Mets rotation might be a little better than people think

Looking at the (expected) starting rotation for the Mets might bring a wince or sad head-shake. The concensis is that the Mets have the worst rotation in the NL East. I'm not here to try and convince you otherwise. However I do want to try and show how the rotation isn't exactly a disaster, like I'm constantly reading this offseason, either.

At first glance, here is your likely starting five:
1. Johan Santana
2. R. A. Dickey
3. Jon Niese
4. Mike Pelfry
5. Dillon Gee

Considering Santana missed the entire 2011 Season and is not expected to be the pitcher he was before his shoulder surgery then this rotation won't make anyone sweat too much. You have no-one that would be considered a "stopper", but the idea that the Mets rotation is BAD is incorrect.

You don't know what you will get from Santana, but you might be looking at the type of pitcher David Cone became after he was unable to blow fastballs past hitters in the latter part of his career. Many have said that 70% of Johan Santana is still going to be be better than a large chunk of other pitchers.

R. A. Dickey has had two straight solid seasons. His breakout 2010 was followed up with a nice 2011 where he had career bests in starts, ininngs and strike outs. His 3.28 ERA was 12th best in the NL. He keeps the Mets in games he pitches and his ERA over the last two seasons is 3.08.

Jonathan Niese has been solid the last two years when healthy and has a lot of upside that could see him in this rotation for a long time, even when the young promising arms of Harvey and Wheeler get to town. He's a craft lefty who throws in the 90s, strikes out hitters and doesn't walk many, while getting a nice amount of groundballs. With a good defense behind him it's not out of the question for Niese to have a breakout 2012.

Mike Pelfry is an enigma. His last four seasons he has teetered back and forth between strong and infurating. In 2008 he went 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA. He had a great second half that year and 2009 looked promising, however he stumbled with a 10-12 record and a rough 5.03 ERA. Then in 2010 he bounced right back and had a great season in which he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA and at one point in June and July was without doubt the Mets best pitcher. Then in 2011 he dropped back again going 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA. At times he's dominating and other times he's maddening. This really is the "now or never" year for him I think. Which Pelfrey will the Mets get? If it's the 2008 or 2010 model He's a potenial #2. If it's the 2009 or 2011 model he's at best a #4 and likely more a #5.

Dillon Gee had a solid start to his rookie season, but faded in the last third of the season. He went 13-6 with a 4.43 ERA but at the end of June was 8-1 with a 3.32 ERA and at the end of July was 10-3 with a 3.69 ERA. He had a rough Sept but showed a lot of promise and poise. He had 114 strike-outs in 160.2 innings but did walk 71. If he can cut those walks down his upside can be high.

The entire NL East has a lot of quality pitching in it. The Mets may not be at the top, but this notion their rotation is terrible makes no sense.

Mets Ink Chris Capuano

In what is likely to be one of the bigger moves (and yes the irony of that line is not lost on me) of the offseason for the Mets, they have signed Chris Capuano (formerly of the Milwalkee Brewers) to a one year $1.5 million dollar contract (with an additional $3 million in incentives).

Capuano won 18 games in 2005 and was an All-Star in 2006. He had tommy-john surgery after the 2007 season and missed the entire 2008 and 2009 seasons. He pitched decently in 2010 going 4-4 with a 3.95 ERA.

No one is expecting another 18 win season, but I think this is a good move with little risk and fairly decent rewards expectations. I see Capuano as either a long man out of the bullpen or the 5th starter (depending on if the Mets make any other expected moves for another starter.

This is the sort of thing I'm expecting the Mets to do this offseason. I think they'll get at least one or two more players in this same vein (ie: pitcher with past success coming off injury with something to prove). I'm fairly confident the Mets will wind up with Jeff Francis or Chris Young... both of who I'd be quite interested in. The thing is, I have faith in Mike Pelfrey and I think the Mets will be able to count on R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese to pitch fairly well. If they can get two servicable pitchers out of Dillion Gee, Capuano, and whom ever they sign next they can hopefully stay in contention until the return of Johan Santana, I know it's not ideal, but it's not out of the question either.

No Second Guess This Time

Let me start off by saying that out of all the things about Jerry Manuel that drive me insane, his handling of the pitching staff is the most frustrating. It seems he rarely has a good grasp of what he’s doing with them .

Having said that, I’ve heard a LOT of Met fans and Media (Steve Phillips for one on WFAN this morning) say that Jerry Manuel blew it last night by allowing R. A. Dickey to pitch in the 9th inning. Dickey was nursing a 2-1 lead (after giving up a run in the 8th) and after getting the first out, gave up a tying homerun to Geoff Blum. Manuel then pulled Dickey and inserted Hisanori Takahasi, who got the final two outs in the inning.

So last night and this morning on sports talk shows, I’m hearing how that was a terrible move and Jerry blew the games, yada, yada, yada.

Which just goes to show how there are people that will second guess and complain no matter what.

Manuel leaving Dickey in the game last night was ABSOLUTELY the right move. This is the same guy who was brought back in the 9th inning of last Friday’s 1-0 win over the Phillies, which everyone seemed in favor of. Dickey is pitching EXTREMELY well. Why WOULDN’T he be left in? The Mets closer, K-Rod, is gone for the season. Dickey had given up only 1 run. There was no reason to pull him. I thought it was the best thing to do and the fact it didn;t work out doesn’t change that fact.

It’s Not the Starting Pitching

The Mets finished their current homestand last night with a listless 3-1 loss to the Phillies. They went 3-3 on this homestand. The way the starting pitchers pitched however, they should have gone 5-1, if not 6-0. The way the offense has hit, they were lucky to win 3 games.

The ERA for the starters in that six game series was an even 1.00. They got three shutouts in that span, and a game where the starter left after 7 inning with a 2-1 lead only to see the bullpen give it away. On Saturday, rookie Pat Misch went 6 innings giving up only 1 earned run. Last night, Mike Pelfrey pitched well, giving up 3 runs over 7 innings including one run scored when Carlos Beltran didn’t seem to get to a ball hit by Shane Victorino that might have been catchable.

The defense, so strong in the first half has been shakey at best and at times downright bad. The offense doesn’t even seem to exist. They scored more than two runs only once on this homestand (in Santana’s 4-0 complete game shutout on thursday) and actually won two games by a score of 1-0 (beating Cole Hamels both times with fantatic games from Santana and R. A. Dickey). They scored 1 run or less four times in the six games. They batted .184 over the homestand and have batted .213 as a team since the all-star break.

The Mets also managed to have a runner at third five times betwen Saturday and Sunday and didn’t get that runner in once.

David Wright is in an abysmal slump where he is batting just 4 for 40 with just three walks and 12 strikeouts in the month of August. Since the All-Star break, Wright has hit just .199 with 3 home runs and 12 RBI and has struck out 28 times in 99 at bats. Jose Reyes’ numbers are down from his torrid stretch and he’s batted .260 over the last two weeks. No one playing 2nd base has hit at all be it Luis Castillo or Rubin Tejada. Carlos Beltran seemed to be shaking off the rust but is still 19 for his last 88 with 1 homerun, 9 RBI and 19 strike outs.

At this point the team seems listless and uninspired. They get a few runs down and it seems almost like they give up because they don’t think they can rally. Last night, Kayle Kendrick was looking like Roy Halladay because the Met hitters seem to have no plate disipline and were looking badly fooled on pitches they should have smacked around.

As bad as the Mets have been, the pitching has been stellar. If it wasn’t for the starters things would be even worse than they are. The Mets have to hit and they’re headed for some serious embarrassment if the bats don’t wake up in Houston.

Crazy Friday Night and Team Updates

Between a rain delay that actually lasted one minute longer than the entire Mets/Phillies game, and a near no-hitter broken up by the opposing pitcher, the New York teams had themselves quite a night last night.

Dustin Moseley gave up a tie breaking solo homerun to Billy Butler just a minute or so before the rain came, for the second rain delay of the night. The Yanks had overcome a 3-0 deficet by scoring 3 times in the 3rd, but Butler’s shot was the end of the scoring for the night as the bullpens for both teams pitched well after the game resumed. The Yanks had a chance to tie it in the 9th with runners at 1st and 3rd, but Royals closer Joakim Soria was able to get out of the jam for the save.

Over in Queens, R.A. Dickey threw a gem of a game, giving up only one hit to opposing pitcher Cole Hamels in a 1-0 win. It was the 2nd straight complete game shut out for the Mets, who lead the Lajor Leagues with 18 shutouts on the season. The Phillies haven’t scored a run in Citifield this year as of yet and are 0-4 in Queens. The lack of offense continued with only back to back doubles from David Wright and Carlos Beltran accounting for the only run of the game. The Mets string of bad luck continued as an apparent home run by 1st baseman Mike Hessman was overruled as fan interferance after a lengthy video review delay. After viewing the replay a number of times myself, it’s hard to see if the fan touched the ball, but the ball really would have been a home run anyway. However, the umpires overturned the homerun and granted Hessman a triple. He would eventually be stranded there.

So the Mets have won two games in a row for the first time since June 23rd. It seems they’ve stumbled on a wnning formula: just keep the starter in the game.

In the last four games, the Mets starting pitchers have been brilliant. Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Johan Santana and R.A. Dickey have thrown wonderfully. The only belemish in those games what the bullpen blowing Neise’s 7 innings of one run ball on Wednesday.

The Yankees have had a little patch where they’ve stumbled a bit, but a huge comeback win against Texas the other night, and the Tampa Bay Rays inability to hit lately and take advantage of the Yanks mini struggles keep the Bronx Bombers two games ahead in the AL East.

Andy Pettite suffered a setback while pitching in a simulated game in Tampa and it seems that the veteran is nowhere near ready to return to the mound for the first time since July 19. Before suffering a left groin strain in the third inning of a start against the Rays last month at Yankee Stadium, Pettitte was have the best start of an impressive career with an 11-2 record and an ERA of 2.88. He was selected (rightfully so despite my problems with Yankee Skipper Joe Giradi’s Yankee bias in All-Star Team selections) for the all-star team this year and the Yanks will certainly need him if them make (which is pretty much expected, if not a given a this point in the season) the postseason.

Today, The Mets will try and continue their dominance of Philadelphia at Citifield, but it’s going to be a tall order as Rookie Pat Misch will face off against Phillie’s ace Roy Halladay with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 PM. The Yankees will look for revenge in Kansas City tonight when they send Phil Hughes to face off against RHP Sean O’Sullivan for a 7:10 start also.

The Maine Problem

Well, John Maine didn’t exactly go as deep into tonight’s game as you might have hoped… in fact, he was out one batter into the game (right after a five pitch walk to The National’s leadoff hitter Nyjer Morgan).

Maines warm-up session didn’t seem to go very well, with his velocity down and his mechanics different than normal. The Mets pitching coach, Dan Warthen didn’t like what he saw and Maine was pulled and replaced by left-hander Raul Valdes, who then went five innings, giving up only one run.

Already down two starting pitchers when Oliver Perez was demoted to the bullpen after another disasterous start and Jon Niese went on the DL, the Mets cannot afford another blow. Maine had been pitching fairly well in the few starts before his last one but the Mets are looking at a rotation of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Hisanori Takahashi, R. A. Dickey, and Valdez. Not exactly what was expected when the season started.

This is getting to be a critical part of the season here. The pitching is going to play a huge part.