Mets rotation might be a little better than people think

Looking at the (expected) starting rotation for the Mets might bring a wince or sad head-shake. The concensis is that the Mets have the worst rotation in the NL East. I'm not here to try and convince you otherwise. However I do want to try and show how the rotation isn't exactly a disaster, like I'm constantly reading this offseason, either.

At first glance, here is your likely starting five:
1. Johan Santana
2. R. A. Dickey
3. Jon Niese
4. Mike Pelfry
5. Dillon Gee

Considering Santana missed the entire 2011 Season and is not expected to be the pitcher he was before his shoulder surgery then this rotation won't make anyone sweat too much. You have no-one that would be considered a "stopper", but the idea that the Mets rotation is BAD is incorrect.

You don't know what you will get from Santana, but you might be looking at the type of pitcher David Cone became after he was unable to blow fastballs past hitters in the latter part of his career. Many have said that 70% of Johan Santana is still going to be be better than a large chunk of other pitchers.

R. A. Dickey has had two straight solid seasons. His breakout 2010 was followed up with a nice 2011 where he had career bests in starts, ininngs and strike outs. His 3.28 ERA was 12th best in the NL. He keeps the Mets in games he pitches and his ERA over the last two seasons is 3.08.

Jonathan Niese has been solid the last two years when healthy and has a lot of upside that could see him in this rotation for a long time, even when the young promising arms of Harvey and Wheeler get to town. He's a craft lefty who throws in the 90s, strikes out hitters and doesn't walk many, while getting a nice amount of groundballs. With a good defense behind him it's not out of the question for Niese to have a breakout 2012.

Mike Pelfry is an enigma. His last four seasons he has teetered back and forth between strong and infurating. In 2008 he went 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA. He had a great second half that year and 2009 looked promising, however he stumbled with a 10-12 record and a rough 5.03 ERA. Then in 2010 he bounced right back and had a great season in which he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA and at one point in June and July was without doubt the Mets best pitcher. Then in 2011 he dropped back again going 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA. At times he's dominating and other times he's maddening. This really is the "now or never" year for him I think. Which Pelfrey will the Mets get? If it's the 2008 or 2010 model He's a potenial #2. If it's the 2009 or 2011 model he's at best a #4 and likely more a #5.

Dillon Gee had a solid start to his rookie season, but faded in the last third of the season. He went 13-6 with a 4.43 ERA but at the end of June was 8-1 with a 3.32 ERA and at the end of July was 10-3 with a 3.69 ERA. He had a rough Sept but showed a lot of promise and poise. He had 114 strike-outs in 160.2 innings but did walk 71. If he can cut those walks down his upside can be high.

The entire NL East has a lot of quality pitching in it. The Mets may not be at the top, but this notion their rotation is terrible makes no sense.

Mets Ink Chris Capuano

In what is likely to be one of the bigger moves (and yes the irony of that line is not lost on me) of the offseason for the Mets, they have signed Chris Capuano (formerly of the Milwalkee Brewers) to a one year $1.5 million dollar contract (with an additional $3 million in incentives).

Capuano won 18 games in 2005 and was an All-Star in 2006. He had tommy-john surgery after the 2007 season and missed the entire 2008 and 2009 seasons. He pitched decently in 2010 going 4-4 with a 3.95 ERA.

No one is expecting another 18 win season, but I think this is a good move with little risk and fairly decent rewards expectations. I see Capuano as either a long man out of the bullpen or the 5th starter (depending on if the Mets make any other expected moves for another starter.

This is the sort of thing I'm expecting the Mets to do this offseason. I think they'll get at least one or two more players in this same vein (ie: pitcher with past success coming off injury with something to prove). I'm fairly confident the Mets will wind up with Jeff Francis or Chris Young... both of who I'd be quite interested in. The thing is, I have faith in Mike Pelfrey and I think the Mets will be able to count on R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese to pitch fairly well. If they can get two servicable pitchers out of Dillion Gee, Capuano, and whom ever they sign next they can hopefully stay in contention until the return of Johan Santana, I know it's not ideal, but it's not out of the question either.

It’s Not the Starting Pitching

The Mets finished their current homestand last night with a listless 3-1 loss to the Phillies. They went 3-3 on this homestand. The way the starting pitchers pitched however, they should have gone 5-1, if not 6-0. The way the offense has hit, they were lucky to win 3 games.

The ERA for the starters in that six game series was an even 1.00. They got three shutouts in that span, and a game where the starter left after 7 inning with a 2-1 lead only to see the bullpen give it away. On Saturday, rookie Pat Misch went 6 innings giving up only 1 earned run. Last night, Mike Pelfrey pitched well, giving up 3 runs over 7 innings including one run scored when Carlos Beltran didn’t seem to get to a ball hit by Shane Victorino that might have been catchable.

The defense, so strong in the first half has been shakey at best and at times downright bad. The offense doesn’t even seem to exist. They scored more than two runs only once on this homestand (in Santana’s 4-0 complete game shutout on thursday) and actually won two games by a score of 1-0 (beating Cole Hamels both times with fantatic games from Santana and R. A. Dickey). They scored 1 run or less four times in the six games. They batted .184 over the homestand and have batted .213 as a team since the all-star break.

The Mets also managed to have a runner at third five times betwen Saturday and Sunday and didn’t get that runner in once.

David Wright is in an abysmal slump where he is batting just 4 for 40 with just three walks and 12 strikeouts in the month of August. Since the All-Star break, Wright has hit just .199 with 3 home runs and 12 RBI and has struck out 28 times in 99 at bats. Jose Reyes’ numbers are down from his torrid stretch and he’s batted .260 over the last two weeks. No one playing 2nd base has hit at all be it Luis Castillo or Rubin Tejada. Carlos Beltran seemed to be shaking off the rust but is still 19 for his last 88 with 1 homerun, 9 RBI and 19 strike outs.

At this point the team seems listless and uninspired. They get a few runs down and it seems almost like they give up because they don’t think they can rally. Last night, Kayle Kendrick was looking like Roy Halladay because the Met hitters seem to have no plate disipline and were looking badly fooled on pitches they should have smacked around.

As bad as the Mets have been, the pitching has been stellar. If it wasn’t for the starters things would be even worse than they are. The Mets have to hit and they’re headed for some serious embarrassment if the bats don’t wake up in Houston.

What Now?

Ok, so the Mets are techically still in the playoff hunt. They’re on the fringe, but still in it.

But not really.

The Mets are 8 1/2 games behind the Braves for the NL East lead and 7 1/2 games back in the wild card from the Giants (maybe soon to be 7 games back since the Giants are training the Cubs inthe 5th). There are four teams betwen them and the Giants for the Wild Card . It’s not going to be an easy task and it’s one the Mets look ill equiped to handle they way they’ve played since the all-star break.

They’ve made a few moves including releasing Alex Cora and bringing up youngsters Fernando Martienez and Ruben Tejada. What does that mean? Likely they want to see if these guys can play at this level because I get the feeling they both are auditioning for roles with the club in 2011.

Fred Wilpon seemingly gave GM Omar Minaya a vote of confidence for 2011 which shows once again the orgainzation doesn’t have it’s thumb on the pulse of reality.

Everyone and his brother is saying the Mets have no money to spend and will not be players in this offseason’s free agent market. If this is true, you are going to see a very young team next year.

Let’s assume that the Mets part ways with Jeff Francour, John Maine and Sean Green. Let’s also say they finally wake up and let go of Oliver Perez since there is no way he’ll ever be able to throw a meaningful pitch for the Mets ever again.

So right off the bat, seeing who are pretty much no doubts… the roster looks like this:

INFIELDERS
Jose Reyes
Luis Castillo
Ike Davis
David Wright
Josh Thole

OUTFIELDERS
Angel Pagan
Carlos Beltran
Jason Bay

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Jon Neise
R. A. Dickey

BULLPEN
Francisco Rodriguez
Hisanori Takahashi
Bobby Parnell

That’s 15 players.

Pedro Feliciano is a free agent. I think the Mets resign him since he’s been pretty much invaluble. So add him. Now, with only one year left on Castillo’s contract… can the Mets move him? Owed $6 million, if the Mets eat say… $4 million I’m sure a team might chance $2 million on a veteran 2nd baseman, but who knows. For now he stays on the roster. I can see the Mets keeping Tejada on the roster either in a platoon or as the starting second baseman if he performs well enough the rest of 2010.

With Feliciano and Tejada, that makes 17 on the roster now.

You need another catcher to likely platoon with Thole. Either Henry Blanco or Rob Barajas will likely be back. Let’s say it’s the better hitting and younger Barajas. Rounding out the bench you will likely see Chris Carter and Daniel Murphy playing utility/pinch hitter roles.

That’s 20 players.

You still need another starter, and three more bullpen arms or two more arms and one more hitter.

Odds are, Manny Acosta or Jenrry Mejia will be on the team in the bullpen. Let’s say it’s Acosta.

Three more spots now.

You may have names like Raul Valdes and Ryota Igarashi in the mix. Let’s say Valdes makes it.

Two spots.

Here is where the Mets will likely spend free agent money on.

Now if you told me those two spots would be Cliff Lee and say… Jason Werth… well… Then I would say the Mets are contenders next year.

They won’t be.

Hell, Cliff Lee alone would be a solid move and at least give he fans some hope.

I doubt we’ll see him even rumored.

I think there might be a chance for a Bronson Arroyo, a Ted Lilly or a Javy Vazquez. Let’s say it’s Arroyo for argument’s sake.

You’d have a club of:

INFIELDERS
Jose Reyes
Luis Castillo
Ike Davis
David Wright
Josh Thole
Rob Barajas
Ruben Tejada
Daniel Murphy

OUTFIELDERS
Angel Pagan
Carlos Beltran
Jason Bay
Chris Carter

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Jon Neise
R. A. Dickey
Bronson Arroyo

BULLPEN
Francisco Rodriguez
Pedro Feliciano
Hisanori Takahashi
Bobby Parnell
Raul Valdes
Manny Acosta

You’d have one spot left for either another outfielder or another bullpen arm. Fernando Martienez perhaps? A Vetern like an Austin Kerns?

Could that team compete?

If you knew you could count on Bay returning to form and Beltran having a great season in his walk year maybe it could.

I don’t know right now.

All I know is the Mets better pick a plan and stick with it. The management once again looks like a pack of unorganized fools.

What do you think? Could that team I listed above be contenders?

The Future Aces of New York Baseball

The Yankees and Mets both have a big time ace. Two fantastic talented pitchers that should be on most people’s top five list when talking about the best pitchers in MLB. Of course I’m talking about C.C. Sabathia and Johan Santana… but the two aces have competition for the top spot on their respective teams, from two young hot shot pitchers who are making bids to show just how fantastic they can be. Of course I’m now talking about Phil Hughes and Mike Pelfrey. Two youngsters who are showing their teams that they can hold their own with the big budget pitchers they follow in the rotation.

Hughes is 7-1 with a 2.54 ERA. Pelfrey is 8-1 with a 2.23 ERA. Both have pitched extremely well this season. Both are in the top ten in wins and ERA for their leagues. Pelfrey even stepped in and got a save in the Mets crazy 20 inning game against the Cardinals back in April.

Hughes is following up a great 2009 in which he was 8-3 with a 3.03 ERA (and 3 saves) pitching mostly in the bullpen and eventually settling into the set up role… one he excelled at. He did make seven starts at the beginning of the season going 3-2 with a 5.45 ERA in those starts but had a terrifc year once he established his role in the bullpen. While he did have a shakey playoff role, the Yankees saw Hughes as a starter and he was given a chance to win the 5th starter job in spring training… something he did rather easily. Hughes has gone 7 innings in six of his 11 starts and has struck out 68 batters in 69.2 inning this year, avergaing almost a strikeout per inning.

Pelfrey didn’t have a great 2009, but had an excellent 2008 in which he went 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA in which he started the season 2-6 but went 11-5 down the stretch (include three hard luck losses in which he went at least 7 innings and gave up 2 or less runs). Pelfrey has been almost unstoppable lately, going 4-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last five starts in which he has faced the Braves, Yankees, Phillies and Padres (the team with the best record in the NL) twice. He’s also struck out 27 while walking only 11 in the 37.2 innings of those five starts. In other words, it’s not like he’s only putting up numbers against the dregs of Major League Baseball. He’s also gone 7, 8 and 9 innings in his last three starts, saving the bullpen.

Ironically, Hughes one loss this year was to the Mets in a game he faced off against Pelfrey.

Hughes is just 23 years old (he’ll be 24 in just under two weeks) and Pelfrey turned 26 just before the season started. Both should be around for quite some time, so feel safe in buying those Hughes and Pelfrey jerseys now, because something makes me think they both will be at the top of their rotations for years to come.

Terrible... just terrible

And so, once again, the Mets waste an amazing performance from Johan Santana, and continue to be unable to win even ONE series on the road. It’s the worst road start for the Mets since 1983.

Tonight was one missed oppertunity after another. K-Rod looked bad last night in getting a save and he was bad again tonight in blowing one.

No matter how great Santana and Mike Pelfrey pitch… no matter how well Jose Reyes, David Wright, Rod Barahas and Ike Davis hit… no matter how fast Carlos Beltran gets back from injury… no matter how great they play at home… if this team cannot win on the road at at LEAST a .500 mark, they will not go anywhere.

This game should have been over by the 7th inning. Instead it’s going to be a long flight home and a lot of “What If” talk.

And please, the next time Jerry Manual send up Gark Mathews Jr to hit, the man should be immediately fired. Will SOMEONE get this total hack off the team?

TEAM NOTES: Well, the other night aginast the Padres was a night to forget. 18 runs? Ouch. No one had it last night. Lost in the shuffle was the fact that Oliver Perez gave up 2 runs in 2.2 inning of work and LOWERED his ERA. The Mets scored 6 runs in the first six innings and usually that means things should be good, but yesterday it was basically two field goals to the Padres two touchdowns, 2 two-point conversions and a safety.

Speaking of Oliver Perez, the Mets have made yet ANOTHER plea to the bewildered lefty to accept being sent down to work on his obviously messed up mechanics. This time the Mets told Perez he could go right to Florida and work with Phil Regan instead of going to Buffalo. No word on what Perez has said yet, but word is that many of the Mets players are extremely unhappy with Perez and perhaps will look to peer pressure him into accepting it. Perez has been adament about staying with the club so far and hasn’t given any signs he will relent. At this point the team does need to draw a line in the sand.

The team continues to look very shakey on the road. It’s quite strange that they can look so good at home and look so bad as visitors. The bizarre split makes it very hard to really get a firm grasp on who this team really is. Thankfully Mike Pelfrey and his 7-1 record and 2.56 ERA takes the mound tonight to try and right the ship.

Looks like Luis Castillo is now a platoon player. With the problems he’s been having with his foot, Mets skipper Jerry Manuel has been sitting Castillo vs. right-handers. “I’m going to probably go that way until Luis starts moving a little bit better on that foot,” Manuel told reporters. Alex Cora has been getting the bulk of those starts that Castillo sits during, but keep an eye on Daniel Murphy who is getting work in the minors at 2nd base. Word is, that Murphy can become the Mets version of Mark DeRosa and be able to start at a number of positions.

Jonathan Niese should be off the DL and back with the Mets in a starting role come this upcoming Saturday against the Marlins. He’ll take his spot and send Fernando Nieve back to the bullpen.

Fans still seems to be totally down on David Wright. While I will agree his strikeout total is concerning, I think once again Mets fans are barking at nothing. Wright’s numbers are lower then you would think they should be (especially his .258 bating average) but his numbers aren’t as bad as you might think. Tell me, what does Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun, Mark Texeria and Adam Dunn all have in commen? ALL have less RBIs and SBs and all but Utley and Dunn has the same or less home runs totals than Wright. Before this weekends explosion, so did Albert Pujlos. Wright has 8 home runs, 35 RBI and 9 SBs. He has struggled at different times this season and the strike outs are worrisome, but it’s not like he’s a liability. Relax will ya?

Keys to the Citi

Wow. What a difference a week makes.

Last week the Mets had managed splits in their two games series with the Braves and Nationals… after losing four straight to the Marlins. They had lost nine out of eleven and looked to be in a mess of trouble as they fell seven games behind the front running Phillies. A six game homestand with the Mighty Yankees and those hated Phillies loomed. Things looked like they were about to spiral out of control.

Seven days later, the Mets have won five straight and went 5-1 against two of the best teams in the majors. They didn’t just win… they looked GOOD. Contender good. Playing hard, looking solid, being smart, taking advantage of the other team’s mistakes good.

And as a result they have picked up five games in the standings and are just two games back.

More amazingly, the Mets didn’t give up a single run in the three game sweep of Philadelphia. Three straight shutouts of their hated rivals including seven masterful inning by The Big Pelf, Mike Pelfrey, who stands at 7-1 with a 2.54 ERA.

So… who is this team? The incredible contenders who play like winners at home, treating the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies like cannon fodder? Or the not-quite-loverable losers on the road who have battled, but lost constantly to the Marlins, Nationals, Rockies and Cardinals as visitors?

In any case, the team seems much better off with R. A. Dickey and Hisanori Takahashi in the starting rotation in place of Oliver Perez and John Maine. With Jose Reyes and Jason Bay seemingly out of early season slumps and consistant play from the regulars, the Mets have been playing inspired, having won six out of seven and looking to break the losing trend on the road with the Brewers this weekend.

It be a true contender, this team MUST win games on the road. Hopwever, for now, having the best home record in Major League Baseball and sending the defending NL Champs home with their tails between their legs is cause for some celebration and smiles.

Not the End of the World

So, the Mets blazed into Philadelphia on Friday and cut through the defending NL Champions like they were a minor league team. At the end of the game my 15 yr old son, Patrick, turned to me and said “They’re killing them.” I nodded but warned him: “Don’t get too excited. There is a lot of baseball to be played.” Pat agreed.

Two days and two rather large losses later, the Mets have returned to earth. The Phillies stormed back and made short work of Mike Pelfrey (who didn’t exactly get defensive help) and Johan Santana.

But I wouldn’t get too down Met fans. I would actually take a look to see how the Mets follow this series up. Do they bounce back and start a new streak? Do they stay down and return to the uninspiried play of the first 10 games? How does the team react? That, to me, is a hell of a lot more important than two games in early May.

The incredible streak the Mets were on did something important. It showed that the team is capable of some strong play and has the ability to contend. I don’t think any realistic baseball follower REALLY thought the Mets were suddenly better than the Phils, and this weekend showed the fortitude the defnding NL Champs have… however as long as you are prepared to temper your expectations, I think this Mets squad is one that will give us some very meaningful games this summer.

There was news that the Mets hope to have Carlos Beltran resuming baseball activities in the next week or so. Hopefully this is true. Beltran will be a nice lift to this team, as will the return of Daniel Murphy, who can replace Frank Catalanotto as the utility/pinch hitter. Beltran playing will return Angel Pagan to the fourth outfielder’s spot and hopefully bring about an end to the horrible Gary Matthews Jr. experiment. That alone will improve the team.

So don’t get down about two bad losses. Instead, hope that the Mets can bouce back and show you there is hope and something to look forward to in the upcoming weeks and into the summer months. This team has shown us something, so let’s be glad for that.

Big Pelf Does it Again

This is something Met fans could get used to.
Mike Pelfrey is making a serious case to be taken seriously here. He’s now 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA in three starts (plus 1 for 1 in save oppertunities which is wild considering he’s a starter).

This, just one day after Jonathan Niese pitched another strong outing and young phenom Ike Davis made his major league debut. Add in the fact that Jose Reyes went 4-5 with a triple, 2 RBIs, a run scored and a stolen base tonight and suddenly the Mets 2010 isn’t so bleak as it seemed a few days ago. Thanks Cubbies!!!

Ok, the past two days doesn’t mean the Mets are suddenly a 95 win club, but the pitching situation certainly is not the nightmare everyone has been worried about. Pelfrey and his shiny new split fingered fastball, and Niese’s solid composure on the mound has lessened the concern a little. Oliver Perez’s excellent outing against the Cardinals was a nice thing, but Ollie’s turned in big gems before. I’d like to see a little consistancy from him before I consider him fully on track. That leave John Maine as the guy dragging the rear.

Also, the Mets bullpen, considered a huge problem when the season started, leads the National League in ERA and is looking pretty damn solid so far, although Ryoto Igarashi pulled up lame afte trying to field a bunt in the 8th inning. He is scheduled to have an MRI in the morning and hopefully the injury bug hasn’t bitten again.

So, enjoy the Mets first offical winning streak of the season. Two in a row and three out of four. Also enjoy this thought… Pelfrey, Niese, Davis… even Reyes tonight… are all homegrown. When’s the last time a handfull of young homegrown players made the Met fans so happy?

It’s way too soon to start considering the Mets suddenly a strong contender, but the last few days have certainly been a step in the right direction.

Something just occured to me…

… while thinking about Mike Pelfrey’s start tonight. After saving Saturday’s insane 20 inning affair against the Cardinals, Pelfrey actually leads the Mets in Wins AND Saves.

Which also means that before last night’s win over the Cubs, he had played a prominent role in 75% of the Mets wins.

How bizarre is that?

Mets Get a Big Lift from Big Pelf

Nine games into the season (and with only three wins), the Mets have one of their starting pitchers with a 2-0 record, a 1.38 ERA, 10 K’s and only 4 walks in 13 innings. This pitcher has twice stopped losing streaks.

If that was the only info you had, odds are you would say “That has to be Johan Santana.”

Amazingly though, it’s not. May I introduce one of the few bright spots for the Mets so far in 2010: Mike Pelfrey.

While it’s way too early to start proclaiming Pelfrey to be the #2 starter the Mets have been needing, he’s taken some strides to return to the success he enjoyed in 2008 when he won 13 games with a 3.72 ERA and began to establish himself as a solid starting pitcher.

One of the reason for his early success seems to be the addition of a split-fingered fastball to his repertoire. Mixing up his pitches has served him well, as seen yesterday in seven shutout innings, where he didn’t allow a walk… a big change from his last appearance in Coors Field when he allowed six earned runs and walked five, lasting only four innings in what became a 10 – 9 loss.

As everyone has been saying all through the offseason and into the first nine games… the mets NEED someone to step it up and have a solid 2010 for them to have a prayer to complete. Pelfrey, who was the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft, has been a highly touted pitcher for a while and after a great second half in 2008 has been expected to be a front end of the rotation guy.

As I stated before in earlier posts, I think Pelfrey has the ability to be the guy they need at the front end of the rotation. He’s a strong power pitcher with good stuff. Pelfrey’s biggest problem however… is Pelfrey. He has shown on occasion to allow a bad start to get into his head (like when he spent an hour doing running sprints in the Coors Field parking lot after his last disasterous start mentioned above) and has had issues with balks when he gets over excited on the mound.

Despite that, I believe he has it in him to be what the Mets need. Only time will tell, but right now he has given the Mets a huge lift with his great start. if he can keep up this type of performance, coupled with Santana, the season looks less bleak already.

Biggest question marks: Mets

Yeah I know, the Mets have a LOT of question marks. However instead of this being a sixteen page post, let’s keep it to the largest ones, shall we?

I’m going to limit this to five (with a bonus one!). I’ll do the Yankees next.

1. Can this team win with this starting rotation?
Well… yeah. It can. Is it likely? I guess that is a harder question. Listen, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine and Oliver Perez have ALL had good seasons in the last few years. If the Mets get the 2008 Pelfrey and the 2007 Perez and Maine then the Mets starting rotation suddenly looks pretty strong. However the odds of all three doing that aren’t the best. The one I have the most faith in is Pelfrey. I think he is a very legit starting pitcher and can rise to the top and be a solid #2… but the defense needs to improve behind him and he needs to have his head on a little straighter. Perez is an enigma. He’s been almost lights out against teams like the Braves, Phillies and Yankees for most of his Mets career and fairly terrible against the Pirates, Marlins, Nationals of the world. The guy makes no sense. Odds are, without an addition to the rotation via trade at some point in the season, the team’s starting pitching will be a weakness.

2. Will the offense be ok without Beltran for the first month of the season?
If we’re only talking a month into the season then I think the offense is ok, that is if everyone else is healthy. If we’re talking longer (like two to three months or more) then, no… the offense will need a more solid link in the chain than an Angel Pagan/Gary Matthews Jr. platoon. Listen, Pagan can hit. He’s not going to give you power, but the guy CAN get on base and create some extra base opportunities out there. A month of him would be ok (with the occasional Matthews afront I suppose) as long as the other players are pulling their weight. However, Pagan is a very solid and useful #4 outfielder overall at this point in his career. From what we have seen of him, he’s not going to be able to be a full time centerfielder for a full season. Too much time out there will expose him. In other words, Mets fans need to pray that Beltran is back in May.

3. Is Reyes healthy enough to become the force he needs to be?
Everything I have seen and read leads to to belive that YES, Reys will return and be REYES. This offense is dependant on Reyes being the MAN. He needs to get on base and cause total havoc on the basepaths. He can only do this if he is 100% healthy. I know many naysayers point to his early career injury history as a reason to feel he won’t get through the season healthy, but before last year’s debacle, Reyes had a number of healthy seasons in a row. He should be fine and with him the offense will greatly improve.

4. Who’s going to catch?
Well, from what it looks like it’s going to be a platoon of Omir Santos and Henry Blanco. Neither one will strike fear into opposing pitchers, with Santos being the better hitter of the two. Both are decent defensively, with Blanco being the better of the two. I myself would like to see them offer free agent Rod Barajas a one year $2 million dollar deal. The guy plays decent defense and has some real pop. However, suddenly it seems the Mets are done spending. Count on the Santos/Blanco platoon being it for the year making the position neither a plus or minus… just being about average.

5. Will Omar and Jerry make it through the season?
My first thought is to say no to both… but then upon reflection it really comes down to this: Will the Mets contend? If this teams starts off 13-25 then yeah I think both are gone and rather quickly. However, if the team fights to a record around 17-17, 18-16 or even a 16-18 start with Beltran on the way back and positive signs like close games and no little mistakes that drove us all crazy last year (not stepping on third base anyone?) then they’ll get to the all-star break. If the team is within five games of a playoff spot, then they’re likely ok for the year unless they fall completely apart in late July (like losing 13 out of 15). All in all, if the team contends it will be hard to dismiss the GM and manager. I do believe that short of a playoff spot they’re both likely gone at the end of the season however. The fear here is that the NL has a shaky year and the Mets manage to blunder their way into a wild card spot and both Omar and Jerry get three year extentions.

BONUS QUESTION: So, will they contend or what?
Questionable starting rotation spots #2-5, your best player on the DL for at least a month to start the season, a lot of important players returning from injury, your GM and manager on the hot seat before the season even starts, an organization seemingly in chaos… how in God’s name CAN this team contend? Well… believe it or not. They can. Consider this: They have one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, a top five player at three positions (that would be Wright, Reyes and Beltran… with a top ten player at a 4th positon in Bay), a pretty decent offense and a top notch closer. Plus, the Mets often seem to traditionally do better when they are NOT favorites. This team is NOT as good as the Phillies. They don’t pitch as well as the Braves. They don’t seem as brash or confident as the Marlins. But you know… who in the NL outside of the Phillies is really a powerhouse? The Cardinals? The Dodgers? Nope. There is going to be a lot of scrambling for that wildcard spot, mark my words. A playoff spot is not out of the question for the Mets, abeit it’s not likely either… but this is a team that should be able to fight to about 83 wins and a few bounces their way that 83 could be 86 or 87. With a trade for someone like Broson Arroyo that number might be close enough to put the wild card in their sights. Hey, you never know.