contact extention by this past Wednesday's deadline, many people are spectulating exactly what will happen to the best player in baseball.

I, myself, still think there is a better than decent chance he will return to the Cardinals. In my opinion, the second most likely place for him is actually the Chicago Cubs.

But I've heard time and time again how the Red Sox and Yankees, along with the Angels and Rangers are all possible landing spots. This despite both the Sox and Yankees having younger, big time, long term signed 1st basemen already (yes, I think the Adrian Gonzales signing is a for-gone conclusion). The same "experts" mention the Mets and in every case dismiss any possibility that the Mets would pursue, much less be able to sign Pojols. They use the Mets inability to spend, lack of history of spending, or lack of resources as the reasons.

I say bull$*!#.

Give me a break here. Without even much research I could come up with the bare bones of a scenerio where the Mets could look to sign Pujols and still be able to field a very competitive club for years to come.

Ok, follow me here. My number projections could likely be somewhat a little low, but in all honesty are more than in the ballpark.

The Mets have $60 million coming off the books after this season. That much is known and not under debate.

However, part of this goes away when you factor in the fact that Francisco Rodriguez can trigger a fourth year in his existing 3-year deal at $17.5 million if he finishes 55 games in 2011. I have no idea if that will happen or not. Somehow I get the idea that Sandy Alerson doesn't want to lay a closers $17.5 million. I do not know if that option remains if the Mets trade him in 2011. Last year was the first time since becoming a closer that K-Rod didn't finish 55 games. If he hadn't gotten into the altercation with his father-in-law he would have likely finished 55 games though. He pitched in 46 before messing up his thumb on August 14th.

So, ok... K-Rod could still be on the team and making $17.5 million. I will keep that in mind and paint the scenario as if he will be a Met in 2012.

The other notable free agents in 2012 for the Mets are Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, and Oliver Perez. There are other names coming off too, but I'll stick with the bigger ones for now.

Reyes is going to make $11 million in 2011. Let's say you resign Reyes and he gets a 6 year, $88 million dollar contract with a fairly easily obtainable (if healthy in years 5 and 6) 7th year option that would round out the whole contract at about $103 million. That is an average of roughly $14.7 million a year. Say it's $13.5 million in 2010 then the rest of the contract averages $14.9 a year. Would that be enough? Factoring in his health issues I think that is somewhere in the realm.

By letting Beltran ($18 million), Castillo ($6 million) and Perez ($12 million) go, you automatically have a $36 million set to play with for 2012. Yeah I know you're not looking to spend that all on one player and the Mets are supposedly looking to keep the payroll slightly on the south side of $140 million in 2012. No worry... you still can.

But wait! It's not REALLY $36 million free. Why? Reyes has a $2.5 million dollar raise in 2012. K-Rod gets a $3.5 raise (assuming he is still on the team). That is $31 million from your $60 million coming off the books. That leaves you actualy with $29 million left of that $60 coming off the books.

Still, no problem here.

Ok, we're going to look at this keeping not just 2012 in mind, but also 2013, 2014 and 2015 (if not 2016).

The Mets could offer Pujols a nine year, $247.5 million (averaging at $27.5 million a year).

The Reyes/Pujols/K-Rod contracts in 2012 would combine for $58.5 million. Then they could spin the very talented Ike Davis in a trade with another young pitching prospect (or more likley highly regarded Shortstop prospect Wilmer Flores since you now have another 6 years of Reyes at short anyway) for a front end of the rotation arm.

For 2012 (and going forward) you would look to have rookie Reese Havens as your 2nd baseman, Josh Thole as your catcher, Jon Neise and Dillion Gee in the rotation, Angel Pagan as your centerfielder and Lucas Duca, Fernando Martinez or Cory Vaughn in rightfield. Pagan, Thole, Neise and Gee all will have a few years of Major league experiance meaning your are really only looking at two rookies in the lineup. None of these players will make a lot of money (except possibly Pagan) for at least the first four to five years of Pujols' contract. Gee could actually find himself in the bullpen if Chris Young really works out or if Jenrry Mejia is able to crack the starting rotation.

Yes having two rookies in an everyday line up is a little scary, but look at the lineup:

Reyes
Pagan
Wright
Pujols
Bay
Havens
Duca, Martinez or Vaughn
Thole

You also have a possible Daniel Murphy in that mix with Havens at second.

Add in a healthy Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Niese Gee/Mejia/Young and whom ever you can spin Davis/Flores for (say a Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley type) and you have a pretty good team.

That team would be right about at the $140 million mark. Most likely a somewhat over depending on raises for other players and who leaves and who else comes on. It's viable though... add in the crackshot management team of Alderson, Riccardi and Co. and it's not something you can just dismiss as impossible.

Also if the Mets keep K-Rod's option from vesting or they manage to trade him, then there is more money on the table (with someone like Bobby Parnell as a possible replacement as closer).

And do you think for a second ticket sales wouldn't go through the roof? They would. Even if the Mets raise ticket prices as a result (which they liikely would).

Citifield would become a rockin place with buzz they haven't had since the Mets traded for Mike Piazza back in 1998.

Is it likely? I didn't say that. Are my numbers off? Most likely, but I would wager they aren't TOO far off.

But could it happen?

Yeah, it could. Never say never.

Mets Ink Chris Capuano

In what is likely to be one of the bigger moves (and yes the irony of that line is not lost on me) of the offseason for the Mets, they have signed Chris Capuano (formerly of the Milwalkee Brewers) to a one year $1.5 million dollar contract (with an additional $3 million in incentives).

Capuano won 18 games in 2005 and was an All-Star in 2006. He had tommy-john surgery after the 2007 season and missed the entire 2008 and 2009 seasons. He pitched decently in 2010 going 4-4 with a 3.95 ERA.

No one is expecting another 18 win season, but I think this is a good move with little risk and fairly decent rewards expectations. I see Capuano as either a long man out of the bullpen or the 5th starter (depending on if the Mets make any other expected moves for another starter.

This is the sort of thing I'm expecting the Mets to do this offseason. I think they'll get at least one or two more players in this same vein (ie: pitcher with past success coming off injury with something to prove). I'm fairly confident the Mets will wind up with Jeff Francis or Chris Young... both of who I'd be quite interested in. The thing is, I have faith in Mike Pelfrey and I think the Mets will be able to count on R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese to pitch fairly well. If they can get two servicable pitchers out of Dillion Gee, Capuano, and whom ever they sign next they can hopefully stay in contention until the return of Johan Santana, I know it's not ideal, but it's not out of the question either.

Going Overboard

I don’t think it’s a secret that I’m extremely unhappy with the Mets organization as a whole. The front office is run like it’s a Three Stooges film. The direction of the team seems to flux every other week. The man in charge, Jeff Wilpon, seems to think he’s a baseball guru when in reality his knowledge and decision making is hurting the team.

While reading MetsBlog.com yesterday, I saw a post by Michael Baron that discussed how SI.com columnist Jeff Pearlman seems to have the same thoughts as I do. In his column, Pearls of Wisdom, Jeff makes a number of points simular to ones I, and many others, have made about the state of the franchise.

However, Jeff goes on to basically destroy the team overall. He calls the Mets “the worst franchise in baseball” saying the team is so bad that calling them dreadful is “an insult to dread”. The big quote (which was highlighted by Mike on MetsBlog.com) from Jeff’s column reads:

“No, the 2010 Mets are simply worthless. They are a listless, heartless, wretched baseball team; an entertainment value sans entertainment, playing ugly within the confines of beautiful new Citi Field. When the biggest story of the year is Francisco Rodriguez, your star closer, beating up the grandfather of his kids, well, you’ve for problems.”

The other quote that jumped out at me was:

“Put simply, the Mets’ roster doesn’t work. Jose Reyes is one of the best shortstops in baseball, and David Wright can say the same at third. When healthy, Carlos Beltran is an elite center fielder. Ike Davis looks excellent at first base. Angel Pagan makes a superb fourth outfielder. Johan Santana still throws nasty stuff and, uh…. That’s about it. Save for Wright, the middle of the lineup is a wasteland. Castillo, once an All-Star with the Marlins, might be the least-motivated ballplayer in America. Maine hasn’t contributed anything good in 2 1/2 years. Perez is a head case. Jon Niese reminds one of Joe Price.”

Wow. And you guys thought *I* was harsh.

There’s a huge flaw in Jeff’s column here. He’s right about the way the Mets have played the last month and he’s right about the front office’s apparent inability to do anything about the albatross that is Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo. However, Jeff is so off-base about many other things that it’s almost like he was going over the top on purpose to spark debate and outrage.

First off, Jeff says “When the biggest story of the year is Francisco Rodriguez your star closer, beating up the grandfather of his kids, well, you’ve for problems.”

Really. THAT is the Mets biggest story of the year?

- Not Ike Davis and how well he’s performed as a rookie thrust into the limelight? Something that Jeff HIMSELF states in his column?
- Not R. A. Dickey and a long career finally met with success?
- Not Jon Niese putting together a solid season and showing he belongs? Oh wait… Jeff states he’s Joe Price.
- Not Angel Pagan’s rise from bench player to honest to goodness starter? Oh wait, that’s right… Jeff calls him a good “4th outfielder”.
Jeff ignores any of the above because ignoring those little tib-bits is needed for the sake of his article. He can’t talk about any of that, because he needs to show the train wreck only so his point is driven home.
Jeff goes on to say the Mets have no talent other than Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Santana. He says their roster “doesn’t work”.

Well, he IS right in that it’s not working right now, but a lineup starting with Reyes, Pagan, Wright, Beltran, Bay and Davis (as long as all are healthy) is a pretty good one. Betran’s still rusty after missing so much time the last year (although he’s showing serious signs of coming out of it), and Bay’s on the DL (and is having a terrible year regardless) but that lineup SHOULD work and it can.

Where Jeff really loses me in comment like Jon Niese is Joe Price. It was very nice of him to go digging into the baseball archives to find a below .500 pitcher who really no one else in Amercia would ever use as a description to Niese. I kind of fail to see the comparison. I’m sure Joe Price is glad to see his name in print… likely for the first time in a long time. I’m curious to know how he even came up with that comparison though. Admit it Jeff, you’ve been holding on to that name for a awhile… just itching to use it somewhere… right?
For those of you who do not know, Joe Price was a pitcher for the Reds, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles over a ten year career. He fluxuated between being a starter and a relief pitcher earlier in his career before become a spot starter but mostly a bullpen arm. He stared off with some sucess, going 7-3 with a 3.56 ERA for the Reds in 1980, faired well is a reliver in 1981 with a 6-1 record, 2.52 ERA and 4 saves, and then kind of settled into an average, non-descript career from that point on finishsing with a career record of 45-49 with a 3.65 ERA. He retired after the 1990 season. The only real comparison I can make between him and Niese is that they are both lefthanded.


Yes, the Mets overpaid for Jason Bay… pretty much like most teams have overpaid for larger name (and even lower name) free agents. There is no reason to think that Bay cannot bounce back from a horrible first season in Queens. Many players struggle in their first years in New York. His past makes me willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. He came onto the team with his frist real huge contract, which I’m sure he was compelled to live up to. There was no Carlos Beltran in the lineup. He’s hitting in Citifield which messes up some players (see David Wright in 2009). I think Bay will bounce back the way Wright bounced back this year.

Of course there’s been bad moves. Yeah, Castillo’s contact was two years too much and Perez was a mistake overall. I won’t argue there. They were mistakes the Mets should be willing to eat and get rid of, and they haven’t. Jeff is 100% correct there.

But Jeff would have to admit the Mets, as “dreadful” as they have been in the 2nd half, were pretty exciting and were anything but “listless” until the All-Star break. His description fits for their 2nd half play so far, but not the first. the 2010 Mets aren’t worthless. The Mets of the last month are. Maybe we should wait to see how they finish before the 2010 season is declared with that classification.

The problem with Jeff’s article is that he has some great and true points… but it’s hard to accept any of his logic when he overdoes it on such an extrame scale and says things that just aren’t really correct. It’s like he felt the need to “pad” his point with “facts” that really just don’t pan out.

To ignore some of the things I brought up above for the sake of making his column look right that the Mets are “the worst franchise in baseball” is pretty self serving and lazy. I think clubs like the Orioles, Pirates, Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, A’s, Royals and Nationals might fall into that conversation also.

Heck, the Yankees have made as many bad moves as the Mets have, but are willing to just WAY overspend to fix their mistakes. Something I agree the Mets should also be willing to do.

The Mets are run badly. I agree. Ownership needs someone to open their eyes and get little Jeffy Wilpon out of the driver’s seat. The organization needs a total change of ideology. Jeff’s column is right on the money when it comes to that, but he didn’t stop there. He had to go way too far and frankly, I feel it’s kind of embarrassing. Did Jeff even WATCH this team before July 14th?

The last month HAS been terrible from an offense standpoint, however the starting pitching has been stellar. That alone keeps them from being “worthless”. There are changes needed, and hopefully those changes will come… but this isn’t a terrible team and there is a lot of talent on it. It’s just run wrong. I think Jeff may be too biased or maybe too shortsighted to see that… I don’t know if that’s so, but it’s true.
Now Jeff might argue that his article clearly states that he compared the Mets to a big summer blockbuster movie. He used the films “Godzilla” and “A.I.” as his examples. He said:
“Nine years after A.I. rotted the brains of millions of Americans, the film has finally found its baseball brethren. Throughout the majors, there will always be Godzillas — teams like the Royals and Pirates and Nationals that offer customers low expectations and a product to match.”

Ok, the problem with that is that almost EVERYONE gave the Mets no chance to contend this year. No one did. Heck, the average position the team was picked to finish in was 4th. The fact the team was totally in the thick of it until basically August (and still technically are) was a total surprise to the baseball world. If Jeff claims otherwise, I’d like to see the column where he said in the preseason or in the first few weeks of the season where he thought they would contend. I can. I predicted the Mets would contend and the main reason *I’m* mad about the last month so much is because the Mets are basically a MUCH better team then how they’ve played the last month and I expect more from them.
So in the end, don’t insult my intelligence for the sake of looking like some heavy handed master mind of baseball. The entire column’s message is undermined by the fact that Jeff talks down to us like we can’t tell the difference between what is reality and what is just going way over the line. The problem with it is, that Jeff is guilty of the same thing he accuses the Mets off… not acknowledging the issue on their front doorstep. It’s one thing to point of the shortcomings of an organization. It’s quite another thing to ignore ANY positives so you can paint the picture of total bleakness just so you look justified in being 100% negative. I expect better from an SL.com columnist. Hopefully next time I’ll get it.

To read Jeff’s column in full, go to: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jeff_pearlman/08/16/pearlman.mets/index.html?eref=sihp

It’s Not the Starting Pitching

The Mets finished their current homestand last night with a listless 3-1 loss to the Phillies. They went 3-3 on this homestand. The way the starting pitchers pitched however, they should have gone 5-1, if not 6-0. The way the offense has hit, they were lucky to win 3 games.

The ERA for the starters in that six game series was an even 1.00. They got three shutouts in that span, and a game where the starter left after 7 inning with a 2-1 lead only to see the bullpen give it away. On Saturday, rookie Pat Misch went 6 innings giving up only 1 earned run. Last night, Mike Pelfrey pitched well, giving up 3 runs over 7 innings including one run scored when Carlos Beltran didn’t seem to get to a ball hit by Shane Victorino that might have been catchable.

The defense, so strong in the first half has been shakey at best and at times downright bad. The offense doesn’t even seem to exist. They scored more than two runs only once on this homestand (in Santana’s 4-0 complete game shutout on thursday) and actually won two games by a score of 1-0 (beating Cole Hamels both times with fantatic games from Santana and R. A. Dickey). They scored 1 run or less four times in the six games. They batted .184 over the homestand and have batted .213 as a team since the all-star break.

The Mets also managed to have a runner at third five times betwen Saturday and Sunday and didn’t get that runner in once.

David Wright is in an abysmal slump where he is batting just 4 for 40 with just three walks and 12 strikeouts in the month of August. Since the All-Star break, Wright has hit just .199 with 3 home runs and 12 RBI and has struck out 28 times in 99 at bats. Jose Reyes’ numbers are down from his torrid stretch and he’s batted .260 over the last two weeks. No one playing 2nd base has hit at all be it Luis Castillo or Rubin Tejada. Carlos Beltran seemed to be shaking off the rust but is still 19 for his last 88 with 1 homerun, 9 RBI and 19 strike outs.

At this point the team seems listless and uninspired. They get a few runs down and it seems almost like they give up because they don’t think they can rally. Last night, Kayle Kendrick was looking like Roy Halladay because the Met hitters seem to have no plate disipline and were looking badly fooled on pitches they should have smacked around.

As bad as the Mets have been, the pitching has been stellar. If it wasn’t for the starters things would be even worse than they are. The Mets have to hit and they’re headed for some serious embarrassment if the bats don’t wake up in Houston.

The Mets have viable ROY candidates

Going into the 2010 season, a lot of noise was made about the emergance of the Braves’ Jason Heyward, and the noise was well deserving. Heyward has proven himself to be ready for the majors for the most part and had a very impressive start to his major league career. After just the first week or two of the season, many figured he’d be a shoo-in for the National League 2010 Rookie of the Year.

Heyward had a rather rough June though, and since has wound up on the disabled list. This has opened up the field a bit more.

Of course, many people feel that the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg is the hot choice for that honor, but despite looking amazing since he’s come up, he still only has 2 wins, and is likely to only make anywhere from 11 to 12 more starts, meaning the odds of winning more than like 10 games isn’t very good. If he goes 11-1 with an ERA around 1.29 well I think it’ll be hard to ignore him, but if he goes say 8-3 with a 2.79 ERA for the season he’ll get some votes but not enough to win.

So where does that leave the NL group? Well, The Marlins’ Gaby Sanchez and The Cardinals’ Jamie Garcia are both excellent candidates, but the Mets have two players in Ike Davis and Jon Niese that will get some looks and if they continue to play at the level they are playing, and could start to gain some steam in the discussion.

First off, let’s take a look at the numbers for Davis and Heyward (who many considered a no-brainer for ROY honors). These numbers were as of Wednesday:

Heyward:
71 GAMES – 255 AT BATS – 41 RUNS – 64 HITS – 13 DOUBLES – 3 TRIPLES – 11 HOME RUNS – 45 RBI – 5 STOLEN BASES – 68 STRIKE OUTS – . 251 BATTING AVERAGE

Davis:
65 GAMES - 238 AT BATS - 37 RUNS – 62 HITS – 14 DOUBLES - 0 TRIPLES - 9 HOME RUNS - 34 RBI - 1 STOLEN BASES – 64 STRIKE OUTS – . 261 BATTING AVERAGE

Pretty simular numbers there. In fact, they’re almost exactly the same when you factor in the 13 odd at bat difference.

Niese is just as strong as someone like Jamie Garcia. Compare these stats:

Garcia:
7 WINS, 4 LOSSES, 2.27 ERA, 87.1 INNINGS PITCHED, 37 WALKS, 70 STRIKE OUTS, 1.260 WHIP, 0 COMPLETE GAMES

Niese:
5 WINS, 2 LOSSES, 3.84 ERA, 75.0 INNINGS PITCHED, 27 WALKS, 57 STRIKE OUTS, 1.453 WHIP, 1 COMPLETE GAME

Garcia has better stats, but Niese is close enough that depending on the 2nd half of the season those numbers can become better than Garcias.

The Mets season has been a pleasant surprise for many and a lot of people credit Davis for playing a huge part. He stabilzed the infield defense, has become the teams clean-up hitter, has made the needed adjustments as the season has gone on and has shown a tremendous amount of maturity. Niese has helped create a Mets’ starting rotation, that was considered a total mess, that is a major strength. Both have made some noise and both figure to have a shot in where the ROY vote goes at the end of the season.

There’s No Place Like Home…

Wow.

Incredible what a difference a week or so makes.

Now, do not get me wrong. I’m not suddenly calling the Mets “the team to beat”… but the way they have looked on this 8-1 homestand (and the series before it) has been nothing short of mind blowing.

Despite the struggles of John Maine and Oliver Perez, the team is getting lights out pitching… and thriving.

Does that mean all is perfect in MetLand though? No.

First off, I still feel Jerry Manuel is playing with fire by not letting his starters go a little further in games. The bullpen has been great, but overuse them and you’ll burn them out by July.

I also would really like to see him use the speed on the team more and run. With the speed on this team there should be three to five stolen base attempts and more hit and run situations every game.

Far be it from me to critize though. With this run the Mets are obviously in a good groove. The 20 inning win over the Cardinals was a plus. The promotion of Ike Davis has been a jolt of energy (one where I was wrong, since I was not sure Davis was ready for the Majors yet). The elevation of Mike Pelfrey’s game has been nothing short of miraculous. Hisanori Takahashi and Jonathan Niese have been a much needed shot in the arm for the pitching staff… looking just great in their appearances. Things are clicking all over.

But here come the Phillies.

This weekend will be disected as a huge weekend… but I don’t think it is. At least, not as much as it will be made out to be.

The Phillies are hurting right now. Losing seven out of their last ten, and seeing a number of their team hitting the DL… something they barely had to deal with last year. This is still a dangerous team that, frankly, is still better than the Mets right now… even if they are not playing like it. I think a series win is more important to the Mets than the Phillies at this point of the season. I don’t think either team should get too high or too low on what happens over the weekend series, since there is a lot of baseball to be played.

Winning this series would be great for the Mets though. I will say this… you cannot win a division championship in April… but you sure can lose one.

In any case, the Mets are playing like gamebusters. Here’s hoping it lasts. With a smart move here and there, and eventually getting Beltran back… I think it can. The Mets ARE a good team and CAN contend. They are not the best in the NL, but they are solid enough to play good baseball all summer. Let’s hope what we’re seeing now is closer to what the team is than the first 11 games or so of the season.

Showing some heart

Just a quick observation about the 8th and 9th inning tonight in the Mets/Rockies game. The Mets showed some grit late to force extra innings. Nice job. And if Francour keeps swinging the bat like they way he has so far he’s going to find himself in the cleanup spot very soon.

I liked what I saw from Niese tonight. His first start in the high mountains of Denver wasn’t as bad as the line looked. His only REAL mistake was the two out homerun ball. Overall he kept his composure and battled. He’s going to be a fairly solid starter. Not a #2 guy… but someone you can count on to keep you in a game.

UPDATE: Not sure what Jerry Manuel was thinking when he pinch ran Fernando Tatis for Mike Jacobs. That left only Henry Blanco to counter LHP Randy Flores and he was the last man on the bench. So Alex Cora stayed on to face Flores and lined a weak shot to 2nd base, leaving runners at 2nd and 3rd. Tatis would have been the perfect guy to bring up in that spot.

UPDATE #2: And just like that the game is over. Putting the rookie in there like that was not the best of ideas. I think this one may prove to be the first of the nails in Jerry’s coffin. We’ve already discussed Jenrry Mejia’s being pushed up too soon… and Coors was not the place to put him in position for his first major league loss. The team battled back tonight, but the result was the same. Not leaving a good feeling around the team here folks. I could see the Mets getting into panic mode quickly. It’s way too early to say a game is a must win, but… hey… tomorrow is a must win.

Nice Job by Niese

Quick note about the Mets game tonight… was going back and forth on it sporatically, but what I saw of Jonathan Niese was encouraging. One night after a uneven start by John Maine, the Mets needed a lift, and while they didn’t get a win (the offense was flat) they did get a fairly solid performance from the young pitcher.

Fernando Tatis and Angel Pagan got their first starts of the 2010 season , Tatis made a nice play in the 3rd, picking up an errent throw by David Wright with two on and two out, and Pagan had two hits.

The best news of the night was Niese though. In a season where every starter besides Johan Santana seems to be a question mark, having Niese step up and be a solid turn in the rotation would be a welcome sight.