Mets rotation might be a little better than people think

Looking at the (expected) starting rotation for the Mets might bring a wince or sad head-shake. The concensis is that the Mets have the worst rotation in the NL East. I'm not here to try and convince you otherwise. However I do want to try and show how the rotation isn't exactly a disaster, like I'm constantly reading this offseason, either.

At first glance, here is your likely starting five:
1. Johan Santana
2. R. A. Dickey
3. Jon Niese
4. Mike Pelfry
5. Dillon Gee

Considering Santana missed the entire 2011 Season and is not expected to be the pitcher he was before his shoulder surgery then this rotation won't make anyone sweat too much. You have no-one that would be considered a "stopper", but the idea that the Mets rotation is BAD is incorrect.

You don't know what you will get from Santana, but you might be looking at the type of pitcher David Cone became after he was unable to blow fastballs past hitters in the latter part of his career. Many have said that 70% of Johan Santana is still going to be be better than a large chunk of other pitchers.

R. A. Dickey has had two straight solid seasons. His breakout 2010 was followed up with a nice 2011 where he had career bests in starts, ininngs and strike outs. His 3.28 ERA was 12th best in the NL. He keeps the Mets in games he pitches and his ERA over the last two seasons is 3.08.

Jonathan Niese has been solid the last two years when healthy and has a lot of upside that could see him in this rotation for a long time, even when the young promising arms of Harvey and Wheeler get to town. He's a craft lefty who throws in the 90s, strikes out hitters and doesn't walk many, while getting a nice amount of groundballs. With a good defense behind him it's not out of the question for Niese to have a breakout 2012.

Mike Pelfry is an enigma. His last four seasons he has teetered back and forth between strong and infurating. In 2008 he went 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA. He had a great second half that year and 2009 looked promising, however he stumbled with a 10-12 record and a rough 5.03 ERA. Then in 2010 he bounced right back and had a great season in which he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA and at one point in June and July was without doubt the Mets best pitcher. Then in 2011 he dropped back again going 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA. At times he's dominating and other times he's maddening. This really is the "now or never" year for him I think. Which Pelfrey will the Mets get? If it's the 2008 or 2010 model He's a potenial #2. If it's the 2009 or 2011 model he's at best a #4 and likely more a #5.

Dillon Gee had a solid start to his rookie season, but faded in the last third of the season. He went 13-6 with a 4.43 ERA but at the end of June was 8-1 with a 3.32 ERA and at the end of July was 10-3 with a 3.69 ERA. He had a rough Sept but showed a lot of promise and poise. He had 114 strike-outs in 160.2 innings but did walk 71. If he can cut those walks down his upside can be high.

The entire NL East has a lot of quality pitching in it. The Mets may not be at the top, but this notion their rotation is terrible makes no sense.

It’s Not the Starting Pitching

The Mets finished their current homestand last night with a listless 3-1 loss to the Phillies. They went 3-3 on this homestand. The way the starting pitchers pitched however, they should have gone 5-1, if not 6-0. The way the offense has hit, they were lucky to win 3 games.

The ERA for the starters in that six game series was an even 1.00. They got three shutouts in that span, and a game where the starter left after 7 inning with a 2-1 lead only to see the bullpen give it away. On Saturday, rookie Pat Misch went 6 innings giving up only 1 earned run. Last night, Mike Pelfrey pitched well, giving up 3 runs over 7 innings including one run scored when Carlos Beltran didn’t seem to get to a ball hit by Shane Victorino that might have been catchable.

The defense, so strong in the first half has been shakey at best and at times downright bad. The offense doesn’t even seem to exist. They scored more than two runs only once on this homestand (in Santana’s 4-0 complete game shutout on thursday) and actually won two games by a score of 1-0 (beating Cole Hamels both times with fantatic games from Santana and R. A. Dickey). They scored 1 run or less four times in the six games. They batted .184 over the homestand and have batted .213 as a team since the all-star break.

The Mets also managed to have a runner at third five times betwen Saturday and Sunday and didn’t get that runner in once.

David Wright is in an abysmal slump where he is batting just 4 for 40 with just three walks and 12 strikeouts in the month of August. Since the All-Star break, Wright has hit just .199 with 3 home runs and 12 RBI and has struck out 28 times in 99 at bats. Jose Reyes’ numbers are down from his torrid stretch and he’s batted .260 over the last two weeks. No one playing 2nd base has hit at all be it Luis Castillo or Rubin Tejada. Carlos Beltran seemed to be shaking off the rust but is still 19 for his last 88 with 1 homerun, 9 RBI and 19 strike outs.

At this point the team seems listless and uninspired. They get a few runs down and it seems almost like they give up because they don’t think they can rally. Last night, Kayle Kendrick was looking like Roy Halladay because the Met hitters seem to have no plate disipline and were looking badly fooled on pitches they should have smacked around.

As bad as the Mets have been, the pitching has been stellar. If it wasn’t for the starters things would be even worse than they are. The Mets have to hit and they’re headed for some serious embarrassment if the bats don’t wake up in Houston.

Not What Anyone Had In Mind

The Mets needed a win last night, and getting a strong performance from their pitching staff was important. Well, Jon Niese did his part last night. Seven innings of 1 run ball was just what the Mets needed. Of course the 8th inning was a disaster, as the bullpen (most notably Bobby Parnell) allowed the first 7 batters of the inning reach base. Six would score. A 2-1 lead became a 7-2 deficit.

The Mets continue to find new and frustrating ways to lose. Time is running out very quickly. As I stated yesterday, there is no reason the Mets should not be able to beat a team with it’s starting all star 2nd baseman and 1st baseman on the DL, as well as their starting Centerfielder.

Of course, the Mets total inability to score runs is killing them. The team is hitting a combined .251 (24th in the Majors) and have scored 444 runs this season, which is 7th worst in the MLB.

Today’s match-up is Johan Santana (8-6, 3.20 ERA) and Cole Hamels (7-7, 3.56 ERA) . In all honesty… the Mets should have the advantage here… just like they had it last night.

At this point, I’d go into today’s game allowing Santana at least 125 pitches and lok to see if he can throw a complete game. The Mets need this in the worst way. Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t jeopardize his health for it, but the man doesn’t need to be brought out at 100 pitches like Jerry Manuel seems to think every pitcher does.

David Wright needs to break out of the slump he’s in. After going 8 for 14 with 2 home runs and 8 RBI, Wright is just 1 for 19 with 3 strike outs, no RBI and no walks. The Mets are 1-4 with just 13 runs scored during this slump. It’s also time for Reyes to wake up and Beltran to find his stroke. Without them, this team is not going to score runs and will not win.

Terrible... just terrible

And so, once again, the Mets waste an amazing performance from Johan Santana, and continue to be unable to win even ONE series on the road. It’s the worst road start for the Mets since 1983.

Tonight was one missed oppertunity after another. K-Rod looked bad last night in getting a save and he was bad again tonight in blowing one.

No matter how great Santana and Mike Pelfrey pitch… no matter how well Jose Reyes, David Wright, Rod Barahas and Ike Davis hit… no matter how fast Carlos Beltran gets back from injury… no matter how great they play at home… if this team cannot win on the road at at LEAST a .500 mark, they will not go anywhere.

This game should have been over by the 7th inning. Instead it’s going to be a long flight home and a lot of “What If” talk.

And please, the next time Jerry Manual send up Gark Mathews Jr to hit, the man should be immediately fired. Will SOMEONE get this total hack off the team?

TEAM NOTES: Well, the other night aginast the Padres was a night to forget. 18 runs? Ouch. No one had it last night. Lost in the shuffle was the fact that Oliver Perez gave up 2 runs in 2.2 inning of work and LOWERED his ERA. The Mets scored 6 runs in the first six innings and usually that means things should be good, but yesterday it was basically two field goals to the Padres two touchdowns, 2 two-point conversions and a safety.

Speaking of Oliver Perez, the Mets have made yet ANOTHER plea to the bewildered lefty to accept being sent down to work on his obviously messed up mechanics. This time the Mets told Perez he could go right to Florida and work with Phil Regan instead of going to Buffalo. No word on what Perez has said yet, but word is that many of the Mets players are extremely unhappy with Perez and perhaps will look to peer pressure him into accepting it. Perez has been adament about staying with the club so far and hasn’t given any signs he will relent. At this point the team does need to draw a line in the sand.

The team continues to look very shakey on the road. It’s quite strange that they can look so good at home and look so bad as visitors. The bizarre split makes it very hard to really get a firm grasp on who this team really is. Thankfully Mike Pelfrey and his 7-1 record and 2.56 ERA takes the mound tonight to try and right the ship.

Looks like Luis Castillo is now a platoon player. With the problems he’s been having with his foot, Mets skipper Jerry Manuel has been sitting Castillo vs. right-handers. “I’m going to probably go that way until Luis starts moving a little bit better on that foot,” Manuel told reporters. Alex Cora has been getting the bulk of those starts that Castillo sits during, but keep an eye on Daniel Murphy who is getting work in the minors at 2nd base. Word is, that Murphy can become the Mets version of Mark DeRosa and be able to start at a number of positions.

Jonathan Niese should be off the DL and back with the Mets in a starting role come this upcoming Saturday against the Marlins. He’ll take his spot and send Fernando Nieve back to the bullpen.

Fans still seems to be totally down on David Wright. While I will agree his strikeout total is concerning, I think once again Mets fans are barking at nothing. Wright’s numbers are lower then you would think they should be (especially his .258 bating average) but his numbers aren’t as bad as you might think. Tell me, what does Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun, Mark Texeria and Adam Dunn all have in commen? ALL have less RBIs and SBs and all but Utley and Dunn has the same or less home runs totals than Wright. Before this weekends explosion, so did Albert Pujlos. Wright has 8 home runs, 35 RBI and 9 SBs. He has struggled at different times this season and the strike outs are worrisome, but it’s not like he’s a liability. Relax will ya?

Mets Get a Big Lift from Big Pelf

Nine games into the season (and with only three wins), the Mets have one of their starting pitchers with a 2-0 record, a 1.38 ERA, 10 K’s and only 4 walks in 13 innings. This pitcher has twice stopped losing streaks.

If that was the only info you had, odds are you would say “That has to be Johan Santana.”

Amazingly though, it’s not. May I introduce one of the few bright spots for the Mets so far in 2010: Mike Pelfrey.

While it’s way too early to start proclaiming Pelfrey to be the #2 starter the Mets have been needing, he’s taken some strides to return to the success he enjoyed in 2008 when he won 13 games with a 3.72 ERA and began to establish himself as a solid starting pitcher.

One of the reason for his early success seems to be the addition of a split-fingered fastball to his repertoire. Mixing up his pitches has served him well, as seen yesterday in seven shutout innings, where he didn’t allow a walk… a big change from his last appearance in Coors Field when he allowed six earned runs and walked five, lasting only four innings in what became a 10 – 9 loss.

As everyone has been saying all through the offseason and into the first nine games… the mets NEED someone to step it up and have a solid 2010 for them to have a prayer to complete. Pelfrey, who was the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft, has been a highly touted pitcher for a while and after a great second half in 2008 has been expected to be a front end of the rotation guy.

As I stated before in earlier posts, I think Pelfrey has the ability to be the guy they need at the front end of the rotation. He’s a strong power pitcher with good stuff. Pelfrey’s biggest problem however… is Pelfrey. He has shown on occasion to allow a bad start to get into his head (like when he spent an hour doing running sprints in the Coors Field parking lot after his last disasterous start mentioned above) and has had issues with balks when he gets over excited on the mound.

Despite that, I believe he has it in him to be what the Mets need. Only time will tell, but right now he has given the Mets a huge lift with his great start. if he can keep up this type of performance, coupled with Santana, the season looks less bleak already.

Nice Job by Niese

Quick note about the Mets game tonight… was going back and forth on it sporatically, but what I saw of Jonathan Niese was encouraging. One night after a uneven start by John Maine, the Mets needed a lift, and while they didn’t get a win (the offense was flat) they did get a fairly solid performance from the young pitcher.

Fernando Tatis and Angel Pagan got their first starts of the 2010 season , Tatis made a nice play in the 3rd, picking up an errent throw by David Wright with two on and two out, and Pagan had two hits.

The best news of the night was Niese though. In a season where every starter besides Johan Santana seems to be a question mark, having Niese step up and be a solid turn in the rotation would be a welcome sight.