GAME FIVE: Mets 6 - Reds 3 - The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

Looking to see if they could string together two wins in a row, The Mets sent Dillion Gee up against The Reds in the second game of this weekend series.

THE GOOD
DILLON GEE: Except for one (admittedly big) mistake on Opening Day, Gee pitched quite well. Today he had a similar outing with pretty much the same type of mistake, but overall it was a good job, keeping the Mets one bright spot in 2014 so far to be it's starting pitching. He's not Harvey, and in the long run I think Wheeler and Syndergaard will both be better, but Gee is a very bright spot for what should prove to be a very strong rotation.

CURTIS GRANDERSON: Despite the rough first couple of games at the plate, I haven't wavered in my thought that I'm quite glad Granderson is here. I don't expect 40+ home runs (heck, I don't expect much more than 28-30 overall), but he will provide protection in the lineup for Wright and will be a presence in the lineup that opposing pitchers will respect. His two-run shot in the 6th was a nice start.

THE BULLPEN: Two pitchers, (Rice and Torres), 1.2 innings, 3 Ks and NO RUNS. It's a Christmas Miracle.

IKE DAVIS: Two days after he lost the first base job to Lucas Duda, Davis makes himself relevant again with his ninth-inning walkoff grand slam. I'm a Davis supporter, so I hope he can fight his way back into everyday play. We shall see.

THE BAD
THE BATS: The final score is a little misleading because six runs makes it look like a healthy offensive day, but the first half of the game the Mets bats were as anemic as a Karen Carpenter luncheon. For the second day in a row, all scoring came via the long ball. The Mets are going to have to improve their situational hitting.

LUCAS DUDA: One day after his two-homer/four RBI day, Duda went 0-4 with three strike-outs. I told you yesterday that you shouldn't count on many days like Friday night for him.

THE CATCHING POSITION: Anthony Recker didn't hit any better than d'Arnaud has, and The Mets' catchers haven't had a hit all season.

THE UGLY
ERIC YOUNG JR.: Finally got a hit, but the Mets leadoff man is hitting a disturbing .063 for the season. That's not setting the table... that's not even in the kitchen

Summing up the last three days

So each time I thought i knew what I was going to write about here, something else popped up. It's been quite a whirlwind last few days and instead of trying to overload about one particular thing or the other, let's just tackle it all head on... shall we?

ON THE REYES DEAL: Ok, plain and simple? This is a rough blow to the Mets and their fans. Looking at what the Marlins got him for (6 years, $106 million with a 7th option year that would be worth $22 million riding with a $5 million buyout which makes it a guarentee of $111 million) it's kind of hard to imagine the Mets allowed him to go when they were fairly close in a five year $85 million range. Frankly, the fact the Mets were unable (not unwilling, which they will say they were also) to match that offer or come fairly close enough to matter to Reyes is frightening. They are a New York team with a huge fanbase in a still mostly new stadium in a tremendous market. The fact this franchise is unable to give an extra year and $20 million to their BEST player to keep him is unacceptable. Yes, I agree he is a health risk, but the fact is this: over his career, when Reyes has been healthy and scored runs, the Mets winning percentage was HIGH. And to allow him to go to a HATED division rival? Unreal. Reyes saying the Mets never made an offer is kind of untrue, since his agents knew exactly what the Mets parameters were, but yeah, they could have showed him a little love and at least tried to dine him a little to let him know how important he was to the franchise. The freakin Marlins called Reyes EVERYDAY. The Mets had little contact. You have to know your own players and anyone who didn;t realize this would be a factor to Reyes dropped the ball. From what Sandy Aldersen has sadi, the mets and Reyes' sgents actually had a good conversation ojn Friday night and was positive enough to spur the Marlins to add a year and another $22 million to their offerand after that the Mets didn't even get the chance to counter since the Marlin's gave a take-it-or-leave-it to the Reyes camp. Well, they took it. Nice job there Sandy.

ON THE RAUCH SIGNING: It's not terrible, but it's not great either. Yes Jon Rauch is a very servicible arm and maybe last year was more of a blip than the way he's heading, but he has an ERA of over 5.00 last year. It's a one year deal for $3.5 million so it's not bad, and odds are he's better than most of what they already had, but this is more of an "OK, let's wait and see" deal then a "WOW!" deal.

ON THE FRANCISCO SIGNING: I can honestly say that the only closer i wanted to see LESS than this was Cordero. Listen, I know this guy has a great arm and packs serious heat. But he lost his closers job TWICE in the last two seasons. The Blue Jays has 25 blown saves last year (which is where Francisco and Rauch both are coming from) and as good of an arm as he has, Francisco is also prone to erratic periods. If this was a one year, $4 or $5 million deal I would be more impressed and happy. It being a 2-yr, $12 million deal? Too much, in my opinion. As with Rauch, yes he improves the bullpen, but I'm going to have to wait and see how this turns out. My prediction? He starts the year as the closer and is NOT the closer when the season ends.

ON THE PAGAN FOR TORRES/RAMIREZ TRADE: I'm torn on this one. I was a big Angel Pagan fan. I know he had a rough 2011 and that there was a ton of reports his work ethic and baseball IQ was nil. I know there was a lot of unhappiness about the "dehydration" issues that took him out of a lot of games. I still liked him and thought he was a solid player. Torres and Pagan are very simular type of players. I know Torres has a much better rep as a hard worker and excellent clubhouse presence and he has much more pop. I also know Pagan is a few years younger and a much better overall hitter. Both have about 20 SB a year speed. The big cog here was getting Ramon Ramirez. Now HE is who I'm impressed with getting. In my opinion, he will be the Mets closer by mid-season and will be very solid in that role. He improves the bullpen a lot on his own, and with Rauch and francisco, yeah... the bullpen in twice as good, if not more, than last year, where the mets were pretty terrible for the most part.

ON THE POSSIBILITY OF TRADING WRIGHT: Listen, right now, the Mets have VERY little star power. They have Wright. They have Johan Santana. The have a budding possible star in Ike Davis. Aaaaaaaaaaand that's really it. The loss of Reyes changes things dramatically in people's eyes. I mean, Bay's star is so fallen I cannot see it ever rising even close to where it was five years ago. Daniel Murphy is a solid bat with a suspect glove that will be beloved by smart Mets' fans and mostly dismissed by anyone else. Lucas Duda is still no one and Dillion Gee and Jon Niese have a far way to go. So take Wright from this team, and exactly why are people going to come watch them? The attendance is bad. VERY bad. It will not get better if Wright goes. IT WILL GET WORSE.

ON REBUILDING: Yeah, at this point you have to say that is what the Mets are pretty much doing. Listen, unless they shock everyone and dive head first into the free agent market next year, the mets are likely to have a young team looking to be in contention around 2014. They have some serious arms in the minors that are likely at least a year and a half to two years away. They have some other very soild position players who could be ready in that time period as well. The problem is, the Mets have NOT said to their fanbase "We are in rebuilding mode" and without a real "direction" the fans have no idea what is going on. If the mets had kept Reyes, I do not think a rebuild tag would be placed on the team, but without him, you have to consider that the fact.

ON THE RUMORS THAT NIESE AND DAVIS ARE TRADE BAIT: I'm sure the Mets are doing due dilligance, and talking about everyone and everyone just to gauge the market and if someone offered something insane like a top five pitching prospect (a la them getting Zach Wheeler for Beltran this past summer) and a high position prospect for one of them I guess they would have to seriously make the move, but I cannot, just flat out cannot see them doing something like this. It makes no sense. Neither player makes any real money and both have shown some serious talent so far. Many people (myself included) feel Davis is a serious .290, 30/35, 105 RBI guy with a great glove. Many people (myself included) see Niese as a VERY solid, higher end #3 starter... maybe even a lower end #2 down the line. Both have showne they can handle New York. Trading either would only make the fans think the team has flat out lost it. Gain, if they get bowled over, I can justify it. Otherwise, it makes little to no sense.

It's hard to be a Mets fan right now. The immediate future is not very bright and 2014 seems far away. I DO like the Mets brain trust of Alderson and crew and i do thik it's smart to build up the minors to the point you are more like the Rays than the Mets of 2009. But I have a fear that as long as the Wilpons own this team that there are some serious dark days ahead.

Who says the Mets couldn't sign Pujols?

You know, I'm getting a little tired of this.

Everyone and his brother has basically written the Mets off as a franchise at this point. The Madoff Ponzi scheme hit the Mets' principal owners hard. In that there is no doubt. There is a definite chance that it will effect the Mets organization.

A chance.

However, from everything I'm reading and hearing, pretty much the world is expecting the Mets to become the New York version of the Pittsburg Pirates. A team that will spend little and have few reasons to expect a winning future anytime soon.

This is just flat out ridiculous.

First off, even with the lack of big spending this offseason, the Mets will STILL be in the top part of payroll in the Major Leagues. The Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Tigers and Cubs will have higher payrolls. That is pretty much it.

Second, the Mets may not have been SMART with money in the past, but they have not been cheap. They have often been in the mix for high profile players.

With the news that the St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols have not reached an agreement on a contact extention by this past Wednesday's deadline, many people are spectulating exactly what will happen to the best player in baseball.

I, myself, still think there is a better than decent chance he will return to the Cardinals. In my opinion, the second most likely place for him is actually the Chicago Cubs.

But I've heard time and time again how the Red Sox and Yankees, along with the Angels and Rangers are all possible landing spots. This despite both the Sox and Yankees having younger, big time, long term signed 1st basemen already (yes, I think the Adrian Gonzales signing is a for-gone conclusion). The same "experts" mention the Mets and in every case dismiss any possibility that the Mets would pursue, much less be able to sign Pojols. They use the Mets inability to spend, lack of history of spending, or lack of resources as the reasons.

I say bull$*!#.

Give me a break here. Without even much research I could come up with the bare bones of a scenerio where the Mets could look to sign Pujols and still be able to field a very competitive club for years to come.

Ok, follow me here. My number projections could likely be somewhat a little low, but in all honesty are more than in the ballpark.

The Mets have $60 million coming off the books after this season. That much is known and not under debate.

However, part of this goes away when you factor in the fact that Francisco Rodriguez can trigger a fourth year in his existing 3-year deal at $17.5 million if he finishes 55 games in 2011. I have no idea if that will happen or not. Somehow I get the idea that Sandy Alerson doesn't want to lay a closers $17.5 million. I do not know if that option remains if the Mets trade him in 2011. Last year was the first time since becoming a closer that K-Rod didn't finish 55 games. If he hadn't gotten into the altercation with his father-in-law he would have likely finished 55 games though. He pitched in 46 before messing up his thumb on August 14th.

So, ok... K-Rod could still be on the team and making $17.5 million. I will keep that in mind and paint the scenario as if he will be a Met in 2012.

The other notable free agents in 2012 for the Mets are Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, and Oliver Perez. There are other names coming off too, but I'll stick with the bigger ones for now.

Reyes is going to make $11 million in 2011. Let's say you resign Reyes and he gets a 6 year, $88 million dollar contract with a fairly easily obtainable (if healthy in years 5 and 6) 7th year option that would round out the whole contract at about $103 million. That is an average of roughly $14.7 million a year. Say it's $13.5 million in 2010 then the rest of the contract averages $14.9 a year. Would that be enough? Factoring in his health issues I think that is somewhere in the realm.

By letting Beltran ($18 million), Castillo ($6 million) and Perez ($12 million) go, you automatically have a $36 million set to play with for 2012. Yeah I know you're not looking to spend that all on one player and the Mets are supposedly looking to keep the payroll slightly on the south side of $140 million in 2012. No worry... you still can.

But wait! It's not REALLY $36 million free. Why? Reyes has a $2.5 million dollar raise in 2012. K-Rod gets a $3.5 raise (assuming he is still on the team). That is $31 million from your $60 million coming off the books. That leaves you actualy with $29 million left of that $60 coming off the books.

Still, no problem here.

Ok, we're going to look at this keeping not just 2012 in mind, but also 2013, 2014 and 2015 (if not 2016).

The Mets could offer Pujols a nine year, $247.5 million (averaging at $27.5 million a year).

The Reyes/Pujols/K-Rod contracts in 2012 would combine for $58.5 million. Then they could spin the very talented Ike Davis in a trade with another young pitching prospect (or more likley highly regarded Shortstop prospect Wilmer Flores since you now have another 6 years of Reyes at short anyway) for a front end of the rotation arm.

For 2012 (and going forward) you would look to have rookie Reese Havens as your 2nd baseman, Josh Thole as your catcher, Jon Neise and Dillion Gee in the rotation, Angel Pagan as your centerfielder and Lucas Duca, Fernando Martinez or Cory Vaughn in rightfield. Pagan, Thole, Neise and Gee all will have a few years of Major league experiance meaning your are really only looking at two rookies in the lineup. None of these players will make a lot of money (except possibly Pagan) for at least the first four to five years of Pujols' contract. Gee could actually find himself in the bullpen if Chris Young really works out or if Jenrry Mejia is able to crack the starting rotation.

Yes having two rookies in an everyday line up is a little scary, but look at the lineup:

Reyes
Pagan
Wright
Pujols
Bay
Havens
Duca, Martinez or Vaughn
Thole

You also have a possible Daniel Murphy in that mix with Havens at second.

Add in a healthy Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Niese Gee/Mejia/Young and whom ever you can spin Davis/Flores for (say a Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley type) and you have a pretty good team.

That team would be right about at the $140 million mark. Most likely a somewhat over depending on raises for other players and who leaves and who else comes on. It's viable though... add in the crackshot management team of Alderson, Riccardi and Co. and it's not something you can just dismiss as impossible.

Also if the Mets keep K-Rod's option from vesting or they manage to trade him, then there is more money on the table (with someone like Bobby Parnell as a possible replacement as closer).

And do you think for a second ticket sales wouldn't go through the roof? They would. Even if the Mets raise ticket prices as a result (which they liikely would).

Citifield would become a rockin place with buzz they haven't had since the Mets traded for Mike Piazza back in 1998.

Is it likely? I didn't say that. Are my numbers off? Most likely, but I would wager they aren't TOO far off.

But could it happen?

Yeah, it could. Never say never.

Going Overboard

I don’t think it’s a secret that I’m extremely unhappy with the Mets organization as a whole. The front office is run like it’s a Three Stooges film. The direction of the team seems to flux every other week. The man in charge, Jeff Wilpon, seems to think he’s a baseball guru when in reality his knowledge and decision making is hurting the team.

While reading MetsBlog.com yesterday, I saw a post by Michael Baron that discussed how SI.com columnist Jeff Pearlman seems to have the same thoughts as I do. In his column, Pearls of Wisdom, Jeff makes a number of points simular to ones I, and many others, have made about the state of the franchise.

However, Jeff goes on to basically destroy the team overall. He calls the Mets “the worst franchise in baseball” saying the team is so bad that calling them dreadful is “an insult to dread”. The big quote (which was highlighted by Mike on MetsBlog.com) from Jeff’s column reads:

“No, the 2010 Mets are simply worthless. They are a listless, heartless, wretched baseball team; an entertainment value sans entertainment, playing ugly within the confines of beautiful new Citi Field. When the biggest story of the year is Francisco Rodriguez, your star closer, beating up the grandfather of his kids, well, you’ve for problems.”

The other quote that jumped out at me was:

“Put simply, the Mets’ roster doesn’t work. Jose Reyes is one of the best shortstops in baseball, and David Wright can say the same at third. When healthy, Carlos Beltran is an elite center fielder. Ike Davis looks excellent at first base. Angel Pagan makes a superb fourth outfielder. Johan Santana still throws nasty stuff and, uh…. That’s about it. Save for Wright, the middle of the lineup is a wasteland. Castillo, once an All-Star with the Marlins, might be the least-motivated ballplayer in America. Maine hasn’t contributed anything good in 2 1/2 years. Perez is a head case. Jon Niese reminds one of Joe Price.”

Wow. And you guys thought *I* was harsh.

There’s a huge flaw in Jeff’s column here. He’s right about the way the Mets have played the last month and he’s right about the front office’s apparent inability to do anything about the albatross that is Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo. However, Jeff is so off-base about many other things that it’s almost like he was going over the top on purpose to spark debate and outrage.

First off, Jeff says “When the biggest story of the year is Francisco Rodriguez your star closer, beating up the grandfather of his kids, well, you’ve for problems.”

Really. THAT is the Mets biggest story of the year?

- Not Ike Davis and how well he’s performed as a rookie thrust into the limelight? Something that Jeff HIMSELF states in his column?
- Not R. A. Dickey and a long career finally met with success?
- Not Jon Niese putting together a solid season and showing he belongs? Oh wait… Jeff states he’s Joe Price.
- Not Angel Pagan’s rise from bench player to honest to goodness starter? Oh wait, that’s right… Jeff calls him a good “4th outfielder”.
Jeff ignores any of the above because ignoring those little tib-bits is needed for the sake of his article. He can’t talk about any of that, because he needs to show the train wreck only so his point is driven home.
Jeff goes on to say the Mets have no talent other than Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Santana. He says their roster “doesn’t work”.

Well, he IS right in that it’s not working right now, but a lineup starting with Reyes, Pagan, Wright, Beltran, Bay and Davis (as long as all are healthy) is a pretty good one. Betran’s still rusty after missing so much time the last year (although he’s showing serious signs of coming out of it), and Bay’s on the DL (and is having a terrible year regardless) but that lineup SHOULD work and it can.

Where Jeff really loses me in comment like Jon Niese is Joe Price. It was very nice of him to go digging into the baseball archives to find a below .500 pitcher who really no one else in Amercia would ever use as a description to Niese. I kind of fail to see the comparison. I’m sure Joe Price is glad to see his name in print… likely for the first time in a long time. I’m curious to know how he even came up with that comparison though. Admit it Jeff, you’ve been holding on to that name for a awhile… just itching to use it somewhere… right?
For those of you who do not know, Joe Price was a pitcher for the Reds, Giants, Red Sox and Orioles over a ten year career. He fluxuated between being a starter and a relief pitcher earlier in his career before become a spot starter but mostly a bullpen arm. He stared off with some sucess, going 7-3 with a 3.56 ERA for the Reds in 1980, faired well is a reliver in 1981 with a 6-1 record, 2.52 ERA and 4 saves, and then kind of settled into an average, non-descript career from that point on finishsing with a career record of 45-49 with a 3.65 ERA. He retired after the 1990 season. The only real comparison I can make between him and Niese is that they are both lefthanded.


Yes, the Mets overpaid for Jason Bay… pretty much like most teams have overpaid for larger name (and even lower name) free agents. There is no reason to think that Bay cannot bounce back from a horrible first season in Queens. Many players struggle in their first years in New York. His past makes me willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. He came onto the team with his frist real huge contract, which I’m sure he was compelled to live up to. There was no Carlos Beltran in the lineup. He’s hitting in Citifield which messes up some players (see David Wright in 2009). I think Bay will bounce back the way Wright bounced back this year.

Of course there’s been bad moves. Yeah, Castillo’s contact was two years too much and Perez was a mistake overall. I won’t argue there. They were mistakes the Mets should be willing to eat and get rid of, and they haven’t. Jeff is 100% correct there.

But Jeff would have to admit the Mets, as “dreadful” as they have been in the 2nd half, were pretty exciting and were anything but “listless” until the All-Star break. His description fits for their 2nd half play so far, but not the first. the 2010 Mets aren’t worthless. The Mets of the last month are. Maybe we should wait to see how they finish before the 2010 season is declared with that classification.

The problem with Jeff’s article is that he has some great and true points… but it’s hard to accept any of his logic when he overdoes it on such an extrame scale and says things that just aren’t really correct. It’s like he felt the need to “pad” his point with “facts” that really just don’t pan out.

To ignore some of the things I brought up above for the sake of making his column look right that the Mets are “the worst franchise in baseball” is pretty self serving and lazy. I think clubs like the Orioles, Pirates, Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, A’s, Royals and Nationals might fall into that conversation also.

Heck, the Yankees have made as many bad moves as the Mets have, but are willing to just WAY overspend to fix their mistakes. Something I agree the Mets should also be willing to do.

The Mets are run badly. I agree. Ownership needs someone to open their eyes and get little Jeffy Wilpon out of the driver’s seat. The organization needs a total change of ideology. Jeff’s column is right on the money when it comes to that, but he didn’t stop there. He had to go way too far and frankly, I feel it’s kind of embarrassing. Did Jeff even WATCH this team before July 14th?

The last month HAS been terrible from an offense standpoint, however the starting pitching has been stellar. That alone keeps them from being “worthless”. There are changes needed, and hopefully those changes will come… but this isn’t a terrible team and there is a lot of talent on it. It’s just run wrong. I think Jeff may be too biased or maybe too shortsighted to see that… I don’t know if that’s so, but it’s true.
Now Jeff might argue that his article clearly states that he compared the Mets to a big summer blockbuster movie. He used the films “Godzilla” and “A.I.” as his examples. He said:
“Nine years after A.I. rotted the brains of millions of Americans, the film has finally found its baseball brethren. Throughout the majors, there will always be Godzillas — teams like the Royals and Pirates and Nationals that offer customers low expectations and a product to match.”

Ok, the problem with that is that almost EVERYONE gave the Mets no chance to contend this year. No one did. Heck, the average position the team was picked to finish in was 4th. The fact the team was totally in the thick of it until basically August (and still technically are) was a total surprise to the baseball world. If Jeff claims otherwise, I’d like to see the column where he said in the preseason or in the first few weeks of the season where he thought they would contend. I can. I predicted the Mets would contend and the main reason *I’m* mad about the last month so much is because the Mets are basically a MUCH better team then how they’ve played the last month and I expect more from them.
So in the end, don’t insult my intelligence for the sake of looking like some heavy handed master mind of baseball. The entire column’s message is undermined by the fact that Jeff talks down to us like we can’t tell the difference between what is reality and what is just going way over the line. The problem with it is, that Jeff is guilty of the same thing he accuses the Mets off… not acknowledging the issue on their front doorstep. It’s one thing to point of the shortcomings of an organization. It’s quite another thing to ignore ANY positives so you can paint the picture of total bleakness just so you look justified in being 100% negative. I expect better from an SL.com columnist. Hopefully next time I’ll get it.

To read Jeff’s column in full, go to: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jeff_pearlman/08/16/pearlman.mets/index.html?eref=sihp

What Now?

Ok, so the Mets are techically still in the playoff hunt. They’re on the fringe, but still in it.

But not really.

The Mets are 8 1/2 games behind the Braves for the NL East lead and 7 1/2 games back in the wild card from the Giants (maybe soon to be 7 games back since the Giants are training the Cubs inthe 5th). There are four teams betwen them and the Giants for the Wild Card . It’s not going to be an easy task and it’s one the Mets look ill equiped to handle they way they’ve played since the all-star break.

They’ve made a few moves including releasing Alex Cora and bringing up youngsters Fernando Martienez and Ruben Tejada. What does that mean? Likely they want to see if these guys can play at this level because I get the feeling they both are auditioning for roles with the club in 2011.

Fred Wilpon seemingly gave GM Omar Minaya a vote of confidence for 2011 which shows once again the orgainzation doesn’t have it’s thumb on the pulse of reality.

Everyone and his brother is saying the Mets have no money to spend and will not be players in this offseason’s free agent market. If this is true, you are going to see a very young team next year.

Let’s assume that the Mets part ways with Jeff Francour, John Maine and Sean Green. Let’s also say they finally wake up and let go of Oliver Perez since there is no way he’ll ever be able to throw a meaningful pitch for the Mets ever again.

So right off the bat, seeing who are pretty much no doubts… the roster looks like this:

INFIELDERS
Jose Reyes
Luis Castillo
Ike Davis
David Wright
Josh Thole

OUTFIELDERS
Angel Pagan
Carlos Beltran
Jason Bay

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Jon Neise
R. A. Dickey

BULLPEN
Francisco Rodriguez
Hisanori Takahashi
Bobby Parnell

That’s 15 players.

Pedro Feliciano is a free agent. I think the Mets resign him since he’s been pretty much invaluble. So add him. Now, with only one year left on Castillo’s contract… can the Mets move him? Owed $6 million, if the Mets eat say… $4 million I’m sure a team might chance $2 million on a veteran 2nd baseman, but who knows. For now he stays on the roster. I can see the Mets keeping Tejada on the roster either in a platoon or as the starting second baseman if he performs well enough the rest of 2010.

With Feliciano and Tejada, that makes 17 on the roster now.

You need another catcher to likely platoon with Thole. Either Henry Blanco or Rob Barajas will likely be back. Let’s say it’s the better hitting and younger Barajas. Rounding out the bench you will likely see Chris Carter and Daniel Murphy playing utility/pinch hitter roles.

That’s 20 players.

You still need another starter, and three more bullpen arms or two more arms and one more hitter.

Odds are, Manny Acosta or Jenrry Mejia will be on the team in the bullpen. Let’s say it’s Acosta.

Three more spots now.

You may have names like Raul Valdes and Ryota Igarashi in the mix. Let’s say Valdes makes it.

Two spots.

Here is where the Mets will likely spend free agent money on.

Now if you told me those two spots would be Cliff Lee and say… Jason Werth… well… Then I would say the Mets are contenders next year.

They won’t be.

Hell, Cliff Lee alone would be a solid move and at least give he fans some hope.

I doubt we’ll see him even rumored.

I think there might be a chance for a Bronson Arroyo, a Ted Lilly or a Javy Vazquez. Let’s say it’s Arroyo for argument’s sake.

You’d have a club of:

INFIELDERS
Jose Reyes
Luis Castillo
Ike Davis
David Wright
Josh Thole
Rob Barajas
Ruben Tejada
Daniel Murphy

OUTFIELDERS
Angel Pagan
Carlos Beltran
Jason Bay
Chris Carter

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Jon Neise
R. A. Dickey
Bronson Arroyo

BULLPEN
Francisco Rodriguez
Pedro Feliciano
Hisanori Takahashi
Bobby Parnell
Raul Valdes
Manny Acosta

You’d have one spot left for either another outfielder or another bullpen arm. Fernando Martienez perhaps? A Vetern like an Austin Kerns?

Could that team compete?

If you knew you could count on Bay returning to form and Beltran having a great season in his walk year maybe it could.

I don’t know right now.

All I know is the Mets better pick a plan and stick with it. The management once again looks like a pack of unorganized fools.

What do you think? Could that team I listed above be contenders?

The Mets have viable ROY candidates

Going into the 2010 season, a lot of noise was made about the emergance of the Braves’ Jason Heyward, and the noise was well deserving. Heyward has proven himself to be ready for the majors for the most part and had a very impressive start to his major league career. After just the first week or two of the season, many figured he’d be a shoo-in for the National League 2010 Rookie of the Year.

Heyward had a rather rough June though, and since has wound up on the disabled list. This has opened up the field a bit more.

Of course, many people feel that the Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg is the hot choice for that honor, but despite looking amazing since he’s come up, he still only has 2 wins, and is likely to only make anywhere from 11 to 12 more starts, meaning the odds of winning more than like 10 games isn’t very good. If he goes 11-1 with an ERA around 1.29 well I think it’ll be hard to ignore him, but if he goes say 8-3 with a 2.79 ERA for the season he’ll get some votes but not enough to win.

So where does that leave the NL group? Well, The Marlins’ Gaby Sanchez and The Cardinals’ Jamie Garcia are both excellent candidates, but the Mets have two players in Ike Davis and Jon Niese that will get some looks and if they continue to play at the level they are playing, and could start to gain some steam in the discussion.

First off, let’s take a look at the numbers for Davis and Heyward (who many considered a no-brainer for ROY honors). These numbers were as of Wednesday:

Heyward:
71 GAMES – 255 AT BATS – 41 RUNS – 64 HITS – 13 DOUBLES – 3 TRIPLES – 11 HOME RUNS – 45 RBI – 5 STOLEN BASES – 68 STRIKE OUTS – . 251 BATTING AVERAGE

Davis:
65 GAMES - 238 AT BATS - 37 RUNS – 62 HITS – 14 DOUBLES - 0 TRIPLES - 9 HOME RUNS - 34 RBI - 1 STOLEN BASES – 64 STRIKE OUTS – . 261 BATTING AVERAGE

Pretty simular numbers there. In fact, they’re almost exactly the same when you factor in the 13 odd at bat difference.

Niese is just as strong as someone like Jamie Garcia. Compare these stats:

Garcia:
7 WINS, 4 LOSSES, 2.27 ERA, 87.1 INNINGS PITCHED, 37 WALKS, 70 STRIKE OUTS, 1.260 WHIP, 0 COMPLETE GAMES

Niese:
5 WINS, 2 LOSSES, 3.84 ERA, 75.0 INNINGS PITCHED, 27 WALKS, 57 STRIKE OUTS, 1.453 WHIP, 1 COMPLETE GAME

Garcia has better stats, but Niese is close enough that depending on the 2nd half of the season those numbers can become better than Garcias.

The Mets season has been a pleasant surprise for many and a lot of people credit Davis for playing a huge part. He stabilzed the infield defense, has become the teams clean-up hitter, has made the needed adjustments as the season has gone on and has shown a tremendous amount of maturity. Niese has helped create a Mets’ starting rotation, that was considered a total mess, that is a major strength. Both have made some noise and both figure to have a shot in where the ROY vote goes at the end of the season.

Terrible... just terrible

And so, once again, the Mets waste an amazing performance from Johan Santana, and continue to be unable to win even ONE series on the road. It’s the worst road start for the Mets since 1983.

Tonight was one missed oppertunity after another. K-Rod looked bad last night in getting a save and he was bad again tonight in blowing one.

No matter how great Santana and Mike Pelfrey pitch… no matter how well Jose Reyes, David Wright, Rod Barahas and Ike Davis hit… no matter how fast Carlos Beltran gets back from injury… no matter how great they play at home… if this team cannot win on the road at at LEAST a .500 mark, they will not go anywhere.

This game should have been over by the 7th inning. Instead it’s going to be a long flight home and a lot of “What If” talk.

And please, the next time Jerry Manual send up Gark Mathews Jr to hit, the man should be immediately fired. Will SOMEONE get this total hack off the team?

TEAM NOTES: Well, the other night aginast the Padres was a night to forget. 18 runs? Ouch. No one had it last night. Lost in the shuffle was the fact that Oliver Perez gave up 2 runs in 2.2 inning of work and LOWERED his ERA. The Mets scored 6 runs in the first six innings and usually that means things should be good, but yesterday it was basically two field goals to the Padres two touchdowns, 2 two-point conversions and a safety.

Speaking of Oliver Perez, the Mets have made yet ANOTHER plea to the bewildered lefty to accept being sent down to work on his obviously messed up mechanics. This time the Mets told Perez he could go right to Florida and work with Phil Regan instead of going to Buffalo. No word on what Perez has said yet, but word is that many of the Mets players are extremely unhappy with Perez and perhaps will look to peer pressure him into accepting it. Perez has been adament about staying with the club so far and hasn’t given any signs he will relent. At this point the team does need to draw a line in the sand.

The team continues to look very shakey on the road. It’s quite strange that they can look so good at home and look so bad as visitors. The bizarre split makes it very hard to really get a firm grasp on who this team really is. Thankfully Mike Pelfrey and his 7-1 record and 2.56 ERA takes the mound tonight to try and right the ship.

Looks like Luis Castillo is now a platoon player. With the problems he’s been having with his foot, Mets skipper Jerry Manuel has been sitting Castillo vs. right-handers. “I’m going to probably go that way until Luis starts moving a little bit better on that foot,” Manuel told reporters. Alex Cora has been getting the bulk of those starts that Castillo sits during, but keep an eye on Daniel Murphy who is getting work in the minors at 2nd base. Word is, that Murphy can become the Mets version of Mark DeRosa and be able to start at a number of positions.

Jonathan Niese should be off the DL and back with the Mets in a starting role come this upcoming Saturday against the Marlins. He’ll take his spot and send Fernando Nieve back to the bullpen.

Fans still seems to be totally down on David Wright. While I will agree his strikeout total is concerning, I think once again Mets fans are barking at nothing. Wright’s numbers are lower then you would think they should be (especially his .258 bating average) but his numbers aren’t as bad as you might think. Tell me, what does Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun, Mark Texeria and Adam Dunn all have in commen? ALL have less RBIs and SBs and all but Utley and Dunn has the same or less home runs totals than Wright. Before this weekends explosion, so did Albert Pujlos. Wright has 8 home runs, 35 RBI and 9 SBs. He has struggled at different times this season and the strike outs are worrisome, but it’s not like he’s a liability. Relax will ya?

There’s No Place Like Home…

Wow.

Incredible what a difference a week or so makes.

Now, do not get me wrong. I’m not suddenly calling the Mets “the team to beat”… but the way they have looked on this 8-1 homestand (and the series before it) has been nothing short of mind blowing.

Despite the struggles of John Maine and Oliver Perez, the team is getting lights out pitching… and thriving.

Does that mean all is perfect in MetLand though? No.

First off, I still feel Jerry Manuel is playing with fire by not letting his starters go a little further in games. The bullpen has been great, but overuse them and you’ll burn them out by July.

I also would really like to see him use the speed on the team more and run. With the speed on this team there should be three to five stolen base attempts and more hit and run situations every game.

Far be it from me to critize though. With this run the Mets are obviously in a good groove. The 20 inning win over the Cardinals was a plus. The promotion of Ike Davis has been a jolt of energy (one where I was wrong, since I was not sure Davis was ready for the Majors yet). The elevation of Mike Pelfrey’s game has been nothing short of miraculous. Hisanori Takahashi and Jonathan Niese have been a much needed shot in the arm for the pitching staff… looking just great in their appearances. Things are clicking all over.

But here come the Phillies.

This weekend will be disected as a huge weekend… but I don’t think it is. At least, not as much as it will be made out to be.

The Phillies are hurting right now. Losing seven out of their last ten, and seeing a number of their team hitting the DL… something they barely had to deal with last year. This is still a dangerous team that, frankly, is still better than the Mets right now… even if they are not playing like it. I think a series win is more important to the Mets than the Phillies at this point of the season. I don’t think either team should get too high or too low on what happens over the weekend series, since there is a lot of baseball to be played.

Winning this series would be great for the Mets though. I will say this… you cannot win a division championship in April… but you sure can lose one.

In any case, the Mets are playing like gamebusters. Here’s hoping it lasts. With a smart move here and there, and eventually getting Beltran back… I think it can. The Mets ARE a good team and CAN contend. They are not the best in the NL, but they are solid enough to play good baseball all summer. Let’s hope what we’re seeing now is closer to what the team is than the first 11 games or so of the season.

Good Bye Mike, Hello Ike

Well… that was quick.

As AC Wayne mentioned as a possibility below, Ike Davis is on his way to Citifield now that Mike Jacobs is on his way to unemployment. I like Jacobs, but he had to go. I wish him luck and hope he is able to catch on with someone somewhere… just as long as it isn’t with the Mets. His 2nd run here with the team was a mistake… one I’m glad to see resolved quickly rather than dragged out.

There’s going to be a lot of excitement with the promotion of Davis, and rightfully so. However if people are expecting him to come smashing out of the gate and rescue the Mets’ struggling offense, odds are you’re going to be disapointed.

Davis has a busload of talent. That much is certain. His glove and bat will be improvements over Jacobs in just about every way… that is certain also. But you have to temper your expectations. Could Davis start off strong and stay solid for the year? Sure he could. I remember when Robinson Cano was brought up (along with Chien-Ming Wang) by the Yankees in 2005 in what seemed like a desperation move by a Bombers team that was struggling and both had great rookie seasons. Cano especially stood out and finished second in the Rookie of the Year balloting. Davis could absolutely have the same success. However, forgive me if I’d prefer to allow for some serious growing pains first.

Davis had an excellent spring and made it look like he could belong, but anyone who knows baseball knows that you have to be careful on how much stock you take in spring training stats. This is not to say Davis doesn’t have what it takes. I think he does. I think in the end he’ll be fantastic. I just don’t know if the time is right. The Mets are off to a horrible start, despite their better play this weeknd, and at 4 – 8 to start the season they need to do something to make sure the seats in Citifield get filled. From a fan perspective, this was a smart move. it will sell tickets and give the fans, who feel like there is little to be excited about, something to cheer for.

With the addition of Davis, the Mets have an infield made up of young corner-stone players who are expected to carry the load for this team. Davis gets to join Jose Reyes and David Wright on the big stage… but is he ready? Only time will tell.

Glaring Issues in Queens

Well it’s only been a week (six games to be exact) and a lot of Mets fans are ready to jump off a bridge. After a 2-4 start and two straight losses to the lowly Nationals it’s hard to blame them, but it HAS only been a week so the need to panic should not have set in yet.

That is not to say the Mets don’t have a few glaring issues however. Right now I would say their inability to hit with runners in scoring postion is the largest. It’s something that the Mets always seem to have a problem with, no matter who is on the team. It’s bizarre.

To me though, one of the largest problems is first base. While Jacobs did hit a home run yesterday (a towering shot in the 8th), he was 2 for 16 before that and has basically been unreliable at the plate. It’s exactly as I feared… he’s all power and no substance. He’ll hit you home runs (maybe even as much as 30 to 35 in a full season) however he’ll do nothing else. This is beyond frustrating when you see Chris Carter doing well at AAA Buffalo after having a great spring. It’s not even like Jacobs is so good with the glove that you’ll take the lousy batting average and non-contact at-bats. The entire thing makes no sense.

It doesn’t help that Gary Mathews, after a good opening day has been as “unclutch” as you can be. He’s been up at least six times with two out and runners in scoring postion (four times yesterday alone) and hasn’t gotten one hit.

Overall the Mets are 10 for 53 with runners in scoring position. That’s a .189 batting average. That is 2nd worst in the NL (behind only Houston). Seeing that Jacobs and Matthews have been hitting mostly in the 4th, 5th and 6th positions you can see where a lot of that lost production is coming from.

It’s only been six games. Jacobs himself has only started in four. However, it’s already getting to be time for the Mets to see what they have in front of them and act. Release Jacobs (or send him down… trust me… he’ll clear waivers), bring up Carter and start playing Pagan in Center at least four or five times a week until Beltran returns.

The starting pitching hasn’t been amazing, but it hasn’t been downright horrible either. Niese and Pelfry both had good starts while Maine and Perez’s starts were lackluster but not disasters. The bullpen has been outstanding so far. Reyes has looked a little sluggish since his return but I would expect that to improve quickly.

Murphy has knee injury

Daniel Murphy left yesterday’s spring training game against the St. Louis Cardinals after a rundown between 3rd base and home plate ended with him suffering what was thought to be a knee sprain.

Bergan Record reporter Steve Popper reported that Murphy had an MRI today and that he “had his leg immobilized in a brace that locked it straight from almost ankle to hip.” He was diagnosed with a sprained right knee.

Murphy was seen leaving the clubhouse in street clothes and was walking with a serve limp.

The question becomes.. will the Mets call Ike Davis back orjust slide Mike Jacobs into the 1st baseman’s role?

I think if Murphy is only going to miss a week or two, it’ll be Jacobs at the postion… anything more and the Ike Davis fan club will get their wish sooner than expected.

I’m not too keen on Jacobs being the everyday 1st Baseman. If we’re talking lobger than 15 days, then the hell with it… I like Ike.

Who’s on First?

So with a few weeks of spring training yet, it seems that Mets’ manager Jerry Manuel is still stating that the first base position is an open competition. In that mix are encumbent Daniel Murphy, veteran Mike Jacobs and rookie Ike Davis.

As of yesterday, Murphy was hitting .148, 1 HR, 1 RBI and 6 Ks in 30 at-bats. Jacobs is hitting .200 with no home runs and 2 ks in 20 at-bats. Davis is hitting a whopping .500 with 2 HRs, 9 RBI and 7 Ks in 22 at-bats.

From listening to sports talk radio in New York the general consensus seems to be that people want Ike Davis’ run at first to start now.

I think that would likely be a mistake.

Listen, I’m as excited about Davis as anyone. I see him as a John Olerud type of player. Some decent power with excellent contact and on base percentage skills, strong defense and good baseball smarts.

However, I’d like to give him another year starting at AAA before thrusting him into the spotlight at Citifield.

First off, you cannot use the limited at bats all three players have compiled as a true basis for what they are going to do this season. Twenty to thirty at-bats is nothing.

Second, you have to understand something here. All three players are doing totally different things right now. Their approach isn’t on the same plane. Murphy is experimenting and looking to make some adjustments. 1st base is his job to lose. Jacobs is just trying to do what he can to make the team. He’s not even assured of a role at all. Davis is just looking to prove that he belongs. He’s looking to make people open their eyes to him and leave a lasting impression. He knows that odds are he’s heading to AAA but it looking to make that decision as hard to make as possible, and in that he has totally succeeded.

Frankly, I’d be shocked if Murphy wasn’t the starting 1st basemen when the team heads north. It seems that Jacobs, with his large power potential, has a leg up on the last bench spot. I’m not too sure I like that idea. I like Jacobs, but don’t feel he’d work out too well as a bat off the bench. I actually would prefer Frank Catalanotto or Chris Carter. I love the way Carter looks and was happy the Mets got him from the Red Sox in the Wagner trade last year. I think he could be a solid player.

In any case… temper those thoughts of Davis. I think he WILL be the starting 1st baseman for the Mets in 2011, but let’s not rush him too much, ok?